期刊
PSYCHIATRY RESEARCH
卷 279, 期 -, 页码 9-14出版社
ELSEVIER IRELAND LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.psychres.2019.06.034
关键词
Psychosis; Prodrome; Psychosis-risk prediction; Risk calculator; Psychotic disorders; High-risk syndromes; Risk models
类别
资金
- National Institutes of Health [RO1MH094650, R21/R33MH103231, R01MH112545, R21MH110374, R21MH115231]
Early identification of individuals likely to develop psychosis is a priority for the field, resulting in the development of risk calculators that provide personalized estimates that an individual at clinical high-risk (CHR) will develop psychosis. The North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study (NAPLS) consortium and Shanghai At-Risk for Psychosis program have recently developed such calculators (NAPLS-2/SIPS-RC, respectively), but their discrimination performance has never been examined within the same sample. Moreover, validation studies of NAPLS-2 are limited in number and the SIPS-RC has not been cross-validated in a North American sample. The present research (N = 68) used the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) to examine the accuracy of the NAPLS-2 and SIPS-RC calculators for discriminating CHR converters and non-converters, as well as extend their use by examining their ability to predict illness progression over a two-year period. For conversion, the NAPLS-2 and SIPS-RC risk calculators demonstrated moderate (AUC = 0.71) and fair (AUC = 0.65) discrimination performance, respectively. Both calculators provided moderate accuracy for discriminating illness progression over two-years (NAPLS-2 AUC = 0.71/ SIPS-RC AUC = 0.76). We discuss implications for researchers and practitioners interested in using the NAPLS-2 and/or SIPS-RC and identify important steps for future research.
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