Prediction of genetic gains from selection in Arabica coffee progenies

Gains from selection for yield were estimated in Arabica coffee progenies carrying rust-resistance genes. The experiment in augmented block design was installed in Tres Pontas, state of Minas Gerais. Three blocks were established with six plants per plot, spaced 3.50 x 0.90 m, in 96 regular (F-2 progenies) and two control treatments. The plant response to rust was evaluated on a grade scale in 2008. Yield (bags per hectare) was estimated in the growing seasons 2005 to 2008. Significant differences between treatments for yield were observed in all harvests, except 2005. The presence of genetic variability among progenies allowed significant gain from selection for yield. Under the experimental conditions of this study, selection for yield can be performed in the first high-yield year, without major losses compared to genetic gain from selection for yield when based on the mean of four harvests.