Accessibility or Innovation? Store Shopping Trips versus Online Shopping

The increasing penetration of online shopping will have major effects on physical stores. And the question is: In which areas will consumers replace most physical shopping with online shopping? Two apparently competing hypotheses were tested: the diffusion of innovation hypothesis, suggesting openness to new technologies; and the efficiency hypothesis, suggesting accessibility gains. Whether the innovation hypothesis has lost its importance in favor of the efficiency hypothesis was also questioned. The study area was a polycentric urban area in the Netherlands. We distinguished between books, clothes, and groceries. It was assumed that shoppers' decisions to buy a particular good online or not, and the share of online shopping relative to in-store shopping for this good, were basically driven either by shoppers' willingness to adopt the new technology of e-shopping or by shoppers' accessibility to shops. Support was found for both hypotheses, although the impact of shopping seemed limited and varied between different types of goods. In the end, e-shopping behavior remains primarily shaped by households who are open to new technologies, and to a limited extent by efficiency considerations.