A Classification of Streamflow Patterns Across the Coastal Gulf of Alaska

Streamflow controls many freshwater and marine processes, including salinity profiles, sediment composition, fluxes of nutrients, and the timing of animal migrations. Watersheds that border the Gulf of Alaska (GOA) comprise over 400,000 km(2) of largely pristine freshwater habitats and provide ecosystem services such as reliable fisheries for local and global food production. Yet no comprehensive watershed-scale description of current temporal and spatial patterns of streamflow exists within the coastal GOA. This is an immediate need because the spatial distribution of future streamflow patterns may shift dramatically due to warming air temperature, increased rainfall, diminishing snowpack, and rapid glacial recession. Our primary goal was to describe variation in streamflow patterns across the coastal GOA using an objective set of descriptors derived from flow predictions at the downstream-most point within each watershed. We leveraged an existing hydrologic runoff model and Bayesian mixture model to classify 4,140 watersheds into 13 classes based on seven streamflow statistics. Maximum discharge timing (annual phase shift) and magnitude relative to mean discharge (amplitude) were the most influential attributes. Seventy-six percent of watersheds by number showed patterns consistent with rain or snow as dominant runoff sources, while the remaining watersheds were driven by rain-snow, glacier, or low-elevation wetland runoff. Streamflow classes exhibited clear mechanistic links to elevation, ice coverage, and other landscape features. Our classification identifies watersheds that might shift streamflow patterns in the near future and, importantly, will help guide the design of studies that evaluate how hydrologic change will influence coastal GOA ecosystems. Plain Language Summary Streams provide society with many benefits, but they are being dramatically altered by climate change and human development. The volume of flowing water and the timing of high and low flows are important to monitor because we depend on reliable streamflow for drinking water, hydroelectric power, and healthy fish populations. Organizations that manage water supplies need extensive information on streamflow to make decisions. Yet directly measuring flow is cost-prohibitive in remote regions like the Gulf of Alaska, which drains freshwater from an area greater than 400,000 km(2), roughly the size of California. To overcome these challenges, a series of previous studies developed a tool to predict historical river flows across the entire region. In this study, we used 33 years of those predictions to categorize different types of streams based on the amount, variability, and timing of streamflow throughout the year. We identified 13 unique streamflow patterns among 4,140 coastal streams, reflecting different contributions of rain, snow, and glacial ice. This new catalog of streamflow patterns will allow scientists to assess changes in streamflow over time and their impact to humans and other organisms that depend on freshwater.