Old sins have long shadows: climate change weakens efficiency of trophic coupling of phyto- and zooplankton in a deep oligo-mesotrophic lowland lake (Stechlin, Germany)a causality analysis

Analysis of a long-term (1994-2014) data set of phytoplankton and zooplankton in the deep, dimictic, oligo-mesotrophic Lake Stechlin (Germany) revealed trend-like changes: phytoplankton biomass and resource use efficiency increased with proliferation of heterocytic cyanobacteria (Dolichospermum spp. and Aphanizomenon flos-aquae), and those of especially large-sized zooplankton (Eudiaptomus, Eurytemora) decreased. These reverse trends are clear eutrophication symptoms and suggest a long-term trophic decoupling with potential decrease in energy transport towards higher tropic levels. Total phosphorusincreased significantly over time;however, there is no known external P load forLake Stechlin. Causality analysis enabled us to identifythe primary reason of the observed changes. According to the results, stronger and longer-lasting stratification (measured as relative water column stability) drove the observed changes and the gradualregime shift was initiated by an extreme weather eventboth indicating that climate change has been the crucial driver of the planktic community in this lake. Ourstudy also documents that there might be decadal delays between cause and consequences in aquatic food webs,supporting the essential importance of long-term monitoring efforts.