Latent demand for zero-emissions vehicles in Canada (Part 1): Insights from a design space exercise

We explore consumer demand for three types of zero-emissions vehicles (ZEVs): plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), battery electric vehicles (BEVs), and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (HFCVs). We assess latent demand, defined as what ZEV sales could be if they were fully available (in a wide variety of makes and models), and if consumers were fully aware of their existence. Using an in-depth, Reflexive Participant approach to data collection, our survey instrument includes two measures of latent demand: a design space exercise and a stated choice experiment. The survey was completed by a representative sample of 2123 new vehicle-buying households in Canada in 2017. Part 1 (this paper) focuses on the design space exercise, which allows consumers to design a conventional, hybrid, or ZEV drivetrain, including specific attribute levels. Under higher and lower price conditions, 14% and 21% of respondents (respectively) select a ZEV, with most selecting PHEVs (11% and 12%), followed by BEVs (2.2% and 5.4%), and HFCVs (1.5% and 3.6%). Most respondents who design a PHEV or HFCV as their first choice select a conventional or hybrid vehicle as their second choice, while BEV designers tend to select a PHEV as their second choice. Further, those who select PHEVs and BEVs have higher levels of environmental-oriented lifestyle engagement and altruistic values, whereas respondents who select HFCVs score lower for both constructs. Results provide one measure of latent demand, while also indicating heterogeneity in demand and motivations. In Part 2 (Kormos et al., this issue), we summarize and compare results from a stated choice experiment.