Trial-by-trial surprise-decoding model for visual and auditory binary oddball tasks

Having to survive in a continuously changing environment has driven the human brain to actively predict the future state of its surroundings. Oddball tasks are specific types of experiments in which this nature of the human brain is studied. Detailed mathematical models have been constructed to explain the brain's perception in these tasks. These models consider a subject as an ideal observer who abstracts a hypothesis from the previous stimuli, and estimates its hyper-parameters - in order to make the next prediction. The corresponding prediction error is assumed to manifest the subjective surprise of the brain. While the approach of earlier works to this problem has been to suggest an encoding model, we investigated the reverse model: if the stimuli's surprise is assumed as the cause of the observer's surprise, it must be possible to decode the surprise of each stimulus, for every single subject, given only their neural responses, i.e. to tell how unexpected a specific stimulus has been for them. Employing machine learning tools, we developed a surprise decoding model for binary oddball tasks. We constructed our model using the ideal observer proposed by Meyniel et al. in 2016, and applied it to three datasets, one with visual, one with auditory, and one with both visual and auditory stimuli. We demonstrated that our decoding model performs very well for both of the sensory modalities with or without the presence of the subject's motor response.