期刊
EPIDEMICS
卷 3, 期 3-4, 页码 143-151出版社
ELSEVIER
DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2011.04.001
关键词
Mathematical model; Transmission; Infectious disease; Mixing; Varicella; B19; Parvovirus; Contact data
资金
- European Commission [SSP22-CT-2004-502084, POLYMOD SP22-CT-2004-502085]
- ECDC [2009/002]
- Research and Development Directorate of the United Kingdom Department of Health [1216520]
Knowledge of the determinants of infectious disease transmission is a public health priority as it allows the design of optimal control strategies for endemic or emerging infections. We analyse a detailed dataset on contact patterns across five European countries and use available serological profiles for varicella and parvovirus B19 infections to identify the types of contact that may be most relevant for transmission. We show that models informed by contact data fit well the observed serological profiles of both infections. We find that intimate types of contacts explain the pattern of acquisition of serological markers by age better than other types of social contacts. We observe similar patterns in each of the countries analysed, suggesting that there are consistent biological mechanisms at work. (C) 2011 Elsevier B. V. All rights reserved.
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