Article
Physics, Fluids & Plasmas
Rupali Sonone, Neelima Gupte
Summary: The study successfully identified reliable precursors of El Nino phenomena with an average lead time of 6.4 months using a climate network and surface air temperature data, and found indicators of tipping events in the data.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Jonathan D. Beverley, Matthew Collins, F. Hugo Lambert, Robin Chadwick
Summary: Research suggests that future changes to the positive-phase ENSO teleconnection to the North Pacific/North America sector will weaken, largely due to anomalous circulation changes over the North Pacific. The study also indicates that changes in forcing from equatorial central Pacific precipitation anomalies are more significant than changes in the global basic state background circulation.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Samantha Stevenson, Andrew T. Wittenberg, John Fasullo, Sloan Coats, Bette Otto-Bliesner
Summary: Most future projections in CMIP5 show more frequent exceedances of the rainfall threshold during El Nino in the eastern equatorial Pacific, but these frequencies vary widely across models, leading to uncertainty in future forecasts. The sensitivity of precipitation to local SST anomalies increases consistently across CMIP-class models, but changes to ENSO-related SST variability can greatly influence the results.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Jun Ying, Tao Lian, Ping Huang, Gang Huang, Dake Chen, Shangfeng Chen
Summary: The study suggests that surface net heat flux anomalies during extreme El Nino events generally do not impact the formation of SSTAs spatial pattern, while those during moderate El Nino events can influence the spatial pattern of SSTAs by producing more damping effects in certain regions. This highlights the importance of considering these atmospheric adjustments for a comprehensive understanding of El Nino diversity.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Soumi Chakravorty, Renellys C. Perez, Bruce T. Anderson, Sarah M. Larson, Benjamin S. Giese, Valentina Pivotti
Summary: The study suggests that both the heat flux-driven seasonal footprinting mechanism and the ocean dynamics-driven trade wind charging mechanism play crucial roles in connecting extratropical Pacific Ocean atmospheric variability with El Nino. When both mechanisms are active, a strong and persistent El Nino develops.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2021)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Colin Keating, Donghoon Lee, Juan Bazo, Paul Block
Summary: This study evaluates the ability of statistical and physically based season-ahead prediction models to trigger flood early preparedness actions effectively, aiming to reduce vulnerability to flood events and save lives and money. The statistical prediction model shows superior performance compared to the physically based model in correctly triggering preparedness actions for the Maranon River and Piura River in Peru. Efforts should focus on applying this season-ahead prediction framework to additional flood-prone locations where early actions may be warranted and current forecast capacity is limited.
NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Xian Wu, Yuko M. Okumura, Pedro N. DiNezio
Summary: The study demonstrates that the duration of El Nino events can be predicted based on their onset timing, with initial ocean conditions playing a crucial role in determining whether the event will terminate or persist. The ensemble spread in duration results from variations in surface wind over the western equatorial Pacific following the peak, which leads to different outcomes in September-initialized simulations compared to April-initialized simulations.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2021)
Review
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Peng Zhang, Zhiwei Wu
Summary: Based on the ENSO amplitude and the zonal gradient in sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA), El Nino events are classified into three types: strong El Nino, strong gradient weak El Nino, and weak gradient weak El Nino. Different types of El Nino have distinct impacts on the temperature anomalies over the North American continent.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Xinjia Hu, Jan Eichner, Eberhard Faust, Holger Kantz
Summary: Combining climate network analysis with El Nino prediction methods claim to predict El Nino events up to one year in advance, but the success of these methods needs further validation. A benchmarking method using surrogate data was proposed to quantitatively validate predictions for small data sets, indicating that at least one of the methods has predictive skill well above chance at lead times of about one year.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Benjamin Ng, Wenju Cai, Tim Cowan, Daohua Bi
Summary: This study highlights the significant impact of internal climate variability on the diversity of El Nino phenomenon, causing considerable uncertainty within the CMIP5 ensemble.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2021)
Article
Physics, Fluids & Plasmas
Ruby Saha, Neelima Gupte
Summary: We construct climate networks to identify distinct signatures of climatic phenomena and discuss the predictive power of these quantities.
Article
Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
Ivan J. J. Ramirez, Jieun Lee
Summary: This study examines the spatial effects of El Nin & SIM;o and vulnerability on cholera in Peru. The findings demonstrate strong temporal connections in 1997-98, most evident in northern Peru, whereas connections are less clear from 1991-93. Spatially, greater cholera risk is found in northern coastal Peru in 1997-98, compared to central and southern coastal Peru in 1991-92. The study supports the notion that the spatial nature of El Nino's impacts on cholera rates exacerbates cholera vulnerability, rather than triggers the epidemic's onset in 1991.
SPATIAL AND SPATIO-TEMPORAL EPIDEMIOLOGY
(2022)
Article
Computer Science, Interdisciplinary Applications
Si Wang, Lin Mu, Darong Liu
Summary: This study proposes a hybrid approach to predict the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) and El Nino events with a lead time of 12 months, which outperforms current methods. The results demonstrate successful forecasts for the El Nino years of 2009-2010, 2015-2016, and 2018-2019.
COMPUTERS & GEOSCIENCES
(2021)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Kilian Vos, Mitchell D. D. Harley, Ian L. L. Turner, Kristen D. D. Splinter
Summary: Analysis of satellite imagery covering over 8,300 km of sandy coastline reveals that the El Nino/Southern Oscillation drives coherent patterns of beach erosion and accretion around the Pacific Rim. Approximately one-third of all transects experience significant erosion during El Nino phases, while approximately one-quarter of all transects experience significant accretion during La Nina events.
Review
Biochemical Research Methods
Ronnie G. Gavilan, Junior Caro-Castro, Joaquin Trinanes
Summary: Global warming is causing significant changes in weather patterns, leading to more frequent and severe global events like the El Nino Southern Oscillation. This is contributing to the spread of climate-sensitive diseases such as diarrheal diseases. The use of remote sensing for environmental monitoring, combined with epidemiological surveillance data, is helping researchers study the dynamics of infectious diseases associated with El Nino, which can inform strategies for managing and preventing these diseases.
CURRENT OPINION IN BIOTECHNOLOGY
(2023)
Article
Biodiversity Conservation
Ivan J. Ramirez, Sue C. Grady
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Ivan J. Ramirez, Fernando Briones
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF DISASTER RISK SCIENCE
(2017)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Michael H. Glantz, Lino Naranjo, Marie-Ange Baudoin, Ivan J. Ramirez
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Lino Naranjo, Michael H. Glantz, Sayat Temirbekov, Ivan J. Ramirez
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF DISASTER RISK SCIENCE
(2018)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Michael H. Glantz, Ivan J. Ramirez
Review
Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
Sue C. Grady, Ivan J. Ramirez
Article
Environmental Sciences
Ivan J. Ramirez, Jieun Lee, Sue C. Grady
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH
(2018)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Ivan J. Ramirez, Jieun Lee
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH
(2020)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Michael H. Glantz, Ivan J. Ramirez
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF DISASTER RISK SCIENCE
(2020)
Article
Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
Ivan J. J. Ramirez, Jieun Lee
Summary: This study examines the spatial effects of El Nin & SIM;o and vulnerability on cholera in Peru. The findings demonstrate strong temporal connections in 1997-98, most evident in northern Peru, whereas connections are less clear from 1991-93. Spatially, greater cholera risk is found in northern coastal Peru in 1997-98, compared to central and southern coastal Peru in 1991-92. The study supports the notion that the spatial nature of El Nino's impacts on cholera rates exacerbates cholera vulnerability, rather than triggers the epidemic's onset in 1991.
SPATIAL AND SPATIO-TEMPORAL EPIDEMIOLOGY
(2022)
Article
Behavioral Sciences
Jieun Lee, Ivan J. Ramirez
Summary: The study revealed associations between COVID-19 rates and mental health, chronic conditions, and social determinants such as education, income, healthcare access, and race/ethnicity. Colorado has multiple high-risk areas for the pandemic, necessitating targeted interventions.
BEHAVIORAL MEDICINE
(2022)
Article
Clinical Neurology
Jonathan Daw Ern Lee, Emma Richards, Sadiq Mawji, Alessandro Paluzzi, Georgios Tsermoulas, Shahzada Ahmed
Summary: This case series explores the incidence and outcomes of internal carotid artery (ICA) injury during pituitary surgery, and introduces a viable repair option called "muscle wonton". The results show that ICA injuries during surgery resulted in few permanent complications, and left-sided injuries were more common.
BRITISH JOURNAL OF NEUROSURGERY
(2022)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Ivan J. Ramirez, Jieun Lee
Summary: Latin America has become the epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic, with Brazil, Peru, and Ecuador experiencing high incidence and death rates. These countries also face threats from multiple infectious diseases and El Nino-related hazards, with Peru being particularly sensitive to El Nino. The commentary emphasizes El Nino as a major factor that may worsen the incidence of COVID-19 and the broader health problem of ecosyndemic vulnerability in Latin America.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF DISASTER RISK SCIENCE
(2021)
Article
Geography
Ivan J. Ramirez