TRAIT-DEPENDENT EXTINCTION LEADS TO GREATER EXPECTED BIODIVERSITY LOSS

We use a classical combinatorial inequality to establish a Markov inequality for multivariate binary Markov processes on trees. We then apply this result, alongside the Fortuin-Kasteleyn-Ginibre (FKG) inequality, to compare the expected loss of biodiversity under two models of species extinction. One of these models is the generalized version of an earlier model in which extinction is influenced by some trait that can be classified into two states and which evolves on a tree according to a Markov process. Since more than one trait can affect the rates of species extinction, it is reasonable to allow, in the generalized model, k binary states that influence extinction rates. We compare this model to one that has matching marginal extinction probabilities for each species but for which the species extinction events are stochastically independent.