4.3 Article

Modification Effects of Population Expansion, Ageing, and Adaptation on Heat-Related Mortality Risks Under Different Climate Change Scenarios in Guangzhou, China

出版社

MDPI
DOI: 10.3390/ijerph16030376

关键词

climate change; years of life lost; population expansion; ageing; adaptation; population health

资金

  1. National Key Research and Development Program of China [2018YFA0606200, 2018YFA0606202]
  2. Guangzhou Science and Technology Project [201704020194]
  3. Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province [S2013010014670]
  4. Guangdong Provincial Development and Reform Commission [201616]
  5. Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research [CRRP2016-10MY-Huang]
  6. National Science and Technology Major Program [2012CB955503]

向作者/读者索取更多资源

(1) Background: Although the health effects of future climate change have been examined in previous studies, few have considered additive impacts of population expansion, ageing, and adaptation. We aimed to quantify the future heat-related years of life lost (YLLs) under different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios and global-scale General Circulation Models (GCMs), and further to examine relative contributions of population expansion, ageing, and adaptation on these projections. (2) Methods: We used downscaled and bias-corrected projections of daily temperature from 27 GCMs under RCP2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 scenarios to quantify the potential annual heat-related YLLs in Guangzhou, China in the 2030s, 2060s, and 2090s, compared to those in the 1980s as a baseline. We also explored the modification effects of a range of population expansion, ageing, and adaptation scenarios on the heat-related YLLs. (3) Results: Global warming, particularly under the RCP8.5 scenario, would lead to a substantial increase in the heat-related YLLs in the 2030s, 2060s, and 2090s for the majority of the GCMs. For the total population, the annual heat-related YLLs under the RCP8.5 in the 2030s, 2060s, and 2090s were 2.2, 7.0, and 11.4 thousand, respectively. The heat effects would be significantly exacerbated by rapid population expansion and ageing. However, substantial heat-related YLLs could be counteracted by the increased adaptation (75% for the total population and 20% for the elderly). (4) Conclusions: The rapid population expansion and ageing coinciding with climate change may present an important health challenge in China, which, however, could be partially counteracted by the increased adaptation of individuals.

作者

我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。

评论

主要评分

4.3
评分不足

次要评分

新颖性
-
重要性
-
科学严谨性
-
评价这篇论文

推荐

Article Neurosciences

Self-deception: Distorted metacognitive process in ambiguous contexts

Dongmei Mei, Zijun Ke, Zhihao Li, Wenjian Zhang, Dingguo Gao, Lijun Yin

Summary: Self-deception is a biased cognitive process that involves obtaining or maintaining false beliefs to enhance or diminish oneself. Studies have shown that self-deception is more likely to occur when faced with easier cheating opportunities, and it is associated with changes in frontal slow wave amplitude and activity in the anterior medial prefrontal cortex.

HUMAN BRAIN MAPPING (2023)

Article Endocrinology & Metabolism

Longitudinal effects of school policies on children's eating behaviors and weight status: findings from the childhood obesity study in China megacities

Yixin Ding, Lu Ma, Peng Jia, Hong Xue, Fei Xu, Li Zhao, Bo Xue, Yun Wang, Youfa Wang

Summary: School policies in China can reduce children's unhealthy eating behaviors and obesity risk, particularly in megacities. The effects of these policies are modified by children's age, sex, and baseline weight status.

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF OBESITY (2023)

Letter Medicine, General & Internal

Association of Sugar-Sweetened, Artificially Sweetened, and Unsweetened Coffee Consumption With All-Cause and Cause-Specific Mortality In response

Dan Liu, Qingmei Huang, Weiqi Song, Zhihao Li, Chen Mao

ANNALS OF INTERNAL MEDICINE (2023)

Article Oncology

Association of screening status, polygenic risk score and environmental risk factors with colorectal cancer incidence and mortality risks

Jiaojiao Ren, Peidong Zhang, Zhihao Li, Xiru Zhang, Dong Shen, Peiliang Chen, Qingmei Huang, Pingming Gao, Chen Mao

Summary: This study investigated the association between screening history, genetic risk, environmental risk factors, and colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence and mortality risks using UK Biobank data. The results showed that screening history was associated with lower CRC incidence and mortality risks. Participants with high genetic and environmental risk and no screening history had significantly increased risks of CRC incidence and mortality. Participants with high genetic risk and low environmental risk had increased risks of CRC incidence and mortality. Participants benefited more from screenings for CRC mortality than for CRC incidence risk. Higher environmental risk was associated with increased risks of CRC incidence and mortality within each category of genetic risk.

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CANCER (2023)

Article Public, Environmental & Occupational Health

Impact of Implementing and Lifting COVID-19 Lockdown on Study and Physical Activity Patterns Among Youths in China

Shujuan Yang, Wanqi Yu, Peng Jia

Summary: This study investigated how the study and physical activity patterns of youths changed during and after the COVID-19 lockdown. The results showed that during the lockdown, youths' physical activity frequency significantly decreased while study time increased. After the lockdown, physical activity frequency partially recovered, and study time further increased. These findings have important implications for policymakers and educational administrators in devising effective policies.

DISASTER MEDICINE AND PUBLIC HEALTH PREPAREDNESS (2023)

Review Medicine, General & Internal

Preventive effects of 13 different drugs on colorectal cancer: a network meta-analysis

Qi Fu, Huini Liao, Zhihao Li, Xing Chen, Xuan Zhang, Ji Di

Summary: This study evaluated the preventive effect of 13 drugs on colorectal cancer (CRC) through network meta-analysis and found that allopurinol had the best effect. These results provide evidence-based basis for the clinical application of these drugs.

ARCHIVES OF MEDICAL SCIENCE (2023)

Article Immunology

Vaccination against Varicella Zoster Virus Infection in Less Developed Regions of Guangdong, China: A Cross-Sectional Serosurveillance Study

Huimin Chen, Chumin Liang, Xiaorong Huang, Qianqian Ruan, Zhaowan Li, Ximing Hu, Lilian Zeng, Huifang Lin, Jialing Li, Xin Xie, Qi Zhu, Tao Liu, Limei Sun, Jiufeng Sun

Summary: Low vaccination rates against VZV in low-income areas of Zhanjiang and Heyuan, China contribute to high infection rates, highlighting the need for improved vaccination coverage.

VACCINES (2023)

Article Rehabilitation

Translation and validation of the Korean version of the QUAlity of Life Assessment in Spina bifida for Teenagers (QUALAS-T-K)

Seung Hyeon Yang, Yoonhye Ji, Yong Seung Lee, Eunjeong Bae, Jieun Park, Hyeseon Yun, Konrad M. Szymanski, Chang Gi Park, Sang Woon Kim, Eun Kyoung Choi

Summary: The purpose of this study was to translate and validate the QUALAS-T into Korean to evaluate health-related quality of life in adolescents with spina bifida. The QUALAS-T-K demonstrated excellent internal consistency, stability, and correlations with the KIDSCREEN-27. It is considered a convenient and reliable tool for assessing the HRQOL of adolescents with spina bifida.

DISABILITY AND REHABILITATION (2023)

Article Environmental Sciences

Mortality burden based on the associations of ambient PM2.5 with cause-specific mortality in China: Evidence from a death-spectrum wide association study (DWAS)

Tao Liu, Weiwei Gong, Chunliang Zhou, Guoxia Bai, Ruilin Meng, Biao Huang, Haoming Zhang, Yanjun Xu, Ruying Hu, Zhulin Hou, Yize Xiao, Junhua Li, Xiaojun Xu, Donghui Jin, Mingfang Qin, Qinglong Zhao, Yiqing Xu, Jianxiong Hu, Jianpeng Xiao, Guanghao He, Zuhua Rong, Fangfang Zeng, Pan Yang, Dan Liu, Lixia Yuan, Ganxiang Cao, Zhiqing Chen, Siwen Yu, Shangfeng Yang, Cunrui Hung, Yaodong Du, Min Yu, Lifeng Lin, Xiaofeng Liang, Wenjun Ma

Summary: This study comprehensively investigated the association between short-term exposure to PM2.5 and cause-specific mortality in China. The results showed that each 10 μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 concentration (lag03) was associated with a 0.80% rise in total mortality. Females, children <= 5 years, and old people >= 70 years had higher mortality risk.

ECOTOXICOLOGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL SAFETY (2023)

Article Computer Science, Information Systems

Understanding and extending the geographical detector model under a linear regression framework

Hang Zhang, Guanpeng Dong, Jinfeng Wang, Tong-Lin Zhang, Xiaoyu Meng, Dongyang Yang, Yong Liu, Binbin Lu

Summary: This study establishes the connection between the q-statistic in the Geographical Detector Model (GDM) and the R-squared in linear regression models, showing that GDM tends to underestimate the importance of variables. An integrated approach combining spatial econometrics model and game theory based-Shapley value method is proposed to quantify variable importance. A case study on land desertification in Africa reveals the direct and indirect effects of human activity, which are underestimated in the classic GDM.

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHICAL INFORMATION SCIENCE (2023)

Article Geriatrics & Gerontology

Influences of long-term care insurance on pulmonary and urinary tract infections among older people with disability

Hongyun Liu, Chuanteng Feng, Bin Yu, Hua Ma, Yuchen Li, Jinhui Wu, Birong Dong, Zihang Wang, Peng Jia, Qingyu Dou, Shujuan Yang

Summary: Long-term care insurance (LTCI) can reduce all-cause, pulmonary infection (PI), and urinary tract infection (UTI)-related hospitalizations in older people with disability (OPWD), with stronger effects observed over time and in certain sociodemographic groups.

JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN GERIATRICS SOCIETY (2023)

Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Causal inference from cross-sectional earth system data with geographical convergent cross mapping

Bingbo Gao, Jianyu Yang, Ziyue Chen, George Sugihara, Manchun Li, Alfred Stein, Mei-Po Kwan, Jinfeng Wang

Summary: This paper presents a causal inference model based on cross-sectional Earth System data for revealing complex nonlinear causal associations. The model performs well in detecting weak to moderate causations between variables with insignificant correlations and limited temporal variations. It is also advantageous in identifying the primary causation direction and revealing bidirectional asymmetric causation.

NATURE COMMUNICATIONS (2023)

Article Environmental Sciences

Integrated 1D, 2D, and 3D CNNs Enable Robust and Efficient Land Cover Classification from Hyperspectral Imagery

Jinxiang Liu, Tiejun Wang, Andrew Skidmore, Yaqin Sun, Peng Jia, Kefei Zhang

Summary: In this study, a novel CNN framework that integrates 1D, 2D, and 3D CNNs was proposed to improve the land cover classification accuracy of hyperspectral images. By combining spatial and spectral features, the proposed method achieved high classification accuracy in two datasets while significantly reducing training time.

REMOTE SENSING (2023)

Review Remote Sensing

A review on street view observations in support of the sustainable development goals

Chun Yin, Ningyezi Peng, Yuchen Li, Yuanyuan Shi, Shujuan Yang, Peng Jia

Summary: In order to achieve the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, effective and scalable approaches are needed to measure and monitor global progress towards the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Satellite data, although commonly used for SDG assessment, have limitations due to a top-down perspective and technical issues. Street view imagery (SVI) has emerged as a valuable supplement to monitor SDGs by providing an eye-level view of the environment. This review summarizes the applications of SVI in relation to SDGs and highlights the need for further research on the potential mechanisms between SVI-based features and SDGs.

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF APPLIED EARTH OBSERVATION AND GEOINFORMATION (2023)

Article Cardiac & Cardiovascular Systems

Ventriculo-arterial coupling for predicting cardiac index increase in infants after heart surgery

Wenjuan Li, Yongxuan Peng, Zhihao Li, Jihong Huang

Summary: The aim of this study was to test the ability of ventriculo-arterial coupling (VAC) to predict cardiac index (CI) response after milrinone infusion. The results showed that high VAC and high Ea were independently associated with cardiac index responders in infants who underwent cardiac surgery and received milrinone infusion. Additionally, there was a decrease in the infant's VAC, Ea, and systemic vascular resistance index after milrinone infusion.

INTERDISCIPLINARY CARDIOVASCULAR AND THORACIC SURGERY (2023)

暂无数据