Article
Engineering, Mechanical
Haitao Song, Zhongwei Jia, Zhen Jin, Shengqiang Liu
Summary: Since the first level response to public health emergencies was launched on January 25, 2020 in Heilongjiang province, China, the outbreak of COVID-19 appeared to be controlled. However, in April 2020, a new outbreak caused by imported cases occurred in Harbin. A mathematical model was used to investigate the transmission of the virus in Harbin, with the outbreak size estimated to be 174 cases. The effective reproduction number dropped significantly after effective interventions by the Heilongjiang province government, reaching below 0.04 and bringing the outbreak under control.
NONLINEAR DYNAMICS
(2021)
Article
Mathematics
Rana Yousif, Aref Jeribi, Saad Al-Azzawi
Summary: Since the identification of new mutations in the coronavirus, the number of COVID-19 cases worldwide has increased, leading to a new wave of the pandemic. This study used a fractional-order SEIRD model with a Caputo derivative to investigate the spread of COVID-19. The analysis included the characteristics of the system, such as solution boundedness, existence, uniqueness, non-negativity, equilibrium points, and basic reproduction number. The simulation results showed that the current wave of virus spread will continue for the next few months, with an increasing number of infections. The comparison of different fractional-order derivatives indicated that the Caputo derivative better aligned with real data. Moreover, the obtained reproduction number suggested the need for further control measures.
Article
Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
Bimandra A. Djaafara, Natsuko Imai, Esther Hamblion, Benido Impouma, Christl A. Donnelly, Anne Cori
Summary: Accurate estimation of the confidence level for the end of an outbreak is crucial for controlling infectious disease outbreaks. A study found that the current criteria for declaring the end of Ebola virus disease outbreaks may be too sensitive and short, suggesting a preliminary declaration after 63 days from the symptom onset of the last detected case followed by 90 days of enhanced surveillance.
AMERICAN JOURNAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGY
(2021)
Article
Virology
Abhishek Mallela, Jacob Neumann, Ely F. Miller, Ye Chen, Richard G. Posner, Yen Ting Lin, William S. Hlavacek
Summary: Although many individuals in the US have acquired immunity against COVID-19, the ongoing transmission of the disease poses a threat to those who are not immune. By calculating the population-specific basic reproduction number R0, which represents the expected number of secondary cases generated by an infected person in the absence of interventions, we can estimate when sustained disease transmission will end. Our state-level R0 estimates obtained using Bayesian inference show significant variations in disease transmission across states, making it more challenging to achieve herd immunity in certain states. Based on adjusted herd immunity thresholds, vaccination data, and seroprevalence survey data, no state had achieved herd immunity as of September 20, 2021.
Article
Fisheries
Jiaji Pan, Wei Qin, Zhongxiang Chen, Jun Xiao, Haiyan Chang, Ke He, Hao Feng
Summary: This study investigated the transmission mechanism of the spring viremia of carp virus (SVCV) among freshwater fish populations by introducing infected zebrafish. A SEIR compartment mathematical model was established to quantitatively characterize the propagation of SVCV. It was found that lower temperatures and reduced culturing density could effectively slow down the transmission of the virus, providing effective containment strategies and optimizing culturing conditions.
Article
Biochemistry & Molecular Biology
Eike Steinig, Sebastian Duchene, Izzard Aglua, Andrew Greenhill, Rebecca Ford, Mition Yoannes, Jan Jaworski, Jimmy Drekore, Bohu Urakoko, Harry Poka, Clive Wurr, Eri Ebos, David Nangen, Laurens Manning, Moses Laman, Cadhla Firth, Simon Smith, William Pomat, Steven Y. C. Tong, Lachlan Coin, Emma McBryde, Paul Horwood
Summary: This study utilized nanopore sequencing and phylodynamic modeling to reconstruct the transmission dynamics of MRSA outbreaks in Far North Queensland and Papua New Guinea. The findings suggest that nanopore technology can be a cost-effective solution for bacterial outbreak reconstruction in communities without access to sequencing infrastructure, providing opportunities for infection control.
MOLECULAR BIOLOGY AND EVOLUTION
(2022)
Article
Mathematics, Applied
Haitao Song, Fang Liu, Feng Li, Xiaochun Cao, Hao Wang, Zhongwei Jia, Huaiping Zhu, Michael Y. Li, Wei Lin, Hong Yang, Jianghong Hu, Zhen Jin
Summary: The first case of COVID-19 was reported in Wuhan, China in December 2019. Since then, it has spread to all provinces in China and over 150 countries worldwide. Through mathematical modeling, it has been shown that isolation and contact tracing measures have effectively helped control the spread of the virus and reduce the occurrence of a second epidemic.
DISCRETE AND CONTINUOUS DYNAMICAL SYSTEMS-SERIES B
(2022)
Article
Computer Science, Information Systems
Duc Tran Le, Khanh Quoc Dang, Quyen Le Thi Nguyen, Soha Alhelaly, Ammar Muthanna
Summary: In this paper, a mathematical model called SEIR-S is proposed for malware spreading in Vehicular Ad-hoc Network (VANET), with evaluation of the basic reproduction number and stability analysis. Results show that the spreading can gradually decrease or cannot be extinguished, with suggested conditions for controlling the endemic in the VANET network.
Article
Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
Virginia E. Pitzer, Melanie Chitwood, Joshua Havumaki, Nicolas A. Menzies, Stephanie Perniciaro, Joshua L. Warren, Daniel M. Weinberger, Ted Cohen
Summary: This study investigated the impact of diagnostic testing and reporting changes on estimates of the reproductive number of COVID-19, finding that changes in testing practices and reporting delays can result in biased estimates. Monitoring changes in testing practices and considering diagnostic testing and reporting processes are necessary for interpreting estimates of COVID-19's reproductive number.
AMERICAN JOURNAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGY
(2021)
Article
Mathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications
A. Babaei, M. Ahmadi, H. Jafari, A. Liya
Summary: This study presents a mathematical model for the spread of the novel coronavirus, aiming to investigate the impact of quarantine on decreasing the prevalence rate of the virus. The unique solvability of the COVID-19 model is confirmed, and equilibrium points as well as reproduction numbers are discussed with and without the consideration of quarantine factor. Numerical simulations using the Adams-Bashforth-Moulton predictor-corrector method are conducted to observe the behavior of the model.
CHAOS SOLITONS & FRACTALS
(2021)
Article
Biology
Andrew F. Brouwer
Summary: The article explains the importance of the basic reproduction number in mathematical epidemiology and infectious disease modeling, as well as how to calculate and interpret it. By connecting the discrete next generation process and using linear algebra, a geometric explanation is provided for why the basic reproduction number is an epidemic threshold.
BULLETIN OF MATHEMATICAL BIOLOGY
(2022)
Article
Biology
Michael Chapwanya, Jean Lubuma, Yibeltal Terefe, Berge Tsanou
Summary: This article proposes a deterministic model to investigate the impact of conflicts and war on the transmission dynamics of Ebola virus disease. The model considers both direct and indirect transmission, as well as patient escape from healthcare facilities. By fitting and parameterizing the model using cumulative mortality data, the basic reproduction number is computed and shown to have a complex expression. Numerical experiments and theoretical analysis are presented, and recommendations for tackling Ebola in conflict zones are provided.
BULLETIN OF MATHEMATICAL BIOLOGY
(2022)
Article
Mathematics, Applied
Wenhao Dai, Hailiang Zhang
Summary: This paper investigates the diffusion of eating disorders by constructing a mathematical model that considers re-susceptibility and the role of education. The uniqueness of the positive solution for this model is proven using semigroup theory, and the stability of the disease-free equilibrium state is examined. Numerical simulations reveal the impact of education and medical resources on the distribution of eating disorders.
JOURNAL OF APPLIED MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING
(2023)
Article
Engineering, Multidisciplinary
Mitul Luhar, Assad A. Oberai, Athanassios S. Fokas, Yannis C. Yortsos
Summary: A study develops models to capture the phenomena of super-spreader events and algebraic decay during infectious disease outbreaks. By combining the traditional SIR model with the Wells-Riley model for airborne disease transmission, quantitative estimates for the basic reproduction number during super-spreader events are generated. The research also demonstrates that the tendency to relax precautions as the infected fraction decreases naturally leads to algebraic decay.
COMPUTER METHODS IN APPLIED MECHANICS AND ENGINEERING
(2022)
Article
Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
Katsuma Hayashi, Marie Fujimoto, Hiroshi Nishiura
Summary: This study quantitatively assessed the future risk of dengue in Japan using climate change scenarios and found that the risk of transmission may extend to late spring and autumn due to increasing temperatures. The study emphasizes the importance of developing adaptation policies to prevent dengue transmission, such as eliminating mosquito breeding sites and distributing insecticides.
FRONTIERS IN PUBLIC HEALTH
(2022)
Article
Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
Paul A. Gastanaduy, Sebastian Funk, Prabasaj Paul, Lilith Tatham, Nicholas Fisher, Jeremy Budd, Brian Fowler, Sietske de Fijter, Mary DiOrio, Gregory S. Wallace, Bryan Grenfell
AMERICAN JOURNAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGY
(2018)
Editorial Material
Microbiology
Peter H. Gilligan, Damian G. Downey, J. Stuart Elborn, Patrick A. Flume, Sebastian Funk, Deirdre Gilpin, Timothy J. Kidd, John McCaughan, B. Cherie Millar, Philip G. Murphy, Jacqueline C. Rendall, Michael M. Tunney, John E. Moore
JOURNAL OF CLINICAL MICROBIOLOGY
(2018)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Gwenan M. Knight, Mirko Zimic, Sebastian Funk, Robert H. Gilman, Jon S. Friedland, Louis Grandjean
JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY INTERFACE
(2018)
Article
Infectious Diseases
Cecile Viboud, Kaiyuan Sun, Robert Gaffey, Marco Ajelli, Laura Fumanelli, Stefano Merler, Qian Zhang, Gerardo Chowell, Lone Simonsen, Alessandro Vespignani
Article
Infectious Diseases
Francesco Checchi, Sebastian Funk, Daniel Chandramohan, Francois Chappuis, Daniel T. Haydon
PLOS NEGLECTED TROPICAL DISEASES
(2018)
Article
Medicine, General & Internal
Kathleen M. O'Reilly, Rachel Lowe, W. John Edmunds, Philippe Mayaud, Adam Kucharski, Rosalind M. Eggo, Sebastian Funk, Deepit Bhatia, Kamran Khan, Moritz U. G. Kraemer, Annelies Wilder-Smith, Laura C. Rodrigues, Patricia Brasil, Eduardo Massad, Thomas Jaenisch, Simon Cauchemez, Oliver J. Brady, Laith Yakob
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
N. R. Faria, M. U. G. Kraemer, S. C. Hill, J. Goes de Jesus, R. S. Aguiar, F. C. M. Iani, J. Xavier, J. Quick, L. du Plessis, S. Dellicour, J. Theze, R. D. O. Carvalho, G. Baele, C. -H. Wu, P. P. Silveira, M. B. Arruda, M. A. Pereira, G. C. Pereira, J. Lourenco, U. Obolski, L. Abade, T. I. Vasylyeva, M. Giovanetti, D. Yi, D. J. Weiss, G. R. W. Wint, F. M. Shearer, S. Funk, B. Nikolay, V. Fonseca, T. E. R. Adelino, M. A. A. Oliveira, M. V. F. Silva, L. Sacchetto, P. O. Figueiredo, I. M. Rezende, E. M. Mello, R. F. C. Said, D. A. Santos, M. L. Ferraz, M. G. Brito, L. F. Santana, M. T. Menezes, R. M. Brindeiro, A. Tanuri, F. C. P. dos Santos, M. S. Cunha, J. S. Nogueira, I. M. Rocco, A. C. da Costa, S. C. V. Komninakis, V. Azevedo, A. O. Chieppe, E. S. M. Araujo, M. C. L. Mendonca, C. C. dos Santos, C. D. dos Santos, A. M. Mares-Guia, R. M. R. Nogueira, P. C. Sequeira, R. G. Abreu, M. H. O. Garcia, A. L. Abreu, O. Okumoto, E. G. Kroon, C. F. C. de Albuquerque, K. Lewandowski, S. T. Pullan, M. Carroll, T. de Oliveira, E. C. Sabino, R. P. Souza, M. A. Suchard, P. Lemey, G. S. Trindade, B. P. Drumond, A. M. B. Filippis, N. J. Loman, S. Cauchemez, L. C. J. Alcantara, O. G. Pybus
Article
Biology
Adam J. Kucharski, Mike Kama, Conall H. Watson, Maite Aubry, Sebastian Funk, Alasdair D. Henderson, Oliver J. Brady, Jessica Vanhomwegen, Jean-Claude Manuguerra, Colleen L. Lau, W. John Edmunds, John Aaskov, Eric James Nilles, Van-Mai Cao-Lormeau, Stephane Hue, Martin L. Hibberd
Review
Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
M. U. G. Kraemer, D. A. T. Cummings, S. Funk, R. C. Reiner, N. R. Faria, O. G. Pybus, S. Cauchemez
EPIDEMIOLOGY AND INFECTION
(2019)
Article
Biochemical Research Methods
Sebastian Funk, Anton Camacho, Adam J. Kucharski, Rachel Lowe, Rosalind M. Eggo, W. John Edmunds
PLOS COMPUTATIONAL BIOLOGY
(2019)
Review
Biology
Jonathan A. Polonsky, Amrish Baidjoe, Zhian N. Kamvar, Anne Cori, Kara Durski, W. John Edmunds, Rosalind M. Eggo, Sebastian Funk, Laurent Kaiser, Patrick Keating, Olivier le Polain de Waroux, Michael Marks, Paula Moraga, Oliver Morgan, Pierre Nouvellet, Ruwan Ratnayake, Chrissy H. Roberts, Jimmy Whitworth, Thibaut Jombart
PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES
(2019)
Article
Medicine, General & Internal
Sebastian Funk, Jennifer K. Knapp, Emmaculate Lebo, Susan E. Reef, Alya J. Dabbagh, Katrina Kretsinger, Mark Jit, W. John Edmunds, Peter M. Strebel
Article
Immunology
June Young Chun, Wan Beom Park, Nam Joong Kim, Eun Hwa Choi, Sebastian Funk, Myoung-don Oh
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Raphaelle Metras, W. John Edmunds, Chouanibou Youssouffi, Laure Dommergues, Guillaume Fournie, Anton Camacho, Sebastian Funk, Eric Cardinale, Gilles Le Godais, Soihibou Combo, Laurent Filleul, Hassani Youssouf, Marion Subiros
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
(2020)