期刊
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH
卷 7, 期 1, 页码 291-302出版社
MDPI
DOI: 10.3390/ijerph7010291
关键词
transmission; infectious diseases; basic reproduction number; epidemiology; statistical model; estimation techniques; HIV; AIDS
资金
- JST PRESTO program
The basic reproduction number, R-0, a summary measure of the transmission potential of an infectious disease, is estimated from early epidemic growth rate, but a likelihood- based method for the estimation has yet to be developed. The present study corrects the concept of the actual reproduction number, offering a simple framework for estimating R-0 without assuming exponential growth of cases. The proposed method is applied to the HIV epidemic in European countries, yielding R-0 values ranging from 3.60 to 3.74, consistent with those based on the Euler-Lotka equation. The method also permits calculating the expected value of R-0 using a spreadsheet.
作者
我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。
推荐
暂无数据