Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Ruiqiang Ding, Hyacinth C. Nnamchi, Jin-Yi Yu, Tim Li, Cheng Sun, Jianping Li, Yu-Heng Tseng, Xichen Li, Fei Xie, Juan Feng, Kai Ji, Xumin Li
Summary: The connection between the North Tropical Atlantic (NTA) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events varies considerably over multidecadal timescales and is mainly controlled by the multidecadal variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). During the positive phase of the NAO, the NTA impact on ENSO is amplified due to strengthening of precipitation over the equatorial Atlantic and enhancement of the persistence of NTA SST anomalies.
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Jae-Heung Park, Jong-Seong Kug, Young-Min Yang, Hyoeun Oh, Jiuwei Zhao, Yikai Wu
Summary: This study examined the impact of anomalous sea surface temperature in the north tropical Atlantic (NTA) on El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the diversity of this impact in climate models. The analysis found that the strength of NTA's effect on ENSO in the climate models was proportional to the intensity of the climatological subtropical North Pacific high system in boreal spring. The observed NTA effect on ENSO also became stronger during periods when the climatological subtropical North Pacific high intensified, indicating the importance of climatology in the NTA-ENSO connection.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2022)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Yi Liu, Ziguang Li, Xiaopei Lin, Jun-Chao Yang
Summary: The study suggests that under greenhouse warming, the connection between El Nino and the tropical North Atlantic will strengthen, leading to an increase in anomalous warming/cooling and related weather extremes in the future.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Jun-Chao Yang, Yu Zhang, Ingo Richter, Xiaopei Lin
Summary: The interannual variability of moisture transport from the Atlantic to Pacific is dominated by transbasin winds across Central America, peaking in late summer and late winter. This variability is influenced by the interaction between developing El Nino and mature Atlantic Nina in late summer, while in late winter, the Pacific-North American-like pattern intensifies the variability. Extreme El Nino events also play a role in these variations.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Rajashree Naha, Shayne Mcgregor, Martin Singh
Summary: Recent analysis suggests that the influence of the tropical Atlantic Ocean on the tropical Pacific Ocean has become more pronounced after 1980, while the influence of the tropical Indian Ocean appears to have weakened. This study explores the modulation of these pantropical connections by decadal changes in the tropical Atlantic and Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs), and investigates the role of changes in Pacific decadal variability (PDV).
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Shaohua Chen, Haikun Zhao, Graciela B. Raga, Philip J. Klotzbach
Summary: This study highlights the significant influences of tropical transbasin variability (TBV) and ENSO on tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific, eastern North Pacific, and North Atlantic Ocean basins. The modulation of TC counts varies in each basin due to different effects of TBV and ENSO, with low-level relative vorticity and large-scale factors playing important roles in regulating TC frequency.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Chiyu Zhao, Xin Geng, Wenjun Zhang, Li Qi
Summary: This study finds that the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) can affect the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). It shows that during a negative AMO phase, the atmospheric anomaly amplitudes in the tropical Pacific for El Nino events are more pronounced and for La Nina events are weaker, compared to a positive AMO phase. This discrepancy may be largely attributed to the decadal modulation of AMO.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2022)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Feng Jiang, Wenjun Zhang, Fei-Fei Jin, Malte F. F. Stuecker, Axel Timmermann, Michael J. J. McPhaden, Julien Boucharel, Andrew T. T. Wittenberg
Summary: Understanding the connection between the tropical Pacific and Atlantic Oceans has been a challenge for the climate community. While Atlantic Nino events are usually followed by Pacific events of opposite sign, incorporating Atlantic information does not enhance predictive skill for subsequent ENSO events. This study resolves this conundrum by showing that the observed correlation between Atlantic and Pacific is a statistical artifact, and the impact of Pacific events on the Atlantic is limited to a short window in late spring.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Yingying Zhao, Emanuele Di Lorenzo, Daoxun Sun, Samantha Stevenson
Summary: Observational analyses indicate that a significant portion of the tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV) is influenced by extratropical precursors of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) from the North and South Pacific. Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project find that while most can simulate the observed spatial pattern and frequency characteristics of the TPDV, they tend to underestimate the influence of extratropical ENSO precursors. Better representation of ENSO precursor dynamics in the models could lead to improved understanding and predictability of Pacific decadal variability.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Wei Chen
Summary: This study finds that the impact of ENSO on the sea surface temperature anomalies in the northeast tropical Atlantic weakened after the mid-1980s, while remaining stable in the northwest tropical Atlantic. The El Nino-related teleconnections shifted westward, leading to an increase in positive sea surface temperature anomalies in the NWTA and a decrease in the NETA.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Ingo Richter, Hiroki Tokinaga, Yu Kosaka, Takeshi Doi, Takahito Kataoka
Summary: The tropical Atlantic has a weak influence on ENSO development, mainly acting to modulate ongoing events rather than initiate them.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Zhen Lv, Jun-Chao Yang, Xiaopei Lin, Yu Zhang
Summary: This study suggests that the North Atlantic forcing plays a more significant role than the tropical Pacific forcing in the decadal prediction of sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the North Pacific. By removing the North Atlantic forcing, the prediction skill of NP SST decreases, indicating its strong contribution to the long-term prediction. The research emphasizes the need for improving the simulation of the Atlantic trans-basin effect for better predicting NP climate.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Zachary F. Johnson, Daniel R. Chavas, Hamish A. Ramsay
Summary: This study introduces a statistical framework for estimating the seasonal count of tropical cyclone (TC) landfalls and identifies the influences of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the western extent of the Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) on landfall count. The study finds that ENSO modulates the zonal distribution of TC genesis, while the WPSH modulates the meridional distribution of landfall probability.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Yingying Zhao, Matthew Newman, Antonietta Capotondi, Emanuele Di Lorenzo, Daoxun Sun
Summary: The study shows that tropical regions contribute significantly to North Pacific climate variability, especially along the North American coast and within the Subtropical Front region northwest of Hawaii. Conversely, variability within the Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension region is less impacted by tropical regions. CMIP6 models tend to exhibit North Pacific variability that aligns more with the KOE pattern rather than the PDO pattern seen in observations.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Inigo Gomara, Belen Rodriguez-Fonseca, Elsa Mohino, Teresa Losada, Irene Polo, Marta Coll
Summary: This study examines the predictability of tropical Pacific upwelling-dependent ecosystems and the influence of equatorial Atlantic sea surface temperatures on tropical Pacific fisheries. A proposed physical-biological mechanism explains how SSTs in the equatorial Atlantic affect nutrient-rich upwelling waters in the tropical Pacific, leading to predictable impacts on marine food webs. The results suggest that by using historical climate data and marine ecosystem models, accurate predictions of tropical Pacific fisheries up to three years in advance are possible.
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2021)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Juan J. Gonzalez-Aleman, Christian M. Grams, Blanca Ayarzaguena, Pablo Zurita-Gotor, Daniela I. Domeisen, Inigo Gomara, Belen Rodriguez-Fonseca, Frederic Vitart
Summary: We investigate the impact of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) on the troposphere and their predictability limits through the study of the 2018 SSW event. The study finds that dynamical tropospheric events, consisting of two cyclogenesis events, were the main reasons for the predictability barriers in the prediction of negative NAM/NAO anomalies reaching the surface. This work sheds light on the stratosphere-troposphere coupling and the individual synoptic events that can hinder predictability during the downward impact of SSW events.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Irfan Ur Rashid, Muhammad Adnan Abid, Mansour Almazroui, Fred Kucharski, Muhammad Hanif, Shaukat Ali, Muhammad Ismail
Summary: The study analyzed the interannual surface air temperature (SAT) variability over Pakistan during early summer. It found that upper-level anticyclonic circulation anomalies over Pakistan and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) were negatively associated with SAT anomalies. The Saudi-KAU Atmospheric Global Climate Model (AGCM) simulations were in good agreement with the observations, with sensitivity experiments confirming the influence of cold and warm ENSO phases on SAT anomalies. These results are important for understanding and potentially predicting regional heatwaves in the South Asian region, particularly in Pakistan.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Sajjad Saeed, Fred Kucharski, Mansour Almazroui
Summary: This study investigates the impacts of mid-latitude circulation on winter temperature variability in the Arabian Peninsula. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is found to be an important mode of winter climate variability in the northern hemisphere. The research reveals different anomalies in the northern and southern Arabian Peninsula, and a Circumglobal wave-like pattern extending from the North Atlantic to the East Asia region.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
N. Sandeep, P. Swapna, R. Krishnan, R. Farneti, F. Kucharski, Aditi Modi, A. G. Prajeesh, D. C. Ayantika, S. Manmeet
Summary: The long-term variability of the South Asian Summer Monsoon (SASM) is known to be associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), but recent decades have seen a weakening of this relationship. The warming of the Indian Ocean and the weakening of the North Atlantic Subtropical High (NASH) are identified as factors contributing to the weakening association between AMO and SASM. This has implications for understanding future changes in SASM in a warming world.
Article
Environmental Sciences
Lander R. Crespo, Ma Belen Rodriguez-Fonseca, Irene Polo, Noel Keenlyside, Dietmar Dommenget
Summary: This study utilizes a conceptual recharge oscillator model to identify changes in El Nino and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) statistics and dynamics during the observational record. The variability of ENSO has increased during the 20th century, and the cross-correlation between sea surface temperature (SST) and warm water volume (WWV) has also changed. A full recharge-discharge mechanism is observed from the 1970s onwards, while climate models show little decadal changes in ENSO properties.
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Ruibin Ding, In-Sik Kang, Riccardo Farneti, Fred Kucharski, Fabio Di Sante, Jiliang Xuan, Feng Zhou, Tao Zhang
Summary: This study investigates the internal and ENSO-forced modes of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) using a high-resolution regional coupled model. The study finds that ENSO forcing is the main factor that modifies the spatial patterns of EOFs, and ENSO also determines the major periods of IOB and IOD. Additionally, the study discovers a seasonally dependent relationship between IOB and IOD in both internal and ENSO-forced simulations.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2022)
Article
Oceanography
Ignasi Valles-Casanova, Eugenio Fraile-Nuez, Marta Martin-Rey, Erik van Sebille, Anna Cabre, Anna Olive-Abello, Josep L. Pelegri
Summary: The equatorial retroflection of the North Brazil Current and its posterior tropical recirculation play a major role in regulating the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. This study explores the recirculation pathways and transport variability using cruise data and reanalysis time series. The results show pronounced seasonality in the equatorial and tropical waters, and an enhanced contribution from the South Atlantic tropical waters during 2008-2016 compared to 1997-2007.
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Cheng Sun, Yusen Liu, Tian Wei, Fred Kucharski, Jianping Li, Chunzai Wang
Summary: A significant interhemispheric influence from the subtropical Southwest Pacific on the tropical western Pacific is found, with the sea surface temperature (SST) in the Southwest Pacific in spring showing strong coherence with TWP SST 6 months later. This influence is driven by the wind-evaporation-SST feedback mechanism, and can be successfully reproduced by climate models, improving the predictability of TWP SST.
NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE
(2022)
Correction
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Daniel L. R. Hodson, Pierre-Antoine Bretonniere, Christophe Cassou, Paolo Davini, Nicholas P. Klingaman, Katja Lohmann, Jorge Lopez-Parages, Marta Martin-Rey, Marie-Pierre Moine, Paul-Arthur Monerie, Dian A. Putrasahan, Christopher D. Roberts, Jon Robson, Yohan Ruprich-Robert, Emilia Sanchez-Gomez, Jon Seddon, Retish Senan
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Matthew F. Horan, Fulden Batibeniz, Fred Kucharski, Mansour Almazroui, Muhammad Adnan Abid, Joshua S. Fu, Moetasim Ashfaq
Summary: This study applies the Lagrangian-based moisture back trajectory method to investigate the moisture sources for wet season precipitation over the Arabian Peninsula. The results show that moisture in the northern part of the peninsula mainly comes from midlatitude land and water bodies, while the southern part relies on moisture transport from the Western Indian Ocean and parts of the African continent. Additionally, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation has a positive but seasonally varying influence on precipitation variability in the region.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Muhammad Adnan Abid, Fred Kucharski, Franco Molteni, Mansour Almazroui
Summary: This study finds that the autumn Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are the two main forcing mechanisms for the early winter tropical Western-Central Indian Ocean (WCIO) precipitation anomalies. The IOD dominates over the ENSO contribution. Furthermore, the Indian Ocean precipitation anomalies during early winter also significantly affect the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the temperature anomalies in central and western Europe.
NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Hyacinth C. Nnamchi, Riccardo Farneti, Noel S. Keenlyside, Fred Kucharski, Mojib Latif, Annika Reintges, Thomas Martin
Summary: An analysis of observations from 1900 to 2009 suggests that variations in Atlantic Ocean circulation on timescales of 10 to 15 years lead to the pan-Atlantic Decadal Oscillation, a pattern of north-south bands of temperature anomalies, and may exert an important influence. The study uncovers ocean circulation variability associated with the pan-Atlantic decadal oscillation and reveals that ocean circulation plays an active role in the climate oscillation. The findings challenge the prevailing theories based on thermodynamic air-sea interactions and bring a better understanding of the Atlantic climate.
COMMUNICATIONS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Moetasim Ashfaq, Nathaniel Johnson, Fred Kucharski, Noah S. Diffenbaugh, Muhammad Adnan Abid, Matthew F. Horan, Deepti Singh, Salil Mahajan, Subimal Ghosh, Auroop R. Ganguly, Katherine J. Evans, Shafiqul Islam
Summary: The monsoons in Pakistan have become exceptionally harsh, resulting in drought and flooding. This change is widely attributed to climate change, but natural climate variability may also play a role. Research has found that variations in sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific and northern Arabian Sea, as well as atmospheric variability related to the circumglobal teleconnection pattern and the subtropical westerly jet stream, explain more than 70% of the summer precipitation variability in the 21st century.
NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE
(2023)
Review
Environmental Sciences
Antonietta Capotondi, Shayne McGregor, Michael J. McPhaden, Sophie Cravatte, Neil J. Holbrook, Yukiko Imada, Sara C. Sanchez, Janet Sprintall, Malte F. Stuecker, Caroline C. Ummenhofer, Mathias Zeller, Riccardo Farneti, Giorgio Graffino, Shijian Hu, Kristopher B. Karnauskas, Yu Kosaka, Fred Kucharski, Michael Mayer, Bo Qiu, Agus Santoso, Andrea S. Taschetto, Fan Wang, Xuebin Zhang, Ryan M. Holmes, Jing-Jia Luo, Nicola Maher, Cristian Martinez-Villalobos, Gerald A. Meehl, Rajashree Naha, Niklas Schneider, Samantha Stevenson, Arnold Sullivan, Peter van Rensch, Tongtong Xu
Summary: In this Review, the mechanisms and characteristics of tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV) are synthesized, including oceanic processes and atmospheric processes. Oceanic processes involve Rossby waves, upper-ocean overturning circulation, and salinity-compensated temperature anomalies, while atmospheric processes involve internal variability and atmospheric teleconnections. The tropical adjustment mechanism is likely the dominant mechanism, but the origin and spectral characteristics of TPDV-related winds remain uncertain.
NATURE REVIEWS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Koffi Worou, Hugues Goosse, Thierry Fichefet, Fred Kucharski
Summary: The Guinea Coast is influenced by the sea surface temperature variability in the eastern equatorial Atlantic, and the models suggest a possible weakening of the Atlantic Nino variability in the future, which may lead to a reduction in rainfall on the Guinea Coast.
EARTH SYSTEM DYNAMICS
(2022)