Article
Engineering, Geological
Suk Woo Kim, Kun Woo Chun, Minseok Kim, Filippo Catani, Byoungkoo Choi, Jung Il Seo
Summary: The study analyzed rainfall data for 613 shallow landslides in South Korea from 1963 to 2018 to determine rainfall thresholds and investigate the influence of antecedent rainfall. The results suggest that the southern region of the Korean Peninsula is more susceptible to rainfall-induced landslides, and the effect of antecedent rainfall conditions should be further tested considering regional climate and local site conditions for a better understanding of landslide occurrence.
Article
Environmental Sciences
Antonello Troncone, Luigi Pugliese, Enrico Conte
Summary: This study proposes a simple-to-use method for predicting the occurrence of shallow landslides due to rainfall. The method combines the evaluation of pore water pressure changes caused by infiltration with the calculation of the critical value of pore water pressure using the infinite slope scheme. It requires only a few input parameters, which can be obtained from conventional tests.
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Shalev Siman-Tov, Francesco Marra
Summary: In arid regions, the critical rainfall conditions for debris flow (DF) initiation are not well-known due to a lack of observations and data. In this study, high-resolution digital surface models and orthophotos were used to detect DFs on the arid slopes of the Dead Sea's northwestern margins. Weather radar rainfall estimates were also utilized to analyze the triggering and non-triggering storms. The study found that intense convective cells, preceded by non-negligible rainfall amounts, likely triggered the DFs.
NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Minu Treesa Abraham, Neelima Satyam, Ascanio Rosi, Biswajeet Pradhan, Samuele Segoni
Summary: Empirical and probabilistic approaches for defining rainfall thresholds are commonly used for forecasting rainfall induced landslides, but often result in higher false alarms. This study aims to improve the performance of conventional meteorological thresholds by considering the effect of soil moisture, using a probabilistic approach. Results show that a Bayesian probabilistic threshold derived using rainfall severity and soil wetness outperformed the conventional approaches, with potential for developing an operational landslide early warning system based on a combination of rainfall and soil moisture data.
Article
Engineering, Geological
Sanchitha Hema Sharendra Jayakody, Ryosuke Uzuoka, Kyohei Ueda, Jiawei Xu
Summary: This study shows that the intermittent patterns of antecedent rainfall have a significant influence on predicting landslide initiation and should be considered as a parameter for landslide early warning mechanisms.
Article
Engineering, Geological
Sanchitha Hema Sharendra Jayakody, Ryosuke Uzuoka, Kyohei Ueda, Jiawei Xu
Summary: This study investigated the influence of antecedent intermittent rainfall patterns on landslide initiation using centrifuge model testing. The results showed that not only cumulative rainfall, but also antecedent intermittent rainfall patterns have a significant effect on landslide initiation, suggesting the incorporation of this parameter into landslide early warning mechanisms.
Article
Engineering, Geological
G. La Porta, A. Leonardi, M. Pirulli, F. Cafaro, F. Castelli
Summary: Rainfall-induced shallow landslides often transform into flows, posing a severe hazard to infrastructure and human lives in mountainous areas worldwide. Back-analysis of previous events can inform risk assessment and the design of mitigation measures. However, conventional back-analysis exercises do not account for the occurrence of flows in sequences or surges, leading to potential inaccuracies in hazard assessment. In this paper, a novel time-resolving procedure is proposed to address this issue, which discretizes the event and tracks the post-failure behavior of each surge separately. The results of two case studies demonstrate that the time-resolving procedure can significantly impact the runout path, flooded area, and flow heights, highlighting the need for a review of historical cases and reassessment of current practices.
Article
Environmental Sciences
Bin Yu, Wenhong Chen, Wenkai Feng, Kan Liu, Longzhen Ye
Summary: Two heavy rainfall events in 2019 triggered numerous small-scale, shallow earthen landslides in Sanming City, Fujian Province, China. Aerial photographic interpretation and field surveys were conducted to understand the characteristics of these landslides. The analysis revealed 178 shallow landslides, with more than half occurring along roads and urban greenways. A model was tested to determine the probability thresholds for landslide occurrence, with the thresholds increasing the probability and frequency of landslides.
ENVIRONMENTAL EARTH SCIENCES
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Jianyin He, Haijun Qiu, Feihang Qu, Sheng Hu, Dongdong Yang, Yongdong Shen, Yan Zhang, Hesheng Sun, Mingming Cao
Summary: This study combined different models to evaluate the stability of landslides and found that the 3D model has a higher success rate in predicting landslides compared to the 1D model. Additionally, a new rainfall threshold analysis method was proposed, which can provide important reference for disaster early warning and prediction.
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Jessica C. Marotti, Guilherme J. C. Gomes, Raquel Q. Velloso, Euripedes A. Vargas Junior, Rafael S. Nunes, Nelson F. Fernandes
Summary: This study investigates landslides triggered by extreme precipitation in the Tijuca Massif, southeastern Brazil. The results show that soil depth and initial moisture conditions have minimal influence on the safety factor during extreme rainfall events, as the intensity and duration of rainfall are the main triggering factors.
Article
Environmental Sciences
Jing Li, Zhaofei Liu, Rui Wang, Xingxing Zhang, Xuan Liu, Zhijun Yao
Summary: This study evaluated the applicability of four satellite rainfall products in the Hengduan Mountain region and analyzed the critical rainfall and rainfall thresholds for triggering debris flows. The results showed that CMORPH and GPM performed well in simulating rainfall consistency and extreme conditions. The findings of this study have important implications for predicting and warning debris flow hazards.
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Prodip Mandal, Shraban Sarkar
Summary: The Darjeeling Himalayan region is known for heavy rainfall during the monsoon, resulting in frequent shallow landslides which disrupt traffic on National Highway-10. Developing an early warning system for landslide occurrence can minimize risks. The study estimated rainfall thresholds for landslides and found that slate lithology areas are more susceptible to landslides.
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Defu Tong, Aijun Su, Fei Tan, Jiandong Tang, Xiongwei Yi
Summary: Water-rich slopes like the Pingyikou Landslide in China's Three Gorges Reservoir area are susceptible to failure due to continuous rainfall. This study used detailed field investigations and monitoring of rainfall, water level, and displacement to understand the deformation process and genetic mechanism of the landslide. Numerical simulations and unsaturated seepage analysis were also conducted to study the impact of different initial conditions and antecedent rainfall on slope stability. The results showed that rainfall and groundwater level strongly influenced the slope deformation, and more than 10 days of antecedent rainfall should be considered for slope design and control.
JOURNAL OF EARTH SCIENCE
(2023)
Article
Engineering, Geological
Raul Oorthuis, Marcel Hurlimann, Jean Vaunat, Jose Moya, Antonio Lloret
Summary: This study analyzed 12 years of rainfall and torrential flow data, as well as 8 years of soil hydrologic conditions in the Rebaixader catchment in Central Pyrenees, Spain. The results showed that soil hydrological conditions are key factors for triggering torrential flows and can improve early-warning predictions.
Article
Engineering, Civil
Guotao Zhang, Peng Cui, Carlo Gualtieri, Junlong Zhang, Nazir Ahmed Bazai, Zhengtao Zhang, Jiao Wang, Jinbo Tang, Rong Chen, Mingyu Lei
Summary: This study focused on understanding the control mechanisms of stormflow generation with complex and nonlinear behaviors, particularly the three-linear threshold behaviors related to hydrological connectivity. Using data from a forest watershed in China, it was found that stormflow generation was influenced by antecedent wetness and rainfall amounts, with distinct thresholds identified for different stages of flood response. Above a certain threshold, lateral-connectivity extension and gravity-driven water movements contributed to flash flood disasters, while subsurface flow dominated stormflow generation during heavy rainstorms. These findings contribute to a better understanding of threshold-based hydrological behaviors and subsurface stormflow generation mechanisms in humid forest watersheds.
JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
(2021)
Article
Marine & Freshwater Biology
G. Flor-Blanco, V. Bruschi, L. Adrados, M. J. Dominguez-Cuesta, F. J. Gracia-Prieto, S. Llana-Funez, G. Flor
Summary: This paper presents an analysis of the main morphologies observed in the coastal cliffs of northern Spain and proposes a hypothesis on the origin and evolution of this rocky coast. It provides a detailed inventory of different landforms and highlights the geological heritage of this protected coast.
ESTUARINE COASTAL AND SHELF SCIENCE
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Rafaello Bergonse, Sandra Oliveira, Jose Luis Zezere, Francisco Moreira, Paulo Flores Ribeiro, Miguel Leal, Jose Manuel Lima e Santos
Summary: This study explores the relationship between fire regime and potential biophysical controls in central Portugal, finding that land use, seasonal rainfall, and temperature are major factors influencing the variability of fire regime properties. The study highlights the importance of shrubland and spontaneous herbaceous vegetation, as well as spring rainfall, in influencing the cumulative percentage of area burned and the Gini concentration index of burned area.
SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
(2022)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Maria Xofi, Jose Carlos Domingues, Pedro P. Santos, Susana Pereira, Sergio C. Oliveira, Eusebio Reis, Jose Luis Zezere, Ricardo A. C. Garcia, Paulo B. Lourenco, Tiago Miguel Ferreira
Summary: This paper aims to provide input for a parametric-based seismic vulnerability assessment methodology for the unreinforced masonry building stock in Lisbon Metropolitan Area (LMA) by identifying and analyzing a set of indicators. The parameters describing the building's physical vulnerability are defined using data from the 2011 Census survey, and the level of exposure in the study area is characterized. Risk outputs are presented and briefly discussed.
GEOMATICS NATURAL HAZARDS & RISK
(2022)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Ana Rodrigues Rilo, Alexandre Manuel de Oliveira Soares Tavares, Paula Maria dos Santos Freire, Jose Luis Zezere
Summary: This research presents a methodology to extract relevant information from multiple sources and build databases for estuarine flood risk assessment. The study applied multiple correspondence analysis to extract informative indicators and developed an integrated framework for estuarine flood risk assessment. The framework is driven by two dimensions and reveals the compounding effects of triggers of estuarine floods.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF DISASTER RISK SCIENCE
(2022)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Katerina Papagiannaki, Olga Petrucci, Michalis Diakakis, Vassiliki Kotroni, Luigi Aceto, Cinzia Bianchi, Rudolf Brazdil, Miquel Grimalt Gelabert, Moshe Inbar, Abdullah Kahraman, Ozgenur Kilic, Astrid Krahn, Heidi Kreibich, Maria Carmen Llasat, Montserrat Llasat-Botija, Neil Macdonald, Mariana Madruga de Brito, Michele Mercuri, Susana Pereira, Jan Rehor, Joan Rossello Geli, Paola Salvati, Freddy Vinet, Jose Luis Zezere
Summary: This data paper presents the FFEM-DB, a multinational database that contains data on 2,875 flood fatalities from Europe and the broader Mediterranean region. The database provides detailed information on demographics, behavior, and environmental factors, allowing researchers to analyze flood-related mortality. Its standardized methodology enables cross-regional comparisons, and the database is regularly updated with anonymized data.
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
M. J. Dominguez-Cuesta, P. Gonzalez-Pumariega, P. Valenzuela, C. Lopez-Fernandez, L. Rodriguez-Rodriguez, D. Ballesteros, M. Mora, M. Melendez, F. Herrera, M. A. Marigil, L. Pando, J. Cuervas-Mons, M. Jimenez-Sanchez
Summary: This study focuses on the Tazones Lighthouse landslide, a key site on the Jurassic Cantabrian Coast in Asturias, Spain. Through a high-resolution multiapproach methodology, the study examines the structure and kinematic characteristics of the landslide, and identifies the main factors contributing to the slope movement, including bedrock discontinuities, rainfall, soil moisture, and waves.
Article
Environmental Sciences
Ana Rilo, Alexandre Oliveira Tavares, Paula Freire, Jose Luis Zezere, Ivan D. Haigh
Summary: This paper introduces a spin-off database of estuarine flood events built upon previously existing databases and a framework for working with qualitative past flood information using multiple correspondence analysis. By exploring the relation between information acquired from categories and their relation to dimensions, the most relevant estuarine flood risk indicators were extracted, demonstrating the transversal importance of triggers.
Article
Chemistry, Multidisciplinary
Andreia Rodrigues, Aldina Santiago, Luis Laim, Domingos Xavier Viegas, Jose Luis Zezere
Summary: This paper discusses the hazards and consequences of extreme wildfires, particularly when they approach the wild-urban interface. By analyzing the 2009 Victorian bushfires and the 2017 Portugal wildfires, the article highlights the reasons behind the failure of mitigation plans and the importance of improving community resilience. It also examines the characteristics and causes of death of wildfire victims, shedding light on the actions taken by people in the face of approaching fires.
APPLIED SCIENCES-BASEL
(2022)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Pedro Pinto Santos, Jose Luis Zezere, Susana Pereira, Jorge Rocha, Alexandre Oliveira Tavares
Summary: This study conducted a spatiotemporally comparable assessment of social vulnerability and its drivers in Portugal. The findings show an improvement in social vulnerability, mainly driven by economic conditions and aging and depopulation.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF DISASTER RISK SCIENCE
(2022)
Article
Engineering, Civil
Maria Xofi, Tiago Miguel Ferreira, Jose Carlos Domingues, Pedro Pinto Santos, Susana Pereira, Sergio C. Oliveira, Eusebio Reis, Jose Luis Zezere, Ricardo A. C. Garcia, Paulo B. B. Lourenco
Summary: This paper presents a procedure for applying an index-based vulnerability assessment method to assess the seismic risk of reinforced concrete and unreinforced masonry buildings in the Lisbon Metropolitan Area (LMA). The methodology utilizes data from the 2011 national population and housing Census. The results are then combined with seismic hazard factors to create a GIS tool for mapping seismic risk in the LMA.
JOURNAL OF EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING
(2023)
Review
Chemistry, Multidisciplinary
Rosa Maria Mateos, Roberto Sarro, Andres Diez-Herrero, Cristina Reyes-Carmona, Juan Lopez-Vinielles, Pablo Ezquerro, Monica Martinez-Corbella, Guadalupe Bru, Juan Antonio Luque, Anna Barra, Pedro Martin, Agustin Millares, Miguel Ortega, Alejandro Lopez, Jorge Pedro Galve, Jose Miguel Azanon, Susana Pereira, Pedro Pinto Santos, Jose Luis Zezere, Eusebio Reis, Ricardo A. C. Garcia, Sergio Cruz Oliveira, Arnaud Villatte, Anne Chanal, Muriel Gasc-Barbier, Oriol Monserrat
Summary: Coastal regions in Southwest Europe have undergone significant changes due to tourism-related urban development, making them highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. This study analyzed extreme weather events along the Atlantic and Mediterranean coasts of Southwest Europe from 2009 to 2020, quantifying their impacts on fatalities, injuries, and economic losses. The results showed an upward trend in the number of events, as well as human losses and damages. The Mediterranean coast, especially the Spanish Mediterranean coast, had a higher exposure due to rapid tourism growth and inadequate preparation for marine storms.
APPLIED SCIENCES-BASEL
(2023)
Article
Ecology
Paulo Flores Ribeiro, Francisco Moreira, Maria Joao Canadas, Ana Novais, Miguel Leal, Sandra Oliveira, Rafaello Bergonse, Jose Luis Zezere, Jose Lima Santos
Summary: This study proposes a new framework to design wildfire mitigation policies based on land use choices to promote low-risk fire regimes. The results highlight the importance of reducing forest concentration and increasing agricultural or shrubland areas to effectively reduce fire risk. The framework also serves as a policy simulation tool, demonstrating the cost-effectiveness of annual payments supporting agricultural or shrubland areas in reducing high-risk fire regimes.
Article
Ecology
Francisco Moreira, Miguel Leal, Rafaello Bergonse, Maria Joao Canadas, Ana Novais, Sandra Oliveira, Paulo Flores Ribeiro, Jose Luis Zezere, Jose Lima Santos
Summary: Fire regimes in central Portugal have undergone changes in recent decades, with increased fire incidence and burn concentration. These changes are influenced by territorial features, including population density, land use, and vegetation. The associations between fire regimes and these features differ across two time periods, reflecting varying climate and socio-economic contexts. Maintaining a certain percentage of farmland can help mitigate the increased wildfire risks associated with different management and climate conditions. The findings contribute to understanding the temporal evolution of fire regimes and provide insights for spatial planning and wildfire management policies.
Article
Ecology
Rafaello Bergonse, Sandra Oliveira, Jose Luis Zezere, Francisco Moreira, Paulo Flores Ribeiro, Miguel Leal, Jose Manuel Lima Santos
Summary: We analyzed the fire regimes in central Portugal and examined the impact of biophysical drivers on the differences in these regimes. Using civil parishes as units of analysis, we employed three parameters to describe the fire regime over a 44-year period. The results allowed us to identify four types of fire regime, which were significantly influenced by factors such as land use, slope, and rainfall. Our findings emphasize the importance of vegetation type, availability, and regeneration rate, as well as topography, in shaping fire regimes in the study area.
Article
Ecology
Rafaello Bergonse, Sandra Oliveira, Pedro Santos, Jose Luis Zezere
Summary: Wildfire risk assessment is crucial for fire management, as it provides tools to analyze and aggregate information on multiple dimensions. This study quantified and integrated the risk dimensions of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability (including its social aspect) to create a wildfire risk index for civil parishes in central mainland Portugal. The results showed variations in the importance of each dimension in different parishes, and identified high-risk areas in the center-south and northeast regions. The proposed methodology facilitates an integrated assessment of wildfire risk, aiding in resource allocation and policy adjustment.
