Article
Environmental Sciences
Zhaokai Dong, Daniel J. Bain, Murat Akcakaya, Carla A. Ng
Summary: In this study, an alternative approach using Thiessen polygons around sewer nodes to construct a sewer shed model was proposed, and the pipe flow in a sewer shed in the City of Pittsburgh was simulated using the EPA's SWMM. Parameter sensitivities and model uncertainties were explored via Monte Carlo simulations and the model was calibrated using a simple algorithm. The results showed that the Thiessen polygon approach can be used to construct urban stormwater models and generate good pipe flow simulations even in scenarios with limited sewer data.
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH
(2023)
Review
Construction & Building Technology
Adrian Chong, Yaonan Gu, Hongyuan Jia
Summary: This study provides a foundation for future research by conducting a detailed systematic review of vital aspects of BES calibration through meta-analysis and categorization. Reproducible simulations are identified as a critical issue, and an incremental approach is proposed to encourage future research's reproducibility.
ENERGY AND BUILDINGS
(2021)
Article
Automation & Control Systems
Boxuan Zhong, Rafael Luiz da Silva, Michael Tran, He Huang, Edgar Lobaton
Summary: This article focuses on the system efficiency of real-time environmental context prediction for lower limb prostheses, proposing an uncertainty-aware frame selection strategy and a dynamic Bayesian gated recurrent unit network, while also exploring the tradeoff between computational complexity and environment prediction accuracy with additional sensing modalities. Experiments demonstrate that the proposed frame selection strategy can significantly reduce computations while maintaining high accuracy, with potential for multimodality fusion.
IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON SYSTEMS MAN CYBERNETICS-SYSTEMS
(2022)
Article
Engineering, Civil
Juliane Mai
Summary: Model calibration is the process of finding model settings that produce model outputs that closely match observed data. This is especially important for environmental models where parameters cannot be directly measured. This study provides a step-by-step guide for model calibration, including techniques for sensitivity analysis, handling constrained parameters, selecting appropriate data and objective functions, and evaluating calibration success. The strategies outlined in this study aim to help both experienced and novice modelers succeed in calibrating environmental models.
JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
(2023)
Article
Computer Science, Information Systems
Jarne Verhaeghe, Thomas De Corte, Christopher M. Sauer, Tom Hendriks, Olivier W. M. Thijssens, Femke Ongenae, Paul Elbers, Jan De Waele, Sofie Van Hoecke
Summary: This study developed risk models for atrial fibrillation (AF) in intensive care unit (ICU) patients using uncertainty quantification. The models showed good performance and accurate prediction of AF risk in multiple ICU datasets.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF MEDICAL INFORMATICS
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Agnethe Nedergaard Pedersen, Annette Brink-Kjaer, Peter Steen Mikkelsen
Summary: Simulation models in urban drainage engineering may contain errors and uncertainties, which can be assessed across multiple sites by comparing model results with measurements. Using hydrological signatures, the study highlights the reliability of the model for different objectives and suggests methods for improvement and refinement in the future.
HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES
(2022)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Enrico Bonanno, Guenter Bloeschl, Julian Klaus
Summary: This study enhanced the parameter identifiability in tracer breakthrough experiments by combining global and dynamic identifiability analysis in an iterative approach. The results showed clear improvements in parameter identifiability compared to standard methods, leading to a better understanding of solute transport in river networks. The analysis also revealed the risks of interpreting transport metrics when some model parameters are non-identifiable.
HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES
(2022)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Denise Degen, Cameron Spooner, Magdalena Scheck-Wenderoth, Mauro Cacace
Summary: Geophysical process simulations are crucial for understanding the subsurface and providing clean energy sources, but calibration and validation of physical models heavily rely on state measurements, leading to bias issues that can only be partially compensated for through suitable surrogate models and compensation schemes.
GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT
(2021)
Article
Construction & Building Technology
Jia-Hua Yang, Qing-Zhao Kong, Hong-Jun Liu, Hua-Yi Peng
Summary: This research presents an efficient Bayesian model class selection method for VAR model order selection, which quantifies uncertainties in system identification and captures structural dynamic properties effectively. Utilizing Laplace asymptotic approximation, the high-dimensional integrals involved in the calculations are approximated swiftly, solving numerical problems and discussing the propagation of uncertainties. The performance of the proposed method is demonstrated on laboratory shear and full-scale old factory buildings.
STRUCTURAL CONTROL & HEALTH MONITORING
(2021)
Article
Mathematical & Computational Biology
Richard D. Riley, Gary S. Collins
Summary: Clinical prediction models estimate an individual's risk of a particular health outcome. Many models are developed using small datasets, leading to instability in the model and its predictions. Researchers should examine instability at the model development stage and propose instability plots and measures to assess model reliability and inform critical appraisal, fairness, and validation requirements.
BIOMETRICAL JOURNAL
(2023)
Article
Energy & Fuels
Timothy Anderson, Anthony R. Kovscek
Summary: This study applies a reaction model optimization workflow to calibrate seven different ISC reaction models and simulate the combustion of two heavy oil samples based on experimental data. The results indicate that reaction models with fewer reactions or parameters can equally or even better describe heavy oil combustion, and the number of stages of pseudocomponent decomposition is the most important aspect of a reaction model.
Article
Environmental Sciences
K. C. Abbaspour
Summary: Using parameters from the best-fit simulation to represent a calibrated hydrological model may lead to misleading results, as the best solution's parameters may differ significantly from the next best set. The non-uniqueness of objective function values in calibration poses challenges in interpreting watershed processes accurately, and researchers must consider model output uncertainty to assess calibration/validation effectively.
SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
(2022)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Steven J. Phipps, Jason L. Roberts, Matt A. King
Summary: Parameterisations are simplified schemes used in geoscientific models to describe physical processes, with values that may be poorly constrained. Uncertainty in parameter values leads to uncertainty in model outputs. A systematic approach for sampling parameter space is necessary for proper quantification of uncertainty in model predictions. Large ensemble modelling is required to incorporate the uncertainty arising from parameterisation of physical processes.
GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT
(2021)
Article
Nuclear Science & Technology
Riccardo Cocci, Guillaume Damblin, Alberto Ghione, Lucia Sargentini, Didier Lucor
Summary: This paper presents a methodology called Bayesian calibration for the development, validation, and uncertainty quantification of closure laws in thermal-hydraulic system codes. It introduces a robust and reliable assessment, selection, and uncertainty quantification of physical models by tuning parameters and selecting the best-suited model based on statistical indicators. The paper also discusses the application of this methodology to condensation heat transfer correlations.
ANNALS OF NUCLEAR ENERGY
(2022)
Article
Mathematical & Computational Biology
Michael Edlinger, Maarten van Smeden, Hannes F. Alber, Maria Wanitschek, Ben Van Calster
Summary: Calibration of risk prediction models is crucial, especially for ordinal outcomes, but research in this area is limited. This study compared calibration measures for risk models predicting discrete ordinal outcomes, and found that multinomial logistic regression generally provides more accurate risk estimates. The study also showed that the proportional odds assumption impacts calibration and overfitting.
STATISTICS IN MEDICINE
(2022)
Article
Operations Research & Management Science
Wenyu Wang, Taimoor Akhtar, Christine A. Shoemaker
Summary: The paper introduces a novel and effective optimization algorithm, epsilon-MaSO, which combines epsilon-dominance with iterative Radial Basis Function surrogate-assisted framework for solving problems with many expensive objectives. It also incorporates a new strategy for selecting points for expensive evaluations and introduces a bi-level restart mechanism to prevent the algorithm from remaining in a local optimum.
JOURNAL OF GLOBAL OPTIMIZATION
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Robert Chlumsky, Juliane Mai, James R. Craig, Bryan A. Tolson
Summary: The improvement of hydrological modeling frameworks allows for both model structure and parameters to be automatically calibrated and evaluated. The blended model structure calibration method can identify near-optimal model structures at significantly lower computational cost, as well as help identify dominant processes and model structures in catchments.
WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH
(2021)
Article
Computer Science, Interdisciplinary Applications
Wei Xia, Christine A. Shoemaker
Summary: This paper explores the impact of cache memory limitations on the efficiency of using parallel global optimization methods, and proposes a novel mixed affinity scheduling strategy to improve computational efficiency, reducing the optimization time for expensive PDE models.
COMPUTER-AIDED CIVIL AND INFRASTRUCTURE ENGINEERING
(2022)
Article
Computer Science, Interdisciplinary Applications
Min Pang, Christine Ann Shoemaker, David Bindel
Summary: Automatic calibration is widely used in hydrological models to estimate parameters by minimizing the discrepancy between field data and simulation. This study introduces a new asynchronous parallel surrogate-assisted optimization algorithm, showing significantly better performance in efficiency and robustness compared to other algorithms. This asynchronous algorithm achieves the same results with 40%-70% less computation time than its synchronous counterpart.
ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE
(2022)
Article
Computer Science, Interdisciplinary Applications
Juliane Mai, James R. Craig, Bryan A. Tolson
Summary: This article provides a simple algorithm for randomly sampling a set of weights with their sum constrained to be equal to one. The algorithm has potential applications in calibration, uncertainty analysis, and sensitivity analysis of environmental models. The author demonstrates the efficiency and superiority of the proposed method compared to alternative sampling methods through three example applications.
ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Hongren Shen, Bryan A. Tolson, Juliane Mai
Summary: This study empirically assesses how different data splitting methods influence post-validation model testing period performance in hydrological modeling. The findings suggest that calibrating to older data and then validating models on newer data produces inferior model testing period performance, while calibrating to the full available data and skipping model validation is the most robust split-sample decision. The experimental findings remain consistent across different factors and strongly support revising the traditional split-sample approach in hydrological modeling.
WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH
(2022)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Juliane Mai, James R. Craig, Bryan A. Tolson, Richard Arsenault
Summary: The sensitivity of streamflow simulations to different hydrologic processes is analyzed in this study, using a novel analysis method that considers both parametric and structural uncertainties. The results show that quickflow is the most sensitive process for streamflow simulations across North America. Approximations of model process and parameter sensitivities are derived based on physiographic and climatologic data, and detailed spatio-temporal inputs and results are shared through an interactive website.
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
(2022)
Review
Computer Science, Interdisciplinary Applications
Marjan Asgari, Wanhong Yang, John Lindsay, Bryan Tolson, Maryam Mehri Dehnavi
Summary: This paper reviews the application of parallel computing in calibrating watershed hydrologic models and summarizes their contributions, knowledge gaps, and future research directions. The studies parallelized models using random-sampling-based algorithms or optimization algorithms and achieved significant speedup gain and efficiency. However, the speedup gain and efficiency decrease as the number of parallel processing units increases, especially after a certain threshold. Various combinations of hydrologic models, optimization algorithms, parallelization strategies, architectures, and communication modes need to be explored to improve speedup gain, efficiency, and solution quality. A standardized set of performance evaluation metrics should be developed to assess parallelization approaches. Interactive multiobjective optimization algorithms and integrated sensitivity analysis and calibration algorithms can also be potential future research areas.
ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Min Pang, Erhu Du, Christine A. Shoemaker, Chunmiao Zheng
Summary: This paper introduces a method for designing groundwater exploitation schedules with constraints on land subsidence. It is the first application of a parallelized surrogate-based global optimization algorithm to this problem. The study demonstrates significant computational cost and time advantages of this method in a large region in China.
JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Wei Lu, Wei Xia, Christine A. Shoemaker
Summary: This study investigates the application of optimization methods in low-impact development (LID) design and proposes a framework that searches for the optimal LID configurations based on flood damage cost and LID life cycle cost. A case study is conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of the framework. The results show that the proposed surrogate optimization method, DYCORS, is a promising approach for minimizing flood damage cost and LID life cycle cost.
WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Wei Xia, Christine Ann Shoemaker
Summary: This article introduces a new parameter calibration strategy called Rep-OPT, which uses multiple optimization steps and postanalysis techniques to help modelers select appropriate calibration parameters. Its effectiveness is demonstrated through its application on a complex water quality model.
WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Min Pang, Christine A. Shoemaker
Summary: Contamination of groundwater resources poses a threat to human health and ecosystems globally. Groundwater remediation is crucial but costly and time-consuming. This study introduces a parallel optimization algorithm, p-SRBF, which shows promising performance in achieving cost-effective groundwater remediation designs. Compared to other algorithms, p-SRBF outperforms in objective quality, computational reduction, and robustness across multiple trials.
SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Martin Gauch, Frederik Kratzert, Oren Gilon, Hoshin Gupta, Juliane Mai, Grey Nearing, Bryan Tolson, Sepp Hochreiter, Daniel Klotz
Summary: Building accurate rainfall-runoff models is crucial in hydrological science and practice. In this study, expert opinions were compared with quantitative metrics, and it was found that experts generally agreed with the metrics and showed a preference for Machine Learning models over traditional hydrological models. Although there were inconsistencies in expert opinions, where there was agreement, the opinions could be predicted from the quantitative metrics.
WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Wei Xia, Taimoor Akhtar, Christine A. Shoemaker
Summary: This study introduces a novel Dynamically Normalized Objective Function (DYNO) for multivariable model calibration problems. DYNO combines the error metrics of multiple variables into a single objective function by dynamically normalizing each variable's error terms. It adjusts the weight of each variable's error dynamically to balance the calibration. The results indicate that DYNO can balance the calibration of water temperature and velocity and that calibrating to only one variable cannot guarantee the goodness-of-fit of another variable. Our study suggests that including direct velocity measurements is likely to be more effective than using only temperature measurements for calibrating a 3D hydrodynamic model.
HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES
(2022)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Juliane Mai, Hongren Shen, Bryan A. Tolson, Etienne Gaborit, Richard Arsenault, James R. Craig, Vincent Fortin, Lauren M. Fry, Martin Gauch, Daniel Klotz, Frederik Kratzert, Nicole O'Brien, Daniel G. Princz, Sinan Rasiya Koya, Tirthankar Roy, Frank Seglenieks, Narayan K. Shrestha, Andre G. T. Temgoua, Vincent Vionnet, Jonathan W. Waddell
Summary: This study conducted a model intercomparison to compare different model setups in simulating outputs in the Great Lakes region. The results showed that the machine-learning-based model performed the best in simulating streamflow, while the locally calibrated models and regionally calibrated models showed varying performances in different areas. The study also compared additional model outputs, such as evapotranspiration, soil moisture, and snow water equivalent, against gridded reference datasets.
HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES
(2022)