Risk factors for vertebral compression fracture after spine stereotactic body radiation therapy: Long-term results of a prospective phase 2 study

Purpose: To identify frequency, clinical relevance and risk factors for vertebral compression fracture (VCF) after spine stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) with long-term follow up (FU). Methods: From 2012 to 2015, 61 lesions (56 patients) were treated within a prospective multicenter phase 2 study (NCT01594892) of SBRT for painful vertebral metastases. Post-SBRT VCF were identified. Anatomical segments, normal and tumor tissue of treated vertebrae were segmented for volumetric analyses. Predictive factors for VCF were identified by logistic regression. Results: Median clinical and radiological FU for all patients was 16.2 months (range, 0-68.2) and 7.8 months (range, 0-66.9), respectively. Local metastasis control was observed in 82% of lesions at last imaging FU. Post-SBRT VCF occurred in 21 lesions (34.4%): 16.4% showed a progressive VCF, while a new VCF occurred in 18.0%. 3/56 (5.4%) patients developed painful VCF defined as pain increase by >= 2 on the visual analogue scale (VAS) and 2 (3.6%) patients required surgical stabilization. Pre-SBRT VCF, localization in the thoracic spine, Bilsky score >0, SINS score, pre-SBRT osteolytic volume and metastatic vertebral body (VB) involvement were predictive factors for VCF on univariate analysis. Relative VB involvement, osteolytic volume and pre-SBRT VCF remained in the multivariate logistic regression model that had AUC = 0.930, 83.3% sensitivity and 96.6% specificity. Conclusion: Spine SBRT resulted in favorable long-term pain and local metastasis control. Despite postSBRT VCF being observed after one third of treatments, this was symptomatic in only 5% of patients. Predictive factors for developing VCF were identified which could contribute to better selection of patients for spine SBRT. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.