期刊
JNCI-JOURNAL OF THE NATIONAL CANCER INSTITUTE
卷 107, 期 8, 页码 -出版社
OXFORD UNIV PRESS INC
DOI: 10.1093/jnci/djv157
关键词
-
类别
资金
- [R01 CA152089]
- [R01 GM54438]
- [R01 CA174779]
- [R01 HL072966]
- [UL1TR000423]
Developing biomarkers that can predict whether patients are likely to benefit from an intervention is a pressing objective in many areas of medicine. Recent guidance documents have recommended that the accuracy of predictive biomarkers, ie, sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values, should be assessed. We clarify the meanings of these entities for predictive markers and demonstrate that generally they cannot be estimated from data without making strong untestable assumptions. Language suggesting that predictive biomarkers can identify patients who benefit from an intervention is also widespread. We show that in general one cannot estimate the chance that a patient will benefit from treatment. We recommend instead that predictive biomarkers be evaluated with respect to their ability to predict clinical outcomes among patients treated and among patients receiving standard of care, and the population impact of treatment rules based on those predictions. Ideally these entities are estimated from a randomized trial comparing the experimental intervention with standard of care.
作者
我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。
推荐
暂无数据