Propagule size and structure, life history, and environmental conditions affect establishment success of an invasive species

Population dynamics of species that are recently introduced into a new area, e.g., invasive species and species of conservation concern that are translocated to support global populations, are likely to be dominated by short-term, transient effects. Wild pigs (Sus scrofa, or wild boar) are pulsed-resource consumers of mast nuts that are commonly introduced into new areas. We used vital rate data (i.e., survival and fecundity) for wild pigs in Germany under varying forage conditions to simulate transient population dynamics in the 10-years following introduction into a new environment. In a low forage environment (i.e., conditions similar to their native range), simulated wild pig populations maintained a stable population size with low probability of establishment, while in environments with better quality forage (i.e., conditions similar to parts of their invasive range), high juvenile fecundity and survival facilitated rapid population growth and establishment probability was high. We identified a strategy for simulating population dynamics of species whose reproduction and survival depend on environmental conditions that fluctuate and for predicting establishment success of species introduced into a new environment. Our approach can also be useful in projecting near-term transient population dynamics for many conservation and management applications.