Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
E. W. Kolstad, D. MacLeod, T. D. Demissie
Summary: The 'short rains’ in East Africa from October to December have significant year-to-year variability and are often associated with floods or droughts. The initial mode of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) influences subseasonal rainfall forecast errors, providing valuable insight for model improvement and forecast corrections.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Erik W. Kolstad, David MacLeod
Summary: The 'short rains' in East Africa during October-December exhibit significant interannual variability, with both drought and flooding being common. Statistical models based on sea surface temperature (SST) precursors are widely used for seasonal rainfall forecasts, and the study aims to understand the strengths and weaknesses of such models. A simple linear regression model is defined, showing that the August states of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) can predict about 40% of the short rains variability. The study also identifies the links between initial SSTs and forecast errors, as well as the presence of asymmetry and nonlinearity in the forecasts.
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Zhenghui Lu, Wenjie Dong, Bo Lu, Naiming Yuan, Zhuguo Ma, Mikhail Bogachev, Juergen Kurths
Summary: In this study, climate network analysis was used to investigate early warning signals for the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). An enhanced seesaw tendency in sea surface temperature and equatorial zonal wind was identified, and a network-based predictor was proposed that outperforms current dynamic models.
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Jenna Pearson, Laure Resplandy, Mathieu Poupon
Summary: Coastal hypoxia, harmful low levels of oxygen, is a growing problem that poses a threat to coastal ecosystems and economies. This study examines the natural factors that contribute to the risk of coastal hypoxia in the northern Indian Ocean, taking into consideration human-induced impacts, naturally occurring oxygen minimum zones, and seasonal monsoons and interannual Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) variability. The findings highlight the role of wind-driven upwelling and biological feedbacks in controlling hypoxia on both seasonal and interannual timescales. Understanding the risk of hypoxia is crucial for effective monitoring, forecasting, and mitigation efforts.
GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLES
(2022)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
K. McMonigal, Sarah M. Larson
Summary: Indian Ocean meridional heat transport (MHTIO) has significant impacts on climate and ecosystem. This study finds that internally generated Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) does not drive variability in MHTIO, but internal atmospheric variability does. There is little evidence for decadal or multidecadal variability in MHTIO, suggesting it may be a region where anthropogenic trend rises above internal variability sooner.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Ge Song, Rongcai Ren
Summary: This study evaluates the reproducibility of historical simulations in the CMIP6 for Sub-IOD and IOD, and their association with ENSO. Most CMIP6 models can reproduce the east-west dipole oscillation mode of heat content anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean, but they overestimate the amplitude and period of the Sub-IOD. The vertical coupling between Sub-IOD and IOD is stronger in CMIP6 models compared to observations, leading to a tighter association with ENSO. Nonetheless, the linkage between a westward-centered CP-ENSO and the Sub-IOD occurring in winter-spring is well reproduced.
ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
(2023)
Article
Oceanography
Xunshu Song, Youmin Tang, Ting Liu, Xiaojing Li
Summary: In this study, a long-term ensemble hindcast was performed using the Community Earth System Model (CESM) from 1880 to 2017, and a comprehensive investigation of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) predictability was conducted. The study found that the CESM can produce IOD prediction skill comparable to state-of-the-art models, and the potential predictability of IOD is much higher than the actual prediction skill. The strength of IOD events plays an important role in the prediction skill.
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Mengke Zhang, Dachao Jin, Xudong Wang, Lin Chen, Jingjia Luo, Ziqian Wang
Summary: Based on the study of two anomaly patterns in the Indian Ocean, IOBM and IOD, it is found that they are connected and not influenced by the previous year's winter ENSO, showing phase-locking with the seasonal cycle.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
(2022)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Yuki Higuchi, Tomoki Tozuka
Summary: A new framework of complex networks based on event synchronization is developed to reveal the propagation characteristics of temperature anomalies associated with climate variation phenomena. The study finds that there is an asymmetry in sea surface temperature anomalies between the positive and negative phases of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), with anomalies in the eastern pole being preceded by those in the eastern equatorial region and from the south. Furthermore, the positive IOD tends to experience extreme subsurface temperature anomalies over larger areas before extreme sea surface temperature anomalies compared to the negative IOD.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
S. Chaturvedi, S. Dwivedi
Summary: This study investigates the impact of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events on malaria transmission intensity in India. The results show that La Nina years pose a greater threat of malaria, particularly in densely populated Indian states. During El Nino years, malaria transmission intensity greatly reduces in most parts of India, except for specific regions. Positive IOD years lead to an increase in malaria transmission intensity over central India and coastal regions, while negative IOD years show the opposite effect. The study highlights the significant implications of ENSO and IOD on malaria intensity and distribution in a warming world, especially for densely populated Indian states.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Ying Zhang, Yan Du
Summary: The tropical Indian Ocean basin experienced warming in 2020 due to an extreme positive Indian Ocean Dipole event, rather than an El Nino event. The study highlights the role of the extreme IOD event in triggering the warming pattern in the TIO basin, which was influenced by factors such as thermocline-SST feedback and wind anomalies. Additionally, equatorially antisymmetric SST, precipitation, and surface wind patterns also played a role in the warming process.
GEOSCIENCE LETTERS
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Md Wahiduzzaman, Kevin Cheung, Jing-Jia Luo, Prasad Kumar Bhaskaran, Shaolei Tang, Chaoxia Yuan
Summary: This study examined the predictive skill of a statistical Generalised Additive Model (GAM) by considering the impact of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The results show that IOD is a good predictor for tropical cyclone activity and landfall probability. The GAM approach has a potential skill of approximately 72% in matching predicted landfall with observations.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Prasanta Kumar Bal, Hari Prasad Dasari, Narayan Prasad, Popat Salunke, Ruchi Singh Parihar
Summary: This study examines the variations of energy fluxes in the Indian monsoon region with ENSO, IOD, and Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) from 1979 to 2013. The research shows that the precipitation in El Niño and La Niña years is inversely related to radiative and sensible heat fluxes. Furthermore, during the positive IOD phase, enhanced convective activity and precipitation over certain areas are accompanied by increased shortwave and longwave radiative fluxes, while the conditions are largely opposite during the negative IOD phases.
ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH
(2021)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
K. S. Athira, M. K. Roxy, Panini Dasgupta, J. S. Saranya, Vineet Kumar Singh, Raju Attada
Summary: The variability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall has significant impacts on food and water security in India. The relationship between El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian summer monsoon rainfall shows regional variability and has strengthened and then weakened over the past decades. Warm SST anomalies in the eastern Pacific Ocean correspond to decreased rainfall, while warm SST anomalies in the Indian Ocean correspond to increased rainfall in the south and decreased rainfall in the north of India. The central Indian region experiences the most substantial variation in the ENSO-ISMR relationship.
SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
C. K. Sajidh, Abhisek Chatterjee
Summary: This study evaluates climate model simulations from CMIP6 for their representation of the historical mean states, variability, and future projections for the Indian Ocean. It finds that most models reproduce the observed mean state of the dynamic sea level realistically but show consistent positive bias across the latitudinal range of the Indian Ocean. The study also highlights the presence of spurious variability in the eastern part of the basin and the weaker summer monsoon winds in the north Indian Ocean in the models.
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Benjamin M. Althouse, Stefan Flasche, Michiko Toizumi, Hien-Anh Thi Nguyen, Hien Minh Vo, Minh Nhat Le, Masahiro Hashizume, Koya Ariyoshi, Dang Duc Anh, Gail L. Rodgers, Keith P. Klugman, Hao Hu, Lay-Myint Yoshida
Summary: The study found that there was little difference in severity between single, dual, or triple infections, as well as between specific viruses. RSV and HMPV infections were associated with a 2-fold and 1.5-fold increase in odds of being severe, respectively, while ADV infection consistently had a lower risk of severity. Therefore, PCR testing for RSV or HMPV viruses is recommended in clinical settings to assess whether a patient's disease course will be severe.
SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
(2021)
Article
Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
Hiroko Taniguchi, Md Mizanur Rahman, Khin Thet Swe, Ashraf Hussain, Kenji Shibuya, Masahiro Hashizume
Summary: The study shows that Iraq has made progress in improving water sources, sanitation facilities, institutional delivery, skilled birth attendants, and BCG vaccination by 80% by 2018, with projections showing maintenance of these targets at the national and subnational levels by 2030. However, deficiencies still exist in family planning satisfaction, pneumonia treatment, and oral rehydration therapy.
SOCIAL SCIENCE & MEDICINE
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
A. M. Vicedo-Cabrera, N. Scovronick, F. Sera, D. Roye, R. Schneider, A. Tobias, C. Astrom, Y. Guo, Y. Honda, D. M. Hondula, R. Abrutzky, S. Tong, M. de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, P. H. Nascimento Saldiva, E. Lavigne, P. Matus Correa, N. Valdes Ortega, H. Kan, S. Osorio, J. Kysely, A. Urban, H. Orru, E. Indermitte, J. J. K. Jaakkola, N. Ryti, M. Pascal, A. Schneider, K. Katsouyanni, E. Samoli, F. Mayvaneh, A. Entezari, P. Goodman, A. Zeka, P. Michelozzi, F. de'Donato, M. Hashizume, B. Alahmad, M. Hurtado Diaz, C. De La Cruz Valencia, A. Overcenco, D. Houthuijs, C. Ameling, S. Rao, F. Di Ruscio, G. Carrasco-Escobar, X. Seposo, S. Silva, J. Madureira, I. H. Holobaca, S. Fratianni, F. Acquaotta, H. Kim, W. Lee, C. Iniguez, B. Forsberg, M. S. Ragettli, Y. L. L. Guo, B. Y. Chen, S. Li, B. Armstrong, A. Aleman, A. Zanobetti, J. Schwartz, T. N. Dang, D. V. Dung, N. Gillett, A. Haines, M. Mengel, V. Huber, A. Gasparrini
Summary: Current and future climate change is projected to have significant impacts on human health through increasing temperatures. A study found that approximately 37% of warm-season heat-related deaths can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change. Urgent mitigation and adaptation strategies are needed to minimize the public health impacts of climate change.
NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
(2021)
Article
Infectious Diseases
Trang Thi Thuy Huynh, Noboru Minakawa
Summary: This study characterized mosquito habitats and estimated vector densities in major urban parks in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam and compared them with those in adjacent residential areas. The study found that the prevalence of Aedes larvae habitats was significantly higher in urban parks than in residential areas. Aedes albopictus larvae were associated with discarded containers and planters, and negatively associated with indoor habitats but positively associated with vegetation shade. The density of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes was significantly lower in parks compared to residential areas, while the density of Aedes albopictus was significantly higher in parks. The study highlights the importance of considering urban parks in vector control programs.
PLOS NEGLECTED TROPICAL DISEASES
(2022)
Article
Entomology
Charlotte G. Rhodes, Jose R. Loaiza, Luis Mario Romero, Jose Manuel Gutierrez Alvarado, Gabriela Delgado, Obdulio Rojas Salas, Melissa Ramirez Rojas, Carlos Aguilar-Avendano, Ezequias Maynes, Jose A. Valerin Cordero, Alonso Soto Mora, Chystrie A. Rigg, Aryana Zardkoohi, Monica Prado, Mariel D. Friberg, Luke R. Bergmann, Rodrigo Marin Rodriguez, Gabriel L. Hamer, Luis Fernando Chaves
Summary: Costa Rica is close to eliminating malaria, but sporadic outbreaks still occur. The appropriateness of control measures targeting the dominant vector species, Anopheles albimanus, is uncertain. This study used a species distribution model to assess the potential exposure to An. albimanus in palm and pineapple plantations, and to evaluate its presence in transmission foci. The results showed that both oil palm and pineapple plantations are likely to harbor An. albimanus, while environments at the epicenter of malaria transmission had low suitability for this mosquito species. The study highlights the potential use of species distribution models for planning vector control activities.
Article
Entomology
Francisco Serrano-Peraza, Leopoldo Serrano Cervantes, Luis Fernando Chaves
Summary: Bess beetle species segregate by altitude in Montecristo National Park, El Salvador. The cloud forest has the highest species richness, followed by the dry forest and mixed pine forest. Most species are randomly associated with different tree species trunks.
ENVIRONMENTAL ENTOMOLOGY
(2022)
Article
Parasitology
Noboru Minakawa, Hitoshi Kawada, James O. Kongere, George O. Sonye, Peter A. Lutiali, Beatrice Awuor, Rie Isozumi, Kyoko Futami
Summary: A study conducted in Kenya suggests that insecticide-treated ceiling nets provide additional protection against malaria compared to traditional bed nets.
Article
Economics
Luis Fernando Chaves, Mariel D. Friberg, Lisbeth A. Hurtado, Rodrigo Marin Rodriguez, David O'Sullivan, Luke R. Bergmann
Summary: This study examines the factors influencing the spread of COVID-19 in Mesoamerica and the Caribbean, and finds that uneven development, trade openness, and international city connections have an impact on the number of cases and deaths. Countries with higher trade dependence and uneven development have more severe outbreaks. These results highlight the importance of economic integration in the transmission of the virus.
SOCIO-ECONOMIC PLANNING SCIENCES
(2022)
Article
Ecology
Vanessa J. Pineda, Kadir A. Gonzalez, Milixa Perea, Chystrie Rigg, Jose E. Calzada, Luis F. Chaves, Vanessa Vasquez, Franklyn Samudio, Nicole Gottdenker, Azael Saldana
Summary: Didelphis marsupialis, a competent reservoir for trypanosomatid parasites, showed high rates of T. cruzi infection in Chagas disease endemic regions of Panama. The study provided important information for improved surveillance and management of Chagas disease in the area.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL FOR PARASITOLOGY-PARASITES AND WILDLIFE
(2022)
Article
Engineering, Mechanical
Kenichi W. Okamoto, Virakbott Ong, Robert Wallace, Rodrick Wallace, Luis Fernando Chaves
Summary: To control infectious diseases, such as SARS-CoV-2, surveillance, isolation, contact-tracing, and quarantining are necessary. However, actively removing symptomatic individuals may unintentionally select for strains less likely to cause symptoms. Additionally, the selection pressures on pathogens caused by isolation and quarantine can be influenced by uneven surveillance efforts and distinct transmission risks across host classes.
NONLINEAR DYNAMICS
(2023)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
John E. E. Vinson, Nicole L. L. Gottdenker, Luis Fernando Chaves, RajReni B. B. Kaul, Andrew M. M. Kramer, John M. M. Drake, Richard J. J. Hall
Summary: Deforestation alters wildlife communities and increases zoonotic spillover potential. The species composition differences between primary and regenerating forests can influence the trajectory of spillover risk. Factors such as forest regeneration rate and the relative spillover risk of regenerating forests determine landscape-level spillover risk.
ROYAL SOCIETY OPEN SCIENCE
(2022)
Article
Entomology
Joseph R. McMillan, Luis Fernando Chaves, Philip M. Armstrong
Summary: Quantifying synchrony in mosquito populations up to 10 km and arbovirus populations up to 5 km can inform mosquito control operations and the risk of spillover into human populations. Species identity plays a significant role in determining the size of treatment zones needed for mosquito control. Focal-level processes drive the transmission dynamics of vector-borne pathogens.
JOURNAL OF MEDICAL ENTOMOLOGY
(2023)
Article
Entomology
Charlotte G. Rhodes, Luis F. Chaves, Luke R. Bergmann, Gabriel L. Hamer
Summary: West Nile virus (WNV) is a major mosquito-borne disease in the United States, and its distribution and vectors are crucial to understand. In this study, we used ensemble distribution modeling to estimate the habitat suitability for Culex tarsalis Coquillett, a primary WNV vector, across the contiguous United States. We found that the central plains region and much of the western US have high habitat suitability. Additionally, we identified important temperature and precipitation metrics in predicting the occurrence of Cx. tarsalis.
JOURNAL OF MEDICAL ENTOMOLOGY
(2023)
Article
Computer Science, Information Systems
Luke Bergmann, Luis Fernando Chaves, David O'Sullivan, Robert G. Wallace
Summary: The spread of COVID-19 in agricultural regions varies geographically. Possible explanations include differences in occupational risks, access to healthcare, racial inequalities, and approaches to public health. In this study, the impacts of different modes of agricultural production across counties in the Midwest United States on COVID-19 spread were explored. Using spatial statistical methods, the researchers developed a novel approach to visualize the results and identified distinct regional patterns in epidemiological processes. The findings show that counties with more engagement in regenerative agricultural production have lower COVID-19 rates compared to those dominated by conventional agricultural production, even after considering other factors.
ISPRS INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF GEO-INFORMATION
(2023)
Article
Environmental Studies
Luke Bergmann, Luis Fernando Chaves, Carolyn R. Betz, Serena Stein, Brian Wiedenfeld, Ann Wolf, Robert G. Wallace
Summary: This study classifies agricultural lands in the Midwest of the United States into regenerative, conventional, or hybrid categories, using an index and clustering method. The results reveal a diverse landscape of agricultural lands within and between states, providing valuable spatial information for peer-to-peer exchanges among farmers, agricultural extension, civil society, and policy formation.
