期刊
JOURNAL OF INVERSE AND ILL-POSED PROBLEMS
卷 28, 期 2, 页码 243-250出版社
WALTER DE GRUYTER GMBH
DOI: 10.1515/jiip-2020-0010
关键词
Dynamic system; time delay process; parameter identification; outbreak prediction; isolation
资金
- National Science Foundation of China (NSFC) [11971121]
- Science and Technology Commission of Shanghai Municipality under the Shanghai Rising-Star Program [19QA1403400]
In this paper, we propose a novel dynamical system with time delay to describe the outbreak of 2019-nCoV in China. One typical feature of this epidemic is that it can spread in the latent period, which can therefore be described by time delay process in the differential equations. The accumulated numbers of classified populations are employed as variables, which is consistent with the official data and facilitates the parameter identification. The numerical methods for the prediction of the outbreak of 2019-nCoV and parameter identification are provided, and the numerical results show that the novel dynamic system can well predict the outbreak trend so far. Based on the numerical simulations, we suggest that the transmission of individuals should be greatly controlled with high isolation rate by the government.
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