Article
Environmental Sciences
Xuan Pang, Yundong Gu, Samuli Launiainen, Mingfu Guan
Summary: This study investigates the hydrological response of an urban catchment in Southern Finland to climate change and urbanization. The findings show that changes in precipitation and temperature significantly affect urban streamflow, with future climate change leading to a shift in the seasonal distribution of urban streamflow. Additionally, urbanization has an impact on flow differences along with climate change.
SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
ZhaoBin Sun, Yan Tao, Qian Xing, Jing Shang, Shiguang Miao, Chan Xiao, Canjun Zheng
Summary: Climate change, urbanization, and population aging pose potential threats to the health and survival of residents. This study examines the effects of temperature, urbanization, and population aging on future cardiovascular disease mortality. The findings indicate that improving urbanization can decrease mortality, while increased aging can increase mortality. Aging is identified as the biggest challenge in addressing climate change. Therefore, it is important to continue urbanization efforts to reduce health risks and improve healthcare and resource allocation to adapt to climate change.
ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL
(2022)
Article
Ecology
Peter J. Marcotullio, Carsten Kessler, Rebeca Quintero Gonzalez, Michael Schmeltz
Summary: This study found that urban residents in tropical cities experience higher temperatures compared to those living outside of cities, and that temperatures are rising faster in urban areas than in non-urban areas in certain tropical zones. Population density, infrastructure, and urban land use patterns are key factors associated with variations in temperatures, with dense urban forms linked to higher temperatures. Infrastructure is a better predictor of temperature increases in wet-dry savanna tropical climates than population density. Urban managers can implement various mitigation measures to address heat, but further research is needed to evaluate their effectiveness.
FRONTIERS IN ECOLOGY AND EVOLUTION
(2021)
Article
Entomology
Baptiste Regnier, Judith Legrand, Paul-Andre Calatayud, Francois Rebaudo
Summary: Crop pest damage is expected to increase due to global warming and a better understanding of the impacts of temperature changes is needed. Evaluating the impact of global warming on maize stemborer development is critical as maize is an important crop. The response of stemborers to global warming depends on the optimal temperature for their development.
Article
Green & Sustainable Science & Technology
Soumya Satyakanta Sethi, V. Vinoj, Partha Pratim Gogoi, Kiranmayi Landu, Debadatta Swain, U. C. Mohanty
Summary: India is rapidly urbanizing, and this study examines the effects of surface urban heat island intensity (SUHI) in the cities of Bhubaneswar and Cuttack from 2001 to 2020. The study finds that both cities experience a discernible annual nighttime SUHI, with Bhubaneswar's daytime SUHI weakening. The urbanization effect extends beyond the physical urban limits and has significant potential to impact local climate.
ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPMENT AND SUSTAINABILITY
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Zifeng Deng, Zhaoli Wang, Xushu Wu, Chengguang Lai, Zhaoyang Zeng
Summary: This study explores the compound effects of climate change and urbanization on tropical cyclones (TC) and flood risk in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area (GBA), and provides future projections based on different models and pathways.
Article
Environmental Sciences
Julien Boulange, Naota Hanasaki, Yusuke Satoh, Tokuta Yokohata, Hideo Shiogama, Peter Burek, Wim Thiery, Dieter Gerten, Hannes Mueller Schmied, Yoshihide Wada, Simon N. Gosling, Yadu Pokhrel, Niko Wanders
Summary: Evaluation of flood and drought characteristics under transient and equilibrium climates using a large ensemble of global hydrological models suggests that differences in flood characteristics are largely attributed to natural variability, indicating that floods derived from a transient climate reasonably approximate those expected in an equally warm, equilibrated climate. However, significant differences in drought intensity were detected over a larger global land area than expected from natural variability, with approximately 6.7% of the global land area showing discrepancies in representing drought intensities between transient and equilibrium climates.
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2021)
Article
Economics
Garreth Gibney, Thomas K. J. McDermott, John Cullinan
Summary: This study models and analyzes the impact of temperature on human morbidity, and finds that even in moderate climates, temperature has a clear effect on morbidity, with hotter temperatures leading to a significant increase in hospital attendances. This has important implications for future healthcare demand and the overall cost of climate change.
ECONOMIC MODELLING
(2023)
Review
Plant Sciences
Akiko Satake, Ai Nagahama, Eriko Sasaki
Summary: Plants have evolved to time their leafing, flowering, and fruiting in appropriate seasons, adapting to different geographical environments. Recent progress in genetic and molecular studies provides opportunities to study the genetic basis and adaptation history of plant phenological traits. Integrating molecular data with long-term phenology and climate data into predictive models can help forecast future phenological changes in the face of global environmental change.
Editorial Material
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Moriaki Yasuhara, Curtis A. Deutsch
Summary: The increase in species diversity towards the tropics is a remarkable global phenomenon that has not been fully explained yet. Evidence from ocean microfossils suggests that this pattern emerged due to ancient climate cooling and polar-climate dynamics.
Article
Ecology
Fernanda de Barros, Paulo L. Bittencourt, Cleiton B. Eller, Caroline Signori-Muller, Leonardo D. Meireles, Rafael S. Oliveira
Summary: Temperate, tropical deciduous, and tropical evergreen groups differ in their hydraulic functioning, and these differences explain forest functional composition and taxa dominance. The importance of species phytogeographical origin on TMCF functioning and niche conservatism in the evolution of hydraulic traits is evidenced. The higher drought vulnerability observed in temperate group may explain the restriction of temperate taxa distribution to wetter places during past colder and drier climate.
FUNCTIONAL ECOLOGY
(2022)
Editorial Material
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Robert L. Korty
Summary: Research based on a 30-year record of ocean current velocities suggests that tropical cyclones have intensified over time, which aligns with the belief that their strength will increase as the planet warms.
Article
Forestry
Hui-Qing Song, Yong-Qiang Wang, Chao-Long Yan, Wen-Hao Zeng, Ya-Jun Chen, Jiao-Lin Zhang, Hui Liu, Qian-Mei Zhang, Shi-Dan Zhu
Summary: Climate change has increased drought severity in species-rich tropical and subtropical forests in southern China. This study measured the leaf turgor loss point (p(tlp)) for 399 tree species and examined its relationship with tree abundance and mortality in six forest plots. The results showed that p(tlp) was related to tree abundance in high seasonality tropical forests, but not in low seasonality subtropical forests. Additionally, p(tlp) was not a good predictor of tree mortality and abundance changes in both humid and dry forests. These findings demonstrate the limited role of p(tlp) in predicting forest response to increasing droughts under climate change.
Article
Microbiology
Yifan Feng, Jianbin Wang, Jian Zhang, Xuming Qi, Wenxing Long, Yi Ding, Lan Liu
Summary: Tropical montane ecosystems have high biodiversity and the variability of mountain climate is important for sustaining this diversity. In this study, we tested this hypothesis for soil bacteria and fungi along an elevational gradient in Hainan Island, China. We found that bacterial and fungal diversity decreased with increasing elevation, and their dissimilarities increased with greater separation in elevation. Soil moisture and pH were the major drivers of fungal and bacterial diversity respectively, while soil temperature was the main driver of dissimilarities in bacterial and fungal communities. Our findings indicate that local-climate variability plays a crucial role in structuring soil microbial communities along tropical montane gradients, and they may shift in response to future climate scenarios.
FRONTIERS IN MICROBIOLOGY
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Mustafa Koc, Aktan Acar
Summary: Climate change has significant impacts on ecosystems, while the ongoing trend of urbanization requires more attention. Machine learning algorithms offer substantial advantages in understanding climate and developing urban planning.
Article
Mathematical & Computational Biology
Rohan Arambepola, Tim C. D. Lucas, Anita K. Nandi, Peter W. Gething, Ewan Cameron
Summary: Disaggregation regression is an important tool for spatial disease mapping, but validating high-resolution predictions poses a challenge. The study found that predictive performance improved with increasing number of observations and decreasing size of aggregated areas.
STATISTICS IN MEDICINE
(2022)
Article
Medicine, General & Internal
Hannah M. Thomas, Marianne J. Mullane, Sherlynn Ang, Tina Barrow, Adele Leahy, Alexandra Whelan, Karen Lombardi, Matthew Cooper, Paul G. Stevenson, Leanne Lester, Andrea Padley, Lynn Sprigg, David Speers, Adam J. Merritt, Juli Coffin, Donna Cross, Peter Gething, Asha C. Bowen
Summary: This study describes the acceptability of a minimally invasive COVID-19 screening protocol in schools. OP/Na swabbing was found to be acceptable and repeatable, with high participant acceptability and willingness to be retested.
Article
Pediatrics
H. M. Thomas, K. C. Runions, L. Lester, K. Lombardi, M. Epstein, J. Mandzufas, T. Barrow, S. Ang, A. Leahy, M. Mullane, A. Whelan, J. Coffin, F. Mitrou, S. R. Zubrick, A. C. Bowen, P. W. Gething, D. Cross
Summary: The COVID-19 pandemic has had a profound impact on the emotional wellbeing of adolescents, even in areas with low prevalence. Disruptions to daily life and changes in school routine have contributed to increased difficulties and distress among secondary school students. The proportion of students experiencing elevated distress was much higher during the pandemic compared to previous years, with distress levels increasing as the pandemic progressed.
CHILD AND ADOLESCENT PSYCHIATRY AND MENTAL HEALTH
(2022)
Article
Infectious Diseases
John M. Henry, Austin Carter, David L. Smith
Summary: Accurate estimation of the burden of malaria is crucial for strategic planning. This study reexamined historic data and found that infection age can be used as a predictor for malaria patterns. The predicted data based on infection age showed good agreement with the actual data. This research provides a new method for predicting malaria-related indicators.
Article
Biology
Charles Whittaker, Peter Winskill, Marianne Sinka, Samuel Pironon, Claire Massey, Daniel J. Weiss, Michele Nguyen, Peter W. Gething, Ashwani Kumar, Azra Ghani, Samir Bhatt
Summary: Understanding the temporal dynamics of mosquito populations is crucial for optimizing control strategies. This study analyzed 40 years of mosquito catch data from 117 locations in mainland India, covering seven species. The results showed significant variation in dynamics and seasonality between locations and species, with the identification of four different dynamical archetypes that are associated with specific environmental factors. This study highlights the importance of environmental factors in shaping mosquito population dynamics and provides a framework for identifying seasonal variation patterns in vectors relevant to public health.
PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES
(2022)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Ryan Fitzgerald, Helena Manguerra, Michael B. Arndt, William M. Gardner, Ya-Yin Chang, Bethany Zigler, Heather Jean Taylor, Kelly Bienhoff, David L. Smith, Christopher J. L. Murray, Simon Hay, Robert C. Jr Jr Reiner, Nicholas J. Kassebaum
Summary: The traditional thresholding approach fails to comprehensively assess child growth failure and obscures trends in populations with the highest rates of CGF. Our analysis presents the first ever estimates of complete distributions of child growth for different age groups and sexes, revealing hidden trends.
Article
Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
Kefyalew Addis Alene, Ahmed Elagali, Dylan D. Barth, Susan F. Rumisha, Punam Amratia, Daniel J. Weiss, Kendalem Asmare Atalell, Andargachew Kumsa Erena, Peter W. Gething, Archie C. A. Clements
Summary: This study investigated the spatial overlap and drivers of HIV, TB and malaria prevalence in Ethiopia. The results showed a high spatial concentration of HIV, TB and malaria in Ethiopia, with significant variation at different regions. The spatial distribution of these diseases was associated with healthcare access, demographic, and climatic factors.
Article
Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
Tim C. D. Lucas, Anita K. Nandi, Suzanne H. Keddie, Elisabeth G. Chestnutt, Rosalind E. Howes, Susan F. Rumisha, Rohan Arambepola, Amelia Bertozzi-Villa, Andre Python, Tasmin L. Symons, Justin J. Millar, Punam Amratia, Penelope Hancock, Katherine E. Battle, Ewan Cameron, Peter W. Gething, Daniel J. Weiss
Summary: Maps of disease burden are crucial for malaria control and elimination. This study proposes a combination of machine learning models and a disaggregation regression model to improve the accuracy of these maps. The results show that this approach enhances the accuracy of malaria burden mapping.
SPATIAL AND SPATIO-TEMPORAL EPIDEMIOLOGY
(2022)
Article
Infectious Diseases
Oliver J. Watson, Bo Gao, Tran Dang Nguyen, Thu Nguyen-Anh Tran, Melissa A. Penny, David L. Smith, Lucy Okell, Ricardo Aguas, Maciej F. Boni
Summary: This study evaluated the impact of high levels of partner-drug resistance on the early emergence of artemisinin-resistant genotypes, finding that higher frequencies of pre-existing partner-drug resistance genotypes lead to earlier establishment of artemisinin resistance. It highlights the importance of continued investment in molecular surveillance of partner-drug resistant genotypes to guide the choice of first-line ACTs.
Article
Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
Joaniter I. Nankabirwa, Emmanuel Arinaitwe, Jessica Briggs, John Rek, Philip J. Rosenthal, Moses R. Kamya, Peter Olwoch, David L. Smith, Isabel Rodriguez-Barraquer, Grant Dorsey, Bryan Greenhouse
Summary: Highly effective vector control can significantly reduce malaria burden, but individuals with parasitemia may contribute to onward transmission. A simulation based on data from Tororo District, Uganda, showed that mass drug administration (MDA) and test-and-treat interventions can accelerate decline in parasite prevalence. However, sustained benefits require repeated interventions or additional measures.
AMERICAN JOURNAL OF TROPICAL MEDICINE AND HYGIENE
(2022)
Article
Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
Joaniter I. Nankabirwa, John Rek, Emmanuel Arinaitwe, Jane Frances Namuganga, Sam L. Nsobya, Victor Asua, Henry D. Mawejje, Adrienne Epstein, Bryan Greenhouse, Isabel Rodriguez-Barraquer, Jessica Briggs, Paul J. Krezanoski, Philip J. Rosenthal, Melissa Conrad, David Smith, Sarah G. Staedke, Chris Drakeley, Teun Bousema, Chiara Andolina, Martin J. Donnelly, Moses R. Kamya, Grant Dorsey
Summary: The Program for Resistance, Immunology, Surveillance, and Modeling of Malaria (PRISM) has conducted malaria research in Uganda since 2010, providing key findings on the malaria burden and opportunities for improved control and elimination. Key findings include the significant impact of combined distribution of long-lasting insecticidal-treated nets (LLINs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS) on reducing malaria burden, the importance of submicroscopic infections in malaria transmission, changing markers of drug resistance, and high levels of insecticide resistance.
AMERICAN JOURNAL OF TROPICAL MEDICINE AND HYGIENE
(2022)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Ahmed Elagali, Ayman Ahmed, Nada Makki, Hassan Ismail, Mark Ajak, Kefyalew Addis Alene, Daniel J. Weiss, Abdalla Ahmed Mohammed, Mustafa Abubakr, Ewan Cameron, Peter Gething, Asmaa Elagali
Summary: Malaria poses a serious threat to the health of Sudan, with the epidemiology rapidly changing due to drug and insecticide resistance and political instability. Investment in improved situational awareness, early preparedness, and a national prevention and control strategy is crucial. Accurate, high-resolution endemicity maps are a key component of this strategy.
SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
(2022)
Article
Medicine, General & Internal
Rebecca Pedrick-Case, Rowena Bailey, Ben Beck, Bridget Beesley, Bryan Boruff, Sinead Brophy, Donna Cross, Gursimran Dhamrait, John Duncan, Peter Gething, Rhodri D. Johnson, Ronan A. Lyons, Amy Mizen, Kevin Murray, Theodora Pouliou, James Rafferty, Trina Robinson, Michael Rosenberg, Jasper Schipperijn, Daniel A. Thompson, Stewart G. Trost, Alan Watkins, Gareth Stratton, Richard Fry, Hayley Christian, Lucy J. Griffiths
Summary: The BEACHES study aims to identify and understand how factors in the built environment influence modifiable risk factors for non-communicable diseases in children. This observational study will use longitudinal quantitative data to investigate the impact of the built environment on children's body mass index, physical activity, sedentary behavior, and diet.
Article
Infectious Diseases
Justin M. Cohen, Deepika Kandula, David L. Smith, Arnaud Le Menach
Summary: This investigation examines historical data to assess the timelines for achieving malaria elimination based on successful elimination programs in various countries. The study finds that the median timeline from the start of elimination efforts to the year with zero local cases is 12 years, with a median decline rate of 54% per year. It also identifies certain territory characteristics that are associated with faster elimination. These findings can help countries set feasible milestones towards malaria elimination.
Article
Biochemical Research Methods
Sean L. Wu, John M. Henry, Daniel T. Citron, Doreen Mbabazi Ssebuliba, Juliet Nakakawa Nsumba, C. Hector M. Sanchez, Oliver J. Brady, Carlos A. Guerra, Guillermo A. Garcia, Austin R. Carter, Heather M. Ferguson, Bakare Emmanuel Afolabi, Simon Hay, Robert C. Reiner Jr, Samson Kiware, David L. Smith
Summary: This article introduces a patch-based differential equation modeling framework for malaria transmission dynamics. The framework extends the Ross-Macdonald model and allows for planning, monitoring, and evaluation of malaria control. New algorithms are presented to simulate mosquito demography, dispersal, and egg laying, as well as parasite dispersal and spatial dynamics. The framework can be applied to other mosquito-borne pathogens.
PLOS COMPUTATIONAL BIOLOGY
(2023)
