Accounting for non-stationarity in epidemiology by embedding time-varying parameters in stochastic models

Real-time forecasting of infectious disease dynamics with a stochastic semi-mechanistic model

(2018) Sebastian Funk et al.   Epidemics

Influenza interaction with cocirculating pathogens and its impact on surveillance, pathogenesis, and epidemic profile: A key role for mathematical modelling

(2018) Lulla Opatowski et al.   PLoS Pathogens

Model distinguishability and inference robustness in mechanisms of cholera transmission and loss of immunity

(2017) Elizabeth C. Lee et al.   JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY

Identifying climate drivers of infectious disease dynamics: recent advances and challenges ahead

(2017) C. Jessica E. Metcalf et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES

Opportunities and challenges in modeling emerging infectious diseases

(2017) C. Jessica E. Metcalf et al.   SCIENCE

Bayesian dynamic modeling of time series of dengue disease case counts

(2017) Daniel Adyro Martínez-Bello et al.   PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases

Behavioural change models for infectious disease transmission: a systematic review (2010–2015)

(2016) Frederik Verelst et al.   Journal of the Royal Society Interface

Use of serological surveys to generate key insights into the changing global landscape of infectious disease

(2016) C Jessica E Metcalf et al.   LANCET

Structure in the variability of the basic reproductive number (R0) for Zika epidemics in the Pacific islands

(2016) Clara Champagne et al.   eLife

Modeling infectious disease dynamics in the complex landscape of global health

(2015) H. Heesterbeek et al.   SCIENCE

Estimating the Attack Ratio of Dengue Epidemics under Time-varying Force of Infection using Aggregated Notification Data

(2015) Flavio Codeço Coelho et al.   Scientific Reports

Unraveling the Transmission Ecology of Polio

(2015) Micaela Martinez-Bakker et al.   PLOS BIOLOGY

Multiannual forecasting of seasonal influenza dynamics reveals climatic and evolutionary drivers

(2014) Jacob Bock Axelsen et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Measuring the path toward malaria elimination

(2014) T. S. Churcher et al.   SCIENCE

The Contribution of Social Behaviour to the Transmission of Influenza A in a Human Population

(2014) Adam J. Kucharski et al.   PLoS Pathogens

A New Framework and Software to Estimate Time-Varying Reproduction Numbers During Epidemics

(2013) Anne Cori et al.   AMERICAN JOURNAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGY

Capturing the time-varying drivers of an epidemic using stochastic dynamical systems

(2013) J. Dureau et al.   BIOSTATISTICS

Wavelet analysis in ecology and epidemiology: impact of statistical tests

(2013) B. Cazelles et al.   Journal of the Royal Society Interface

Modelling seasonal influenza: the role of weather and punctuated antigenic drift

(2013) R. Yaari et al.   Journal of the Royal Society Interface

Increased transmissibility explains the third wave of infection by the 2009 H1N1 pandemic virus in England

(2013) I. Dorigatti et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Approximate Bayesian Computation

(2013) Mikael Sunnåker et al.   PLoS Computational Biology

Can Human Movements Explain Heterogeneous Propagation of Dengue Fever in Cambodia?

(2012) Magali Teurlai et al.   PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases

Malaria in Northwest India: Data Analysis via Partially Observed Stochastic Differential Equation Models Driven by Lévy Noise

(2011) Anindya Bhadra et al.   JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION

On Identifiability of Nonlinear ODE Models and Applications in Viral Dynamics

(2011) Hongyu Miao et al.   SIAM REVIEW

Mechanistic modelling of the three waves of the 1918 influenza pandemic

(2011) DaiHai He et al.   Theoretical Ecology

Modelling the influence of human behaviour on the spread of infectious diseases: a review

(2010) Sebastian Funk et al.   Journal of the Royal Society Interface

Particle Markov chain Monte Carlo methods

(2010) Christophe Andrieu et al.   JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY SERIES B-STATISTICAL METHODOLOGY

Global Public Health Implications of a Mass Gathering in Mecca, Saudi Arabia During the Midst of an Influenza Pandemic

(2010) Kamran Khan et al.   JOURNAL OF TRAVEL MEDICINE

Rural-urban gradient in seasonal forcing of measles transmission in Niger

(2010) M. J. Ferrari et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES

Forcing Versus Feedback: Epidemic Malaria and Monsoon Rains in Northwest India

(2010) Karina Laneri et al.   PLoS Computational Biology

Time series analysis via mechanistic models

(2009) Carles Bretó et al.   Annals of Applied Statistics

The structural identifiability of susceptible–infective–recovered type epidemic models with incomplete immunity and birth targeted vaccination

(2009) J.D. Chapman et al.   Biomedical Signal Processing and Control

The ideal reporting interval for an epidemic to objectively interpret the epidemiological time course

(2009) H. Nishiura et al.   Journal of the Royal Society Interface

Closure of schools during an influenza pandemic

(2009) Simon Cauchemez et al.   LANCET INFECTIOUS DISEASES

Approximate Bayesian computation scheme for parameter inference and model selection in dynamical systems

(2008) T. Toni et al.   Journal of the Royal Society Interface

Inapparent infections and cholera dynamics

(2008) Aaron A. King et al.   NATURE

Global trends in emerging infectious diseases

(2008) Kate E. Jones et al.   NATURE

Wavelet analysis of ecological time series

(2008) Bernard Cazelles et al.   OECOLOGIA