Article
Environmental Sciences
Francois Duchene, Rafiq Hamdi, Bert Van Schaeybroeck, Steven Caluwaerts, Rozemien De Troch, Lesley de Cruz, Piet Termonia
Summary: This study uses a statistical-dynamical computationally-cheap method to downscale climate projections for Brussels. The results show that under future global warming, the summer mean temperature in Brussels will increase, but the Urban Heat Island intensity will not increase. However, the number of heatwave days and heat stress days will increase.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Adrienne M. Wootten, Keith W. Dixon, Dennis Adams-Smith, Renee A. McPherson
Summary: The study highlights the significant impact of observational station data conversion methods and downscaling technique choices on future precipitation projections, including wet-day frequency, intensity of precipitation extremes, and the length of multi-day wet and dry periods. The choice of downscaling technique can also affect the climate change signal, potentially causing change signals to reverse in some cases.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
S. Y. Souleymane, Fabio Madonna, Federico Serva, Ismaila Diallo, Benjamin Quesada
Summary: There is room for improvement in climate models' ability to reproduce the present climate. The choice of data sets used for model assessment is crucial. This study evaluates multiple climate models and reanalysis data sets using in-situ measurements, revealing seasonal and subregional variations in biases.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Daniel Abel, Katrin Ziegler, Imoleayo Ezekiel Gbode, Torsten Weber, Vincent O. Ajayi, Seydou B. Traore, Heiko Paeth
Summary: This study evaluates the performance of climate models in representing rainy season climate indices and crop-specific agricultural indices in different subregions of Africa. The models generally simulate precipitation characteristics well, but struggle in reproducing characteristics of two rainy seasons. The representation of crop water need is influenced by the model family and forcing data. Climate models, particularly regional climate models, show higher skill in representing the indices.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
James M. Ciarlo, Erika Coppola, Adriano Fantini, Filippo Giorgi, XueJie Gao, Yao Tong, Russell H. Glazer, Jose Abraham Torres Alavez, Taleena Sines, Emanuela Pichelli, Francesca Raffaele, Sushant Das, Melissa Bukovsky, Moetasim Ashfaq, Eun-Soon Im, Thanh Nguyen-Xuan, Claas Teichmann, Armelle Remedio, Thomas Remke, Katharina Buelow, Torsten Weber, Lars Buntemeyer, Kevin Sieck, Diana Rechid, Daniela Jacob
Summary: This paper proposes a new metric to quantify the added value of regional climate models (RCMs) by comparing the probability density functions of models and observational data. Results show that RCMs exhibit higher added value in areas of complex topography and tropical regions.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Christopher Jung, Dirk Schindler
Summary: This study assessed the future development of winter storm intensity in Central Europe, finding a significant increase in wind gust intensity towards the end of the 21st century under different concentration pathways. The methodology proposed in the study allows for quantifying uncertainty associated with winter storm projections and developing climate-sensitive storm damage models.
WEATHER AND CLIMATE EXTREMES
(2021)
Article
Engineering, Civil
G. Z. Ndhlovu, Y. E. Woyessa
Summary: This study successfully simulated hydrological processes in the Zambezi River Basin using high-resolution climate data and SWAT model, which showed that using gridded climate data for hydrological modeling in data scarce regions is an effective method.
JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Moetasim Ashfaq, Deeksha Rastogi, Joy Kitson, Muhammad Adnan Abid, Shih-Chieh Kao
Summary: This article discusses the selection issue of Global Climate Models (GCMs) in downscaling studies and proposes a weighted averaging technique for ranking. The study finds that the sensitivity of GCMs to evaluation suite size varies and highlights the importance of comprehensive evaluation for selecting GCMs objectively.
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Seth McGinnis, Linda Mearns
Summary: The NA-CORDEX data archive includes output from regional climate models covering most of North America, with variables available in CF-compliant netCDF format. The data, from 1950 to 2100, has been bias-corrected for use in impacts research and stakeholder decision-making, supporting appropriate use of the data in climate services.
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Maria Chara Karypidou, Eleni Katragkou, Stefan Pieter Sobolowski
Summary: The region of southern Africa is highly vulnerable to climate change and is projected to experience severe precipitation shortages. This study compares different satellite products and gauge-based datasets to assess the changes in the region. The results show good agreement between satellite and gauge-based products in spatial pattern and trends, but overestimated trends by regional climate simulations. The higher-resolution regional simulations performed better than global simulations in reproducing the annual cycle and extreme precipitation indices. However, reproducing key phenomena still poses a challenge for the models.
GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT
(2022)
Article
Ecology
David H. Klinges, James P. Duffy, Michael R. Kearney, Ilya M. D. Maclean
Summary: Microclimate models rely on macroclimate data as input. However, the resolution of these inputs can affect the accuracy of microclimate predictions. This study presents an R language package, mcera5, which provides convenient access and processing of ERA5 climate datasets, enhancing the speed and accuracy of microclimate predictions.
METHODS IN ECOLOGY AND EVOLUTION
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Antoine Doury, Samuel Somot, Sebastien Gadat, Aurelien Ribes, Lola Corre
Summary: Providing reliable information on climate change at local scale is a major challenge. This study proposes a hybrid downscaling method that combines the strengths of statistical downscaling methods and Regional Climate Models. By using a neural network, a statistical RCM-emulator is built to generate daily maps of near-surface temperature. The emulator demonstrates excellent ability to reproduce the complex spatial structure and daily variability.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Hai Tao, Ahmed H. Al-Sulttani, Sinan Q. Salih, Mustafa K. A. Mohammed, Mohammad Amir Khan, Beste Hamiye Beyaztas, Mumtaz Ali, Salah Elsayed, Shamsuddin Shahid, Zaher Mundher Yaseen
Summary: Estimating total water availability is crucial for planning sustainable development in arid water-scarce areas. This study developed a high-resolution water availability dataset for Iraq by downscaling GRACE satellite data using machine learning algorithms and ERA5 meteorological data. The results showed that the developed technique can be applied in regions with limited in-situ observations to generate high-resolution water resource datasets.
ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Alfonso Hernanz, Carlos Correa, Marta Dominguez, Esteban Rodriguez-Guisado, Ernesto Rodriguez-Camino
Summary: There are two main approaches to downscale global climate projections: dynamical and statistical downscaling. This study compares a statistical downscaling model (SDM) based on machine learning with six regional climate models (RCMs) from EURO-CORDEX. The SDM outperforms the RCMs in almost all evaluated metrics, demonstrating its potential as an alternative to RCMs for regional climate information.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Dannell Quesada-Chacon, Jorge Bano-Medina, Klemens Barfus, Christian Bernhofer
Summary: This study employed deep learning models to derive high-resolution near-surface climate projections, including daily 1 km data of precipitation, water vapor pressure, radiation, wind speed, and temperature. The transfer functions developed using the perfect prognosis statistical downscaling methodology showed satisfactory results and provided adequate and relevant projections for impact modelers. The downscaled multivariate ensemble could drive more accurate and diverse impact studies in the region, although some caveats were observed for specific projections.
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Jan Nyssen, Martijn Debever, Gezahegne Gebremeskel, Bart De Wit, Kiros Meles Hadgu, Steven De Vriese, Jeffrey Verbeurgt, Amaury Frankl, Tulu Besha, Jan Kropacek, Astrid Forceville, Biadgilgn Demissie
Summary: The archive of aerial photographs dating from 1935-1941 in Ethiopia provides historical value and adds an extended time depth of 30 years for geographical studies. Through scanning and georeferencing, these photos are now accessible for scientific research.
GEOSCIENCE DATA JOURNAL
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Abdisa Kawo Koji, Roeland Van Malderen, Eric Pottiaux, Bert Van Schaeybroeck
Summary: Atmospheric water vapor plays a crucial role in the climate and hydrological processes in Ethiopia, but the analysis of its spatiotemporal variability is challenging due to the lack of long-term observational data. In this study, the researchers compared GPS data with ERA5 reanalysis data and found a good agreement between the two datasets at most sites, albeit with a slight wet bias in the GPS data compared to ERA5.
Article
Environmental Sciences
Estifanos Addisu Yimer, Bert Van Schaeybroeck, Hans Van de Vyver, Ann van Griensven
Summary: This study explores the most appropriate probability distribution for water balances in Ethiopia and finds that the Genlog distribution is the best fit. It also highlights the importance of drought index selection and the differences between standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and standardized precipitation actual evapotranspiration index (SPAEI) in drought monitoring.
Article
Environmental Sciences
Claire Demoury, Raf Aerts, Bram Vandeninden, Bert Van Schaeybroeck, Eva M. De Clercq
Summary: Temperature has a significant impact on health, with both low and high temperatures associated with increased risk of cardiovascular and respiratory mortality. The sensitivity to temperature varies among different age groups and genders, and individuals living in developed areas are more vulnerable to high temperatures. There is no confounding effect of air pollutants on the results.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH
(2022)
Article
Economics
Jan Nyssen, Emnet Negash, Bert Van Schaeybroeck, Kiara Haegeman, Sofie Annys
Summary: During the 2021 conflict in Tigray, farming in the region was severely impacted by looting, destruction, and the vulnerability of farmers. Despite these challenges, Tigrayan smallholder farming showed resilience through community self-organization and strategic shifts in agricultural activities.
DEFENCE AND PEACE ECONOMICS
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Joren Van Nieuwenhuyse, Bert Van Schaeybroeck, Steven Caluwaerts, Jonathan De Deyn, Andy Delcloo, Rozemien De Troch, Rafiq Hamdi, Piet Termonia
Summary: The impact of climate change and emission scenarios on air pollution can be estimated using regional climate models (RCMs). However, interactions between weather and air pollutants are complex and require meteorological parameters that are not commonly available for RCM ensembles. Stagnant atmospheric conditions, which often coincide with pollution peaks, can be captured with widely-available RCM data.
Article
Environmental Sciences
Claire Demoury, Katrien De Troeyer, Finaba Berete, Raf Aerts, Bert Van Schaeybroeck, Johan Van der Heyden, Eva M. De Clercq
Summary: This study found a significant association between extreme temperatures and overall natural and respiratory mortality. Certain individual characteristics and residential factors modulated this association, and air pollutants also had an impact on the effects.
SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Francois Duchene, Rafiq Hamdi, Bert Van Schaeybroeck, Steven Caluwaerts, Rozemien De Troch, Lesley de Cruz, Piet Termonia
Summary: This study uses a statistical-dynamical computationally-cheap method to downscale climate projections for Brussels. The results show that under future global warming, the summer mean temperature in Brussels will increase, but the Urban Heat Island intensity will not increase. However, the number of heatwave days and heat stress days will increase.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Abdisa Kawo, Bert Van Schaeybroeck, Roeland Van Malderen, Eric Pottiaux
Summary: The study explores the relationship between precipitable water vapor (PWV) and heavy rainfall over Ethiopia. The Regional Climate Models (RCMs) from CORDEX are used for this research. The models show good performance in reproducing the annual cycle of PWV but have biases in very dry and tropical wet climate zones. The future scenarios suggest an increase in PWV, but changes in daily heavy rainfall are lower, potentially due to overall drying in Northwestern Ethiopia.
Article
Astronomy & Astrophysics
Hans van de Vyver, Bert Van Schaeybroeck, Lesley De Cruz, Rafiq Hamdi, Piet Termonia
Summary: This study proposes a bias-adjustment method for extreme precipitation intensity using intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) modeling to preserve the scaling equation for different accumulation levels. A validation is conducted using hourly precipitation data from 28 regional climate model projections of the EURO-CORDEX ensemble over Belgium. The scaling-based adjustment methods improve upon previous methods, identify an optimal method, and reveal problems with analytical quantile mapping methods. The ensemble mean of the adjusted extreme precipitation intensity follows the scale-invariance property and is consistent with observed extreme intensities, demonstrating the added value of IDF modeling in bias-adjustment.
EARTH AND SPACE SCIENCE
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Jordis S. Tradowsky, Sjoukje Y. Philip, Frank Kreienkamp, Sarah F. Kew, Philip Lorenz, Julie Arrighi, Thomas Bettmann, Steven Caluwaerts, Steven C. Chan, Lesley De Cruz, Hylke de Vries, Norbert Demuth, Andrew Ferrone, Erich M. Fischer, Hayley J. Fowler, Klaus Goergen, Dorothy Heinrich, Yvonne Henrichs, Frank Kaspar, Geert Lenderink, Enno Nilson, Friederike E. L. Otto, Francesco Ragone, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Roop K. Singh, Amalie Skalevag, Piet Termonia, Lisa Thalheimer, Maarten van Aalst, Joris Van den Bergh, Hans Van de Vyver, Stephane Vannitsem, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Bert Van Schaeybroeck, Robert Vautard, Demi Vonk, Niko Wanders
Summary: In July 2021, extreme rainfall in Western Europe caused severe flooding and infrastructure damage. The study found that anthropogenic climate change has increased the intensity and frequency of such rainfall events, and future global warming is expected to further amplify these impacts.
Article
Environmental Sciences
Zenaida Chitu, Roxana Bojariu, Liliana Velea, Bert Van Schaeybroeck
Summary: Circulatory-system diseases are the leading cause of death in Romania, with temperature being a significant factor in mortality. The urban heat island effect in Bucharest further exacerbates this relationship, particularly for women. Future climate change is projected to increase mortality rates, especially for vulnerable groups such as women and the elderly.
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Parisa Hosseinzadehtalaei, Bert Van Schaeybroeck, Piet Termonia, Hossein Tabari
Summary: Climate change has different impacts on different types of drought, with greater uncertainty and signal-to-noise ratios for agricultural drought compared to meteorological drought. This global study compares climate change signals, uncertainty, and signal-to-noise ratios between meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural droughts. The study found that the spatial extent and magnitude of drought characteristics increase from meteorological to hydrological to agricultural drought.
WEATHER AND CLIMATE EXTREMES
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Jonathan Demaeyer, Jonas Bhend, Sebastian Lerch, Cristina Primo, Bert Van Schaeybroeck, Aitor Atencia, Zied Ben Bouallegue, Jieyu Chen, Markus Dabernig, Gavin Evans, Jana Faganeli Pucer, Ben Hooper, Nina Horat, David Jobst, Janko Merse, Peter Mlakar, Annette Moeller, Olivier Mestre, Maxime Taillardat, Stephane Vannitsem
Summary: Statistical postprocessing of medium-range weather forecasts is crucial, but evaluating the relative performance of different methods has been challenging. To address this, we introduce the first version of EUPPBench, a dataset that aims to facilitate and standardize the evaluation process.
EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCE DATA
(2023)
Article
Water Resources
Estifanos Addisu Yimer, Ryan T. Bailey, Bert Van Schaeybroeck, Hans van de Vyver, Lorenzo Villani, Jiri Nossent, Ann van Griensven
Summary: In this study, the SWAT+gwflow model is evaluated for regional applications in the Scheldt river basin, and the water balance components and groundwater-surface water interactions within the basin are investigated. The results show that the model accurately simulates hydrological processes in the seven watersheds, with good agreement with observed data. Moreover, the rivers in five of the seven watersheds are found to be strongly dependent on groundwater discharge.
JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY-REGIONAL STUDIES
(2023)