Simulating harvesting scenarios towards the sustainable use of mangrove forest plantations

Mangrove forests appear among the most productive ecosystems on earth and provide important goods and services to tropical coastal populations. Thirty-five percent of mangrove forest areas have been lost worldwide in the last two decades. Management measures could be an option to combine human use and conservation of mangroves. These measures can be improved if their impacts are assessed before they are performed. By doing so, the best management option out of a set of all potential options can be selected in advance. The mangrove model-KiWi-has been proven to be suitable for analyzing mangrove forest dynamics in the neotropics. Here, the model was applied to mangrove management scenarios. For this, the model was parameterized to Rhizophora apiculata, one of the most common mangrove species planted in Asia for timber production. It is thus the first simulation model describing Asian mangrove plantations. The recently developed Pattern Oriented Modelling approach was used to find those parameters fitting best density patterns and dbh (diameter at breast height) size classes reported in literature. The results demonstrated that the KiWi model was able to: (1) reproduce the growth patterns of a mono-specific plantation of R. apiculata in terms of forest density and size class distribution and (2) can provide criteria for the selection of a thinning strategy within a harvesting cycle.