4.8 Article

Drought losses in China might double between the 1.5 degrees C and 2.0 degrees C warming

出版社

NATL ACAD SCIENCES
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1802129115

关键词

drought; drought losses; projections; global warming; China

资金

  1. National Key R&D Program of China [2017YFA0603701]
  2. National 1000 Talent Program [Y474171]
  3. National Natural Science foundation of China [41671211, 41661144027]

向作者/读者索取更多资源

We project drought losses in China under global temperature increase of 1.5 degrees C and 2.0 degrees C, based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), a cluster analysis method, and intensity-loss rate function. In contrast to earlier studies, to project the drought losses, we predict the regional gross domestic product under shared socioeconomic pathways instead of using a static socioeconomic scenario. We identify increasing precipitation and evapotranspiration pattern for the 1.5 degrees C and 2.0 degrees C global warming above the preindustrial at 2020-2039 and 2040-2059, respectively. With increasing drought intensity and areal coverage across China, drought losses will soar. The estimated loss in a sustainable development pathway at the 1.5 degrees C warming level increases 10-fold in comparison with the reference period 1986-2005 and nearly threefold relative to the interval 2006-2015. However, limiting the temperature increase to 1.5 degrees C can reduce the annual drought losses in China by several tens of billions of US dollars, compared with the 2.0 degrees C warming.

作者

我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。

评论

主要评分

4.8
评分不足

次要评分

新颖性
-
重要性
-
科学严谨性
-
评价这篇论文

推荐

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Estimation of economic losses from tropical cyclones in China at 1.5°C and 2.0°C warming using the regional climate model COSMO-CLM

Shanshan Wen, Yanjun Wang, Buda Su, Chao Gao, Xue Chen, Tong Jiang, Hui Tao, Thomas Fischer, Guojie Wang, Jianqing Zhai

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY (2019)

Article Environmental Sciences

Development of an Ice Jam Flood Forecasting System for the Lower Oder RiverRequirements for Real-Time Predictions of Water, Ice and Sediment Transport

Karl-Erich Lindenschmidt, Dirk Carstensen, Wolfgang Froehlich, Bernd Hentschel, Stefan Iwicki, Michael Koegel, Michal Kubicki, Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz, Cornelia Lauschke, Adam Lazarow, Helena Los, Wlodzimierz Marszelewski, Tomasz Niedzielski, Marcin Nowak, Boguslaw Pawlowski, Michael Roers, Stefan Schlaffer, Beata Weintrit

Article Environmental Sciences

Impacts of 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming on winter snow depth in Central Asia

Yun Li, Hui Tao, Buda Su, Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz, Tong Jiang

SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT (2019)

Article Water Resources

Flood risk and its reduction in China

Z. W. Kundzewicz, Buda Su, Yanjun Wang, Jun Xia, Jinlong Huang, Tong Jiang

ADVANCES IN WATER RESOURCES (2019)

Review Environmental Sciences

Climate Variability and Floods-A Global Review

Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz, Malgorzata Szwed, Iwona Pinskwar

Article Environmental Sciences

Changes in risk of extreme weather events in Europe

Wolfgang Kron, Petra Loew, Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz

ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & POLICY (2019)

Article Environmental Sciences

Snow-Cover Area and Runoff Variation under Climate Change in the West Kunlun Mountains

Xiaofei Ma, Wei Yan, Chengyi Zhao, Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz

Article Environmental Sciences

Modelling Climate Change's Impact on the Hydrology of Natura 2000 Wetland Habitats in the Vistula and Odra River Basins in Poland

Joanna O'Keeffe, Pawel Marcinkowski, Marta Utratna, Mikolaj Piniewski, Ignacy Kardel, Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz, Tomasz Okruszko

Article Environmental Sciences

From atmosfear to climate action

Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz, Piotr Matczak, Ilona M. Otto, Philipp E. Otto

ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & POLICY (2020)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Model-based reconstruction and projections of soil moisture anomalies and crop losses in Poland

Mikolaj Piniewski, Pawel Marcinkowski, Joanna O'Keeffe, Mateusz Szczesniak, Anna Nierobca, Jerzy Kozyra, Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz, Tomasz Okruszko

THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY (2020)

Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Distribution pattern of Tugai forests species diversity and their relationship to environmental factors in an arid area of China

Yong Zeng, Chengyi Zhao, Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz, Guanghui Lv

PLOS ONE (2020)

Article Environmental Sciences

Comparison of Changing Population Exposure to Droughts in River Basins of the Tarim and the Indus

Anqian Wang, Yanjun Wang, Buda Su, Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz, Hui Tao, Shanshan Wen, Jiancheng Qin, Yu Gong, Jiang Tong

EARTHS FUTURE (2020)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Choice of potential evapotranspiration formulas influences drought assessment: A case study in China

Jian Zhou, Yanjun Wang, Buda Su, Anqian Wang, Hui Tao, Jianqing Zhai, Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz, Tong Jiang

ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH (2020)

Article Environmental Sciences

Variability of global mean annual temperature is significantly influenced by the rhythm of ocean-atmosphere oscillations

Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz, Iwona Pinskwar, Demetris Koutsoyiannis

SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT (2020)

Article Geography

Observed changes in precipitation totals in Poland

Iwona Pinskwar, Adam Chorynski, Dariusz Graczyk, Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz

GEOGRAFIE (2019)

暂无数据