Multi-year prediction of European summer drought conditions for the agricultural sector

How Skillful are the Multiannual Forecasts of Atlantic Hurricane Activity?

(2018) Louis-Philippe Caron et al.   BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

Predicting near-term changes in the Earth System: A large ensemble of initialized decadal prediction simulations using the Community Earth System Model

(2018) S. G. Yeager et al.   BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

An R package for climate forecast verification

(2018) Nicolau Manubens et al.   ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE

Skilful Seasonal Predictions of Summer European Rainfall

(2018) Nick Dunstone et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Land-surface initialisation improves seasonal climate prediction skill for maize yield forecast

(2018) Andrej Ceglar et al.   Scientific Reports

Multi-model skill assessment of seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts over Europe

(2018) Niti Mishra et al.   CLIMATE DYNAMICS

Predicted Chance That Global Warming Will Temporarily Exceed 1.5 °C

(2018) D. M. Smith et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

User-oriented global predictions of the GPCC drought index for the next decade

(2018) Andreas Paxian et al.   METEOROLOGISCHE ZEITSCHRIFT

Summer drought predictability over Europe: empirical versus dynamical forecasts

(2017) Marco Turco et al.   Environmental Research Letters

Wheat yield loss attributable to heat waves, drought and water excess at the global, national and subnational scales

(2017) M Zampieri et al.   Environmental Research Letters

Will drought events become more frequent and severe in Europe?

(2017) Jonathan Spinoni et al.   INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY

Seasonal Climate Prediction: A New Source of Information for the Management of Wind Energy Resources

(2017) Verónica Torralba et al.   Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology

Detecting Improvements in Forecast Correlation Skill: Statistical Testing and Power Analysis

(2017) Stefan Siegert et al.   MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW

Decadal prediction of Sahel rainfall: where does the skill (or lack thereof) come from?

(2016) Elsa Mohino et al.   CLIMATE DYNAMICS

Probabilistic evaluation of decadal prediction skill regarding Northern Hemisphere winter storms

(2016) Tim Kruschke et al.   METEOROLOGISCHE ZEITSCHRIFT

Multiannual forecasts of Atlantic U.S. tropical cyclone wind damage potential

(2015) Louis-Philippe Caron et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Candidate Distributions for Climatological Drought Indices (SPI and SPEI)

(2015) James H. Stagge et al.   INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY

Comment on ‘Candidate distributions for climatological drought indices (SPI and SPEI)’ by James H. Staggeet al.

(2015) S. M. Vicente-Serrano et al.   INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY

Near-term prediction of impact-relevant extreme temperature indices

(2014) H. M. Hanlon et al.   CLIMATIC CHANGE

Statistical-dynamical downscaling for wind energy potentials: evaluation and applications to decadal hindcasts and climate change projections

(2014) Mark Reyers et al.   INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY

An assessment of CMIP5 multi-model decadal hindcasts over Australia from a hydrological viewpoint

(2014) Rajeshwar Mehrotra et al.   JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY

Prospects for decadal climate prediction in the Mediterranean region

(2014) Virginie Guemas et al.   QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

Evaluating decadal predictions of northern hemispheric cyclone frequencies

(2014) Tim Kruschke et al.   TELLUS SERIES A-DYNAMIC METEOROLOGY AND OCEANOGRAPHY

Decadal Climate Prediction: An Update from the Trenches

(2013) Gerald A. Meehl et al.   BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

A comparison of full-field and anomaly initialization for seasonal to decadal climate prediction

(2013) Doug M. Smith et al.   CLIMATE DYNAMICS

Improved forecast skill in the tropics in the new MiKlip decadal climate predictions

(2013) H. Pohlmann et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Multiyear climate predictions using two initialization strategies

(2013) W. Hazeleger et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) revisited: parameter fitting, evapotranspiration models, tools, datasets and drought monitoring

(2013) Santiago Beguería et al.   INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY

Hypothesis Testing for Autocorrelated Short Climate Time Series*

(2013) Virginie Guemas et al.   Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology

The Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System. Part I: Models and Initialization

(2013) William J. Merryfield et al.   MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW

The 2010-2012 drought in England and Wales

(2013) Mike Kendon et al.   Weather

Initialized near-term regional climate change prediction

(2013) F. J. Doblas-Reyes et al.   Nature Communications

Seasonal climate predictability and forecasting: status and prospects

(2013) Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes et al.   Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews-Climate Change

On the assessment of near-surface global temperature and North Atlantic multi-decadal variability in the ENSEMBLES decadal hindcast

(2012) J. García-Serrano et al.   CLIMATE DYNAMICS

Sensitivity of decadal predictions to the initial atmospheric and oceanic perturbations

(2012) H. Du et al.   CLIMATE DYNAMICS

Decadal prediction skill in a multi-model ensemble

(2012) Geert Jan van Oldenborgh et al.   CLIMATE DYNAMICS

A verification framework for interannual-to-decadal predictions experiments

(2012) L. Goddard et al.   CLIMATE DYNAMICS

Performance of Drought Indices for Ecological, Agricultural, and Hydrological Applications

(2012) Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano et al.   Earth Interactions

Reliability of decadal predictions

(2012) S. Corti et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Forecast skill of multi-year seasonal means in the decadal prediction system of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology

(2012) W. A. Müller et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Two Tales of Initializing Decadal Climate Prediction Experiments with the ECHAM5/MPI-OM Model

(2012) Daniela Matei et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Can a Decadal Forecasting System Predict Temperature Extreme Indices?*

(2012) Helen M. Hanlon et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

A Predictable AMO-Like Pattern in the GFDL Fully Coupled Ensemble Initialization and Decadal Forecasting System

(2012) Xiaosong Yang et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Forecasting the number of extreme daily events out to a decade ahead

(2012) Rosie Eade et al.   JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH

Is unequal weighting significantly better than equal weighting for multi-model forecasting?

(2012) Timothy DelSole et al.   QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design

(2011) Karl E. Taylor et al.   BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

Skillful predictions of decadal trends in global mean surface temperature

(2011) J. C. Fyfe et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

EC-Earth

(2010) Wilco Hazeleger et al.   BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

Improved Climate Simulation by MIROC5: Mean States, Variability, and Climate Sensitivity

(2010) Masahiro Watanabe et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

A review of drought concepts

(2010) Ashok K. Mishra et al.   JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY

Decadal Prediction

(2009) Gerald A. Meehl et al.   BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

A Multiscalar Drought Index Sensitive to Global Warming: The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index

(2009) Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

A global monthly land surface air temperature analysis for 1948–present

(2008) Yun Fan et al.   JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH