期刊
IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON INDUSTRIAL INFORMATICS
卷 16, 期 3, 页码 1722-1732出版社
IEEE-INST ELECTRICAL ELECTRONICS ENGINEERS INC
DOI: 10.1109/TII.2019.2924326
关键词
Training; Load modeling; Forecasting; Load forecasting; Predictive models; Training data; Data models; Latent parameter; short-term load forecasting (STLF); transfer learning; weight assignment
类别
资金
- National Key Research and Development Program of China [2016YFB0900100]
- Shanghai Sailing Program [19YF1423700, TII-19-1476]
In this paper, by utilizing corresponding load data of source zones, a two-layer transfer-learning-based short-term load forecasting (STLF) architecture is proposed to improve forecasting accuracy of load in target zone. In the inner layer, the latent parameter is introduced to represent the latent factors that results in the differences in electricity consumption behavior between different zones. With the latent parameter as extra input, a latent parameter-assisted model suitable for both the load data of target zone and all source zones is built. Variant weights are assigned to datasets according to their fitness to the latent parameter-assisted model. To solve the weights, an iterative algorithm is developed in the outer layer. Case studies demonstrates that the proposed STLF architecture always improves the forecasting accuracy of classic STLF algorithms, especially when the load data of target zone is insufficient.
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