What are the impacts of climate policies on trade? A quantified assessment of the Paris Agreement for the G20 economies

Following the Paris Agreement, climate policies have been developing rapidly, consequently affecting all economic agents. To this extent, trade implications and competitiveness effects have been of prime concern to energy and climate policy makers. In this study, we employ the GEM-E3 hybrid CGE model to quantify the regional and sectoral trade impacts of climate mitigation scenarios. In line with the Paris Agreement, we assess a global implementation of NDCs and a global mitigation action consistent with the 2 degrees C target. The scenarios differ in both effort sharing and mitigation stringency, yet we find a reduction of global trade activity under both policy regimes. The key driver is the sharp decline of global demand for fossil fuels. Fossil fuels, a highly traded good, are substituted by domestically produced goods like electricity or by capital equipment that is traded with lower intensity. Decarbonization policies have an important impact on trade flows, affected by the relative stringency of action and the key characteristics of the regional economies. We identify regions that benefit from the emergence of new markets for clean energy goods, contrary to the fossil-fuel exporters, as well as regions that achieve a comparative advantage due to their preparedness from early mitigation action.