Article
Forestry
Evrim A. Sahan, Nesibe Kose, H. Tuncay Guner, Valerie Trouet, Cagatay Tavsanoglu, Uenal Akkemik, H. Nuzhet Dalfes
Summary: In this study, tree-ring based fire reconstruction was used to analyze the spatiotemporal patterns of past fires in different climate types of western Anatolia. The study found a decrease in fire frequency after the late 19th and early 20th century, with a period between 1853 and 1934 characterized by high fire frequency and overlapping with the longest and most severe drought period in the past 550 years. Fire occurrence was closely related to drought and wet conditions, and fire suppression activities resulted in fuel accumulation and increased risk of intense fires.
FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT
(2022)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
John T. Abatzoglou, David E. Rupp, Larry W. O'Neill, Mojtaba Sadegh
Summary: The large high-impact fires in western Oregon in September 2020 were caused by a combination of dry air intrusion and strong east winds. These compound extremes were unmatched in the observational record, highlighting the importance of assessing wildfire hazard risk with a multivariate lens.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Zhongwei Liu, Jonathan M. Eden, Bastien Dieppois, Matthew Blackett
Summary: Wildfires have become more frequent and intense in many parts of the world, with climate change being a major contributor. A study using an empirical-statistical method found that the likelihood of climate-related fire risk has increased by at least a factor of four in approximately 40% of fire-prone regions due to rising global temperature. Furthermore, a set of extreme fire weather events occurring in recent years were mostly associated with increased likelihood due to global temperature rise.
Article
Environmental Sciences
Ellen Whitman, Sean A. Parks, Lisa M. Holsinger, Marc-Andre Parisien
Summary: Climate change has significant implications for wildfire activity in North American ecosystems, and a study in northwestern Canada has found a significant increase in fire activity over the past 50 years, which is closely related to annual climate variability. The increasing fire activity may have consequences for forest ecology and habitat availability.
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2022)
Article
Biodiversity Conservation
Hang Xing, Keyan Fang, Qichao Yao, Feifei Zhou, Tinghai Ou, Jane Liu, Shengfang Zhou, Shixiong Jiang, Yao Chen, Maowei Bai, Jing Ming Chen
Summary: Climate change has led to an increase in extreme climate events worldwide, which is an influential factor in the occurrence of wildfires in China. However, the impact of changes in extreme climate on wildfires in different climate zones of China is still unclear. This study analyzed the relationship between 26 extreme climate indices and wildfire occurrences in different regions of China from 2005 to 2018. The findings show that wildfire occurrences in different regions are correlated differently with temperature and precipitation. Recommendations for further study on the relationship between wildfire occurrence and extreme climate in specific regions are also provided.
ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Carolina Gallo, Jonathan M. Eden, Bastien Dieppois, Igor Drobyshev, Peter Z. Fule, Jesus San-Miguel-Ayanz, Matthew Blackett
Summary: Weather and climate have a significant impact on global wildfire patterns and the distribution of burnable areas. According to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR6), fire danger is expected to increase in many regions due to warmer temperatures and drier conditions in the near future. General circulation models (GCMs) are important tools for understanding the evolution of fire danger under a changing climate. However, current fire risk scenarios have not fully considered the errors and biases in GCMs. This study evaluates the representation of fire weather indicators simulated by 16 GCMs and emphasizes the importance of GCM evaluation and selection for developing reliable projections of future climate-driven fire danger.
GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT
(2023)
Article
Agronomy
Theodore M. Giannaros, Georgios Papavasileiou
Summary: The recent increase in destructive fire seasons worldwide has raised concerns about the impact of climate change on the frequency, intensity, and extent of wildfires. Analysis of fire weather extremes and burned area in Europe shows a positive correlation, indicating that fire weather is a prominent driver of fire activity. The study suggests that fire weather extremes in Europe have become more frequent and are affecting larger areas, occurring earlier and later in the fire season. The occurrence of statistically significant change-points in the time series of extreme fire weather days further supports this finding.
AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY
(2023)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Mohammad Reza Alizadeh, John T. Abatzoglou, Charles H. Luce, Jan F. Adamowski, Arvin Farid, Mojtaba Sadegh
Summary: Research indicates a significant increase in burned area and occurrence of forest fires in mountainous regions of the western United States over the past few decades, especially above 2,500 meters in elevation. There is a strong interannual relationship between high-elevation fires and warm season vapor pressure deficit, suggesting the impact of climate warming on high-elevation flammability barrier is crucial.
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
(2021)
Editorial Material
Ecology
Grant D. Linley, Chris J. Jolly, Tim S. Doherty, William L. Geary, Dolors Armenteras, Claire M. Belcher, Rebecca Bliege Bird, Andrea Duane, Michael-Shawn Fletcher, Melisa A. Giorgis, Angie Haslem, Gavin M. Jones, Luke T. Kelly, Calvin K. F. Lee, Rachael H. Nolan, Catherine L. Parr, Juli G. Pausas, Jodi N. Price, Adrian Regos, Euan G. Ritchie, Julien Ruffault, Grant J. Williamson, Qianhan Wu, Dale G. Nimmo
Summary: This study conducted a structured review of the term "megafire" in peer-reviewed scientific literature to address the ambiguity surrounding its meaning. The researchers found considerable variability in the criteria used to define megafire, with the most common threshold being fires larger than 10,000 ha. They also proposed a definition for megafire as fires exceeding 10,000 ha, as well as introducing the terms "gigafire" (> 100,000 ha) and "terafire" (> 1,000,000 ha) for even larger scale fires.
GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND BIOGEOGRAPHY
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Yikang Zhou, Shunping Ji, Timothy A. Warner
Summary: In this paper, using a large amount of remote sensing and weather data, the authors reveal new findings about fire patterns in the Eurasian Subarctic, including variations in fire occurrence among sub-regions, differences in fire size and propagation speed compared to adjacent regions, and the advancing start dates of fire seasons. The factors contributing to regional fire patterns are also analyzed.
Article
Computer Science, Interdisciplinary Applications
Michael A. Storey, Michael Bedward, Owen F. Price, Ross A. Bradstock, Jason J. Sharples
Summary: This study demonstrates a Bayesian probabilistic ROS modeling approach using actual wildfire observations and explanatory data, providing highly informative probabilistic predictions. Bayesian modeling, by explicitly considering uncertainty in the data, is suitable for capturing the complexity of wildfire spread.
ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Yulong Bao, Masato Shinoda, Kunpeng Yi, Xiaoman Fu, Long Sun, Elbegjargal Nasanbat, Na Li, Honglin Xiang, Yan Yang, Bulgan DavdaiJavzmaa, Banzragch Nandintsetseg
Summary: This study analyzes the spatial and temporal patterns of wildland fires in the Mongolian Plateau from 2001 to 2021 using NASA burned area data. The study reveals that an average of 1.3 x 10(4) km(2) is burned by fires annually in the region, with spring and autumn being the peak fire seasons. Most of the wildfires occur in the northeastern and southwestern regions on the border of Mongolia and China. The Dornod aimag in Mongolia and Hulunbuir in China are the most fire-prone regions that require prioritized fire protection.
Article
Environmental Sciences
Peng Gao, Adam J. Terando, John A. Kupfer, J. Morgan Varner, Michael C. Stambaugh, Ting L. Lei, J. Kevin Hiers
Summary: This study used ensemble statistical methods and a physical chemistry fire frequency model to project changing potential fire probabilities in the contiguous United States under different climate scenarios. The results overwhelmingly show that potential fire probabilities are expected to increase across the entire US in the future, with rising temperatures being the primary mechanism for the projected increases. High-risk areas are projected to experience greater annual fire occurrence probabilities, especially under the higher greenhouse gas emission scenario.
SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
(2021)
Article
Biodiversity Conservation
Sarah C. McColl-Gausden, Lauren T. Bennett, Dan A. Ababei, Hamish G. Clarke, Trent D. Penman
Summary: Predictions show significant shifts in fire regimes for alpine ash forests in the future, with increased intensity and frequency of wildfires. About 67% of current alpine ash distribution is expected to face immature risks over a 100-year period, particularly for patches on the outskirts of the current distribution, closer to roads, or surrounded by drier landscapes at lower elevations.
DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Karen A. McKinnon, Andrew Poppick, Isla R. Simpson
Summary: Global humidity has been increasing due to warming, but the Southwest United States has experienced a decrease in summer humidity since 1950, particularly on hot days, linked to decreased soil moisture rather than atmospheric moisture transport. Uncertainty exists in projections due to variations in precipitation trends among models. The recent decrease in summer soil moisture in the region is explained by declines in June soil moisture, with future projections of hot, dry days uncertain due to differences in trends in soil moisture and precipitation.
NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
(2021)
Article
Ecology
Adam L. Mahood, Michael J. Koontz, Jennifer K. Balch
Summary: A key challenge in ecology is understanding how multiple drivers interact to precipitate persistent vegetation state changes. In the sagebrush shrublands of the western United States, widespread annual grass invasion has increased fuel connectivity, which increases the size and spatial contiguity of fires, leading to postfire monocultures of introduced annual grasses (IAG). But the mechanisms by which prefire invasion and fire occurrence are linked to higher postfire flammability are not fully understood.
Article
Ecology
Douglas J. Shinneman, Eva K. Strand, Mike Pellant, John T. Abatzoglou, Mark W. Brunson, Nancy F. Glenn, Julie A. Heinrichs, Mojtaba Sadegh, Nicole M. Vaillant
Summary: Sagebrush ecosystems in the United States have been declining due to agricultural and urban development, invasive species, altered fire regimes, resulting in loss of biodiversity and wildlife habitat. Fuel treatments including fuel breaks are being implemented to combat these issues. Challenges such as changes in climate and invasive species need to be considered for effective fuels management.
RANGELAND ECOLOGY & MANAGEMENT
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Jianning Ren, Erin J. Hanan, Jeffrey A. Hicke, Crystal A. Kolden, John T. Abatzoglou, Christina (Naomi) L. Tague, Ryan R. Bart, Maureen C. Kennedy, Mingliang Liu, Jennifer C. Adam
Summary: Although natural disturbances play a key role in structuring ecosystems and watersheds worldwide, climate change has intensified many disturbance regimes, which can have negative effects on ecosystem processes and services. This study used a modelling framework to investigate the effects of beetle outbreaks on wildfire dynamics in a semiarid watershed. The results showed that wildfire extent and severity varied across different phases of beetle outbreaks and were influenced by fire regime and fuel availability. This framework can aid in predicting fire hazards and improving our understanding of wildfire responses.
JOURNAL OF ADVANCES IN MODELING EARTH SYSTEMS
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Kristina A. Dahl, John T. Abatzoglou, Carly A. Phillips, J. Pablo Ortiz-Partida, Rachel Licker, L. Delta Merner, Brenda Ekwurzel
Summary: Increases in burned forest area in the western US and southwestern Canada have been influenced by a rise in vapor pressure deficit (VPD) caused by human-induced climate change. This study uses various models to determine the contribution of emissions from major carbon producers to the long-term increase in VPD and cumulative forest fire area in the region. The research finds that these emissions contributed significantly to the rise in VPD and the area burned by forest fires. As the impacts of fires and droughts continue to escalate, this research provides insights for discussions about the responsibility of carbon producers in addressing climate risks.
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Biodiversity Conservation
Sean A. A. Parks, Lisa M. M. Holsinger, John T. T. Abatzoglou, Caitlin E. E. Littlefield, Katherine A. A. Zeller
Summary: Species undergoing climate-induced range shifts may not be able to successfully move among protected areas due to factors such as distance, human land uses, and lack of analogous climates. More than half of the global protected land area and two-thirds of the number of protected units are at risk of failure in climate connectivity. This raises doubts about the effectiveness of protected areas as steppingstones for species under climate change, and highlights the need for innovative land management strategies and assisted colonization.
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY
(2023)
Review
Ecology
Emily J. Fusco, Evelyn M. Beaury, Bethany A. Bradley, Michelle Cox, Catherine S. Jarnevich, Adam L. Mahood, R. Chelsea Nagy, Ty Nietupski, Jessica E. Halofsky
Summary: This article summarizes the sources and applications of invasive plant distribution data, discusses the potential applications and limitations of existing data types in research and management, and proposes a path for improving the use of invasive plant data in future research and management.
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Marco Turco, John T. Abatzoglou, Sixto Herrera, Yizhou Zhuang, Sonia Jerez, Donald D. Lucas, Amir AghaKouchak, Ivana Cvijanovic
Summary: Record-breaking summer forest fires in California have significantly increased due to anthropogenic climate change, rather than natural factors. The future is expected to see a further increase in fire area, highlighting the need for proactive adaptations.
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
(2023)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Mohammad Reza Alizadeh, John T. Abatzoglou, Jan Adamowski, Arash Modaresi Rad, Amir AghaKouchak, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Mojtaba Sadegh
Summary: The authors find that there has been widespread increases in fire danger across the mountainous western US from 1979 to 2020, with the most acute trends occurring at high-elevation regions above 3000 m. Previous studies have identified elevation-dependent warming trends, but research on their impact on fire danger remains limited.
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
J. T. Abatzoglou, C. A. Kolden, A. P. Williams, M. Sadegh, J. K. Balch, A. Hall
Summary: Downslope wind-driven fires account for a significant portion of wildfires and burned area in the western US and have caused major impacts on human life and infrastructure. These fires are primarily ignited by humans, occur closer to population centers, and have unique characteristics such as occurring under dry fuel conditions and exhibiting distinct seasonality. Analyses show an increase in the number and burned area of downslope wind-driven fires over the past few decades, highlighting the need for increased fire prevention and adaptation strategies to mitigate future risks.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Karen J. Heeter, Grant L. Harley, John T. Abatzoglou, Kevin J. Anchukaitis, Edward R. Cook, Bethany L. Coulthard, Laura A. Dye, Inga K. Homfeld
Summary: In the summer of 2021, the Pacific Northwest region of North America experienced a two-week-long extreme heatwave, breaking historical records. Tree-ring records indicate that summer temperatures in 2021, as well as the rate of warming in recent decades, are unprecedented in the past thousand years for the PNW. Without efforts to reduce anthropogenic emissions, climate models project a rapidly increasing risk of regular occurrence of extreme summer temperatures similar to 2021 in the PNW, with a 50% chance of yearly occurrence by 2050. The 2021 summer temperatures serve as a benchmark and motivation for communities in historically temperate climates to include extreme heat impacts in their climate change adaptation strategies.
NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE
(2023)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Arash Modaresi Rad, John T. Abatzoglou, Erica Fleishman, Miranda H. Mockrin, Volker C. Radeloff, Yavar Pourmohamad, Megan Cattau, J. Michael Johnson, Philip Higuera, Nicholas J. Nauslar, Mojtaba Sadegh
Summary: Understanding of the vulnerability of populations exposed to wildfires is limited. A study assessed the social vulnerability of populations exposed to wildfire in California, Oregon, and Washington from 2000 to 2021 using an index from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The results showed a substantial increase in the number of people exposed to fire, with the highest increase observed among those with high social vulnerability.
Article
Green & Sustainable Science & Technology
Arash Modaresi Rad, John T. Abatzoglou, Jason Kreitler, Mohammad Reza Alizadeh, Amir AghaKouchak, Nicholas Hudyma, Nicholas J. Nauslar, Mojtaba Sadegh
Summary: Exposure to wildfires is increasing across the US, posing risks to both population and critical infrastructure. From 2000 to 2019, 594,850 people resided within the perimeters of large wildfires, with a significant increase in primary population exposure. Additionally, roads and transmission powerlines are also widely exposed to wildfires, with a notable increase over the past two decades.
NATURE SUSTAINABILITY
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Seunghyun Lee, John T. Abatzoglou
Summary: Record-high prevented planting of staple crops in the US Corn Belt due to heavy rainfall has raised concerns over crop production. This study examines the effects of excess moisture on planting and predicts future changes in prevented planting. The findings suggest that increased water surplus leads to a higher likelihood of prevented planting, and disregarding evaporative demand amplifies this effect. The study also indicates a potential decrease in prevented planting in the future, but a different model considering only precipitation predicts an increase.
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH COMMUNICATIONS
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Jeffrey S. Jenkins, John T. Abatzoglou, David E. Rupp, Erica Fleishman
Summary: In Washington, Oregon, and California, recreational activities were responsible for 12% of human-caused wildfires and 8% of the burned area from 1992-2020. These wildfires not only increase fire suppression costs but also have the potential to limit traditional recreational activities like camping. Understanding the impact of human and climatic factors on recreation-caused wildfires could be valuable for policy and management decisions.
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH COMMUNICATIONS
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Daniel L. Swain, John T. Abatzoglou, Crystal Kolden, Kristen Shive, Dmitri A. Kalashnikov, Deepti Singh, Edward Smith
Summary: Escalating wildfire activity in the western United States has adverse societal impacts, but intentional use of fire as a vegetation management tool can reduce the risk of destructive fires. Global warming will decrease the overall number of prescribed fire days, but winter may become a favorable window for prescribed fire in northern states.
COMMUNICATIONS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT
(2023)