4.2 Article

How backyard poultry flocks influence the effort required to curtail avian influenza epidemics in commercial poultry flocks

期刊

EPIDEMICS
卷 3, 期 2, 页码 71-75

出版社

ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2011.01.003

关键词

Avian influenza; Model; Backyard flocks

资金

  1. National Institute of General Medical Sciences [5U01GM-076426]
  2. University of Pennsylvania [07-9208-0175-CA]
  3. Center for Epidemiology and Animal Health, USDA, APHIS, VS, Fort Collins, Colorado [07-9208-0175-CA]

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This paper summarizes the evidence that the contribution of backyard poultry flocks to the on-going transmission dynamics of an avian influenza epidemic in commercial flocks is modest at best. Nevertheless, while disease control strategies need not involve the backyard flocks, an analysis of the contribution of each element of the next generation matrix to the basic reproduction number indicates that models which ignores the contribution of backyard flocks in estimating the effort required of strategies focused one host type (e. g. commercial flocks only) necessarily underestimate the level of effort to an extent that may matter to policy makers. (C) 2011 Elsevier B. V. All rights reserved.

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