4.6 Article

Intercomparison of methods of coupling between convection and large-scale circulation: 1. Comparison over uniform surface conditions

期刊

出版社

AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
DOI: 10.1002/2015MS000468

关键词

tropical convection; large-scale parameterized dynamics; weak-temperature gradient; damped gravity wave; multiple equilibria

资金

  1. NERC [NE/K004034/1]
  2. National Centre for Atmospheric Science, a NERC collaborative center
  3. U.S. National Science Foundation [AGS-1056254, AGS-1342001, 1342001]
  4. NM EPSCoR
  5. NSF [AGS-1062206]
  6. NASA [NNX13AM18G]
  7. Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development Program [CATER 2013-3142]
  8. DOE Atmospheric System Research Program [DE-SC0005450, DE-SC0008779]
  9. European Commissions [282672]
  10. Natural Environment Research Council [NE/K004034/1, ncas10009] Funding Source: researchfish
  11. Div Atmospheric & Geospace Sciences
  12. Directorate For Geosciences [1056254, 1342001] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
  13. NERC [NE/K004034/1] Funding Source: UKRI
  14. U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) [DE-SC0008779] Funding Source: U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)

向作者/读者索取更多资源

As part of an international intercomparison project, a set of single-column models (SCMs) and cloud-resolving models (CRMs) are run under the weak-temperature gradient (WTG) method and the damped gravity wave (DGW) method. For each model, the implementation of the WTG or DGW method involves a simulated column which is coupled to a reference state defined with profiles obtained from the same model in radiative-convective equilibrium. The simulated column has the same surface conditions as the reference state and is initialized with profiles from the reference state. We performed systematic comparison of the behavior of different models under a consistent implementation of the WTG method and the DGW method and systematic comparison of the WTG and DGW methods in models with different physics and numerics. CRMs and SCMs produce a variety of behaviors under both WTG and DGW methods. Some of the models reproduce the reference state while others sustain a large-scale circulation which results in either substantially lower or higher precipitation compared to the value of the reference state. CRMs show a fairly linear relationship between precipitation and circulation strength. SCMs display a wider range of behaviors than CRMs. Some SCMs under the WTG method produce zero precipitation. Within an individual SCM, a DGW simulation and a corresponding WTG simulation can produce different signed circulation. When initialized with a dry troposphere, DGW simulations always result in a precipitating equilibrium state. The greatest sensitivities to the initial moisture conditions occur for multiple stable equilibria in some WTG simulations, corresponding to either a dry equilibrium state when initialized as dry or a precipitating equilibrium state when initialized as moist. Multiple equilibria are seen in more WTG simulations for higher SST. In some models, the existence of multiple equilibria is sensitive to some parameters in the WTG calculations.

作者

我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。

评论

主要评分

4.6
评分不足

次要评分

新颖性
-
重要性
-
科学严谨性
-
评价这篇论文

推荐

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Turbulence Characteristics Across a Range of Idealized Urban Canopy Geometries

Lewis P. Blunn, Omduth Coceal, Negin Nazarian, Janet F. Barlow, Robert S. Plant, Sylvia Bohnenstengel, Humphrey W. Lean

Summary: Accurate representation of turbulence in urban canopy models is crucial for predicting momentum and scalar distribution. Studies on turbulence characteristics under different conditions revealed similar momentum mixing-length profiles and the significance of dispersive momentum fluxes in real urban settings.

BOUNDARY-LAYER METEOROLOGY (2022)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

The African SWIFT Project Growing Science Capability to Bring about a Revolution in Weather Prediction

Douglas J. Parker, Alan M. Blyth, Steven J. Woolnough, Andrew J. Dougill, Caroline L. Bain, Estelle de Coning, Mariane Diop-Kane, Andre Kamga Foamouhoue, Benjamin Lamptey, Ousmane Ndiaye, Paolo Ruti, Elijah A. Adefisan, Leonard K. Amekudzi, Philip Antwi-Agyei, Cathryn E. Birch, Carlo Cafaro, Hamish Carr, Benard Chanzu, Samantha J. Clarke, Helen Coskeran, Sylvester K. Danuor, Felipe M. de Andrade, Kone Diakaria, Cheikh Dione, Cheikh Abdoulahat Diop, Jennifer K. Fletcher, Amadou T. Gaye, James L. Groves, Masilin Gudoshava, Andrew J. Hartley, Linda C. Hirons, Ishiyaku Ibrahim, Tamora D. James, Kamoru A. Lawal, John H. Marsham, J. N. Mutemi, Emmanuel Chilekwu Okogbue, Eniola Olaniyan, J. B. Omotosho, Joseph Portuphy, Alexander J. Roberts, Juliane Schwendike, Zewdu T. Segele, Thorwald H. M. Stein, Andrea L. Taylor, Christopher M. Taylor, Tanya A. Warnaars, Stuart Webster, Beth J. Woodhams, Lorraine Youds

Summary: Africa has the potential to benefit greatly from advancements in weather predictions, and the SWIFT project is playing a significant role in advancing scientific solutions and enhancing forecasting capabilities in the region. By focusing on research, training, and collaboration between academia and operational agencies, SWIFT is helping to build capacity in African meteorology and improve the quality and relevance of weather forecasts.

BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY (2022)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Weather patterns in Southeast Asia: Relationship with tropical variability and heavy precipitation

Emma Howard, Simon Thomas, Thomas H. A. Frame, Paula L. M. Gonzalez, John Methven, Oscar Martinez-Alvarado, Steven J. Woolnough

Summary: Two sets of weather patterns in Southeast Asia are presented and compared, showing the ability to capture different modes of tropical circulation variability. The study found that while the patterns can distinguish various climate modes effectively, there are still some modes that are not well captured. The weather patterns show promising potential in extending the useful forecast range for the risk of heavy precipitation.

QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY (2022)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

A Machine-Learning-Assisted Stochastic Cloud Population Model as a Parameterization of Cumulus Convection

Samson Hagos, Jingyi Chen, Katelyn Barber, Koichi Sakaguchi, Robert S. Plant, Zhe Feng, Heng Xiao

Summary: A machine-learning-assisted stochastic cloud population model is developed and coupled with the WRF model to simulate fluctuations in cloud-base mass flux caused by the life cycles and interactions of cumulus convection cells. The model uses a neural network trained on convective cell size distributions to predict the cell size and cloud-base mass flux distributions. This approach shows promise in simulating realistic precipitation statistics and propagation associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation, while maintaining realistic depictions of the diurnal cycle over land and ocean.

JOURNAL OF ADVANCES IN MODELING EARTH SYSTEMS (2022)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Atmospheric and oceanic conditions associated with early and late onset for Eastern Africa short rains

Masilin Gudoshava, Caroline Wainwright, Linda Hirons, Hussen S. Endris, Zewdu T. Segele, Steve Woolnough, Zachary Atheru, Guleid Artan

Summary: The timing of the rainy season is crucial for various sectors in Eastern Africa. Early onset is associated with increased rainfall and warmer sea surface temperatures, while late onset is associated with rainfall deficit and cooler sea surface temperatures. The variability in onset date is influenced by Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures and circulation.

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY (2022)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

How Do Stratospheric Perturbations Influence North American Weather Regime Predictions?

Simon H. H. Lee, Andrew J. J. Charlton-Perez, Steven J. J. Woolnough, Jason C. C. Furtado

Summary: This study investigates the impact of forecast error and uncertainty in the polar vortex on predictions of large-scale weather patterns called regimes over North America. The results provide a framework for interpreting the stratospheric influence on North American regime behavior and can be used to improve weather forecast models.

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE (2022)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

The Influence of Intraseasonal Oscillations on Humid Heat in the Persian Gulf and South Asia

Catherine Ivanovich, Weston Anderson, Radley Horton, Colin Raymond, Adam Sobel

Summary: This study investigates the relationship between extreme humid heat events in the Persian Gulf and South Asia and intraseasonal climate variability. The results show that variations in moisture and local circulation anomalies play a crucial role in anomalously high wet-bulb temperatures. This research contributes to the subseasonal prediction of extreme humid heat in regions where it has a significant impact.

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE (2022)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

A Filtered Model for the Tropical Intraseasonal Moisture Mode

Shuguang Wang, Adam H. Sobel

Summary: The authors propose a new approximation method to understand the moisture modes in idealized models of tropical intraseasonal oscillations. This method provides physical insights and filters out disturbances, enhancing the understanding of these oscillation patterns.

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2022)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

The impact of surface heterogeneity on the diurnal cycle of deep convection

Natalie J. Harvey, Chimene L. Daleu, Rachel A. Stratton, Robert S. Plant, Steven J. Woolnough, Alison J. Stirling

Summary: Despite recent improvements, model simulations using parameterised convection still struggle in accurately capturing the daily cycle of precipitation in tropical regions. Cloud-resolving simulations provide insights into precipitation formation and can serve as benchmarks for evaluating and improving parameterisation schemes.

QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY (2022)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Weather patterns in Southeast Asia: Enhancing high-impact weather subseasonal forecast skill

Paula L. M. Gonzalez, Emma Howard, Samantha Ferrett, Thomas H. A. Frame, Oscar Martinez-Alvarado, John Methven, Steven J. Woolnough

Summary: In this study, pattern-conditioned probabilistic rainfall forecasts were produced by combining the horizontal winds from the Met Office GloSea5 prediction system with weather patterns. The results showed that this approach outperformed model-simulated rainfall hindcasts in predicting rainfall for lead times of 10-20 days. This is a fundamental step for the development of subseasonal prediction systems for Southeast Asia.

QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY (2023)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Sensible heat fluxes control cloud trail strength

Michael C. Johnston, Christopher E. Holloway, Robert S. Plant

Summary: Convective cloud bands known as cloud trails (CTs) are frequently observed downwind of small islands worldwide. These CTs primarily form in the afternoon due to land-sea contrasts and background flow. Idealized numerical experiments based on observed environmental conditions off Bermuda are conducted to quantify the relationship between island surface forcing and CT circulation strength. The experiments reveal that the integrated excess heating caused by the island determines the strength of the CT circulation, with a linear relationship between CT circulation and island surface heat flux when other factors are constant.

QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY (2023)

Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

The role of tropical waves in the genesis of Tropical Cyclone Seroja in the Maritime Continent

Beata Latos, Philippe Peyrille, Thierry Lefort, Dariusz B. Baranowski, Maria K. Flatau, Piotr J. Flatau, Nelly Florida Riama, Donaldi S. Permana, Adam V. Rydbeck, Adrian J. Matthews

Summary: In April 2021, tropical cyclone Seroja became one of the first cyclones to hit the near-equatorial regions of Indonesia and East Timor. The unique cyclogenesis close to land was a result of perfect storm conditions caused by multiple wave interactions. This finding suggests that the predictability of tropical cyclones over the Maritime Continent may be increased.

NATURE COMMUNICATIONS (2023)

Article Environmental Sciences

Forecasting annual maximum water level for the Negro River at Manaus using dynamical seasonal predictions

Amulya Chevuturi, Nicholas P. Klingaman, Steven J. Woolnough, Conrado M. Rudorff, Caio A. S. Coelho, Jochen Schongart

Summary: Accurate prediction of the maximum water levels of the Negro River in Manaus is crucial for effective mitigation measures. By using dynamical seasonal prediction hindcasts, we were able to extend the lead time of statistical models for earlier forecasts. The developed ensemble forecasts, using input from observations and seasonal hindcasts, perform similarly to the original statistical forecasts and gain one month of lead time.

CLIMATE SERVICES (2023)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Tropical Waves Are Key Drivers of Extreme Precipitation Events in the Central Sahel

Philippe Peyrille, Romain Roehrig, Sidiki Sanogo

Summary: This study investigates the sub-seasonal drivers of extreme precipitation events (EPE) in the Central Sahel. A statistical approach is used to analyze the average EPE. It is found that EPEs occur within a large-scale moist anomaly, an upper-level divergence, and at shorter scales an intense vortex. These features are provided by multiple tropical waves, especially an Equatorial Rossby wave (ER) and an African Easterly Wave (AEW). Statistics show that the combination of AEW with ER and/or Kelvin wave increases the probability of EPE. Monitoring these tropical wave combinations could improve EPE forecasts.

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2023)

Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Near-term tropical cyclone risk and coupled Earth system model biases

Adam H. Sobel, Chia-Ying Lee, Steven G. Bowen, Suzana J. Camargo, Mark A. Cane, Amy Clement, Boniface Fosu, Megan Hart, Kevin A. Reed, Richard Seager, Michael K. Tippett

Summary: Recent research shows that climate models incorrectly simulate the equatorial Pacific response to greenhouse gas warming, leading to a discrepancy between model predictions and observations of a more La Nina-like state. This could result in incorrect projections of regional tropical cyclone activity and other perils such as severe convective storms and droughts. While these errors may be transient, the transient response is important for climate adaptation in the next several decades. Therefore, it is desirable to develop projections that represent a broader range of possible future tropical Pacific warming scenarios, even if current coupled earth system models cannot produce such projections.

PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA (2023)

暂无数据