期刊
THEORETICAL BIOLOGY AND MEDICAL MODELLING
卷 16, 期 -, 页码 -出版社
BMC
DOI: 10.1186/s12976-019-0102-8
关键词
Epidemic; Epidemiological model; Mathematical model; Cumulative incidence; Influenza
资金
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS) Program for Advancing Strategic International Networks to Accelerate the Circulation of Talented Researchers
- Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development [JP18fk0108050]
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science KAKENHI [16KT0130, 17H04701, 17H05808, 18H04895]
- Health and Labour Sciences Research Grant [H28-AIDS-General-001]
- Inamori Foundation
- Telecommunication Advancement Foundation
- Japan Science and Technology Agency (JST) CREST program [JPMJCR1413]
- Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research [18H04895] Funding Source: KAKEN
BackgroundSocial contact surveys can greatly help in quantifying the heterogeneous patterns of infectious disease transmission. The present study aimed to conduct a contact survey in Japan, offering estimates of contact by age and location and validating a social contact matrix using a seroepidemiological dataset of influenza.MethodsAn internet-based questionnaire survey was conducted, covering all 47 prefectures in Japan and including a total of 1476 households. The social contact matrix was quantified assuming reciprocity and using the maximum likelihood method. By imposing several parametric assumptions for the next-generation matrix, the empirical seroepidemiological data of influenza A (H1N1) 2009 was analysed and we estimated the basic reproduction number, R-0.ResultsIn total, the reported number of contacts on weekdays was 10,682 whereas that on weekend days was 8867. Strong age-dependent assortativity was identified. Forty percent of weekday contacts took place at schools or workplaces, but that declined to 14% on weekends. Accounting for the age-dependent heterogeneity with the known social contact matrix, the minimum value of the Akaike information criterion was obtained and R-0 was estimated at 1.45 (95% confidence interval: 1.42, 1.49).ConclusionsSurvey datasets will be useful for parameterizing the heterogeneous transmission model of various directly transmitted infectious diseases in Japan. Age-dependent assortativity, especially among children, along with numerous contacts in school settings on weekdays implies the potential effectiveness of school closure.
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