Towards the probabilistic Earth-system simulator: a vision for the future of climate and weather prediction

A CERN for climate change

(2015) Tim Palmer   PHYSICS WORLD

Systematic Model Error: The Impact of Increased Horizontal Resolution versus Improved Stochastic and Deterministic Parameterizations

(2012) J. Berner et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Diagnosing the causes of bias in climate models – why is it so hard?

(2011) T. N. Palmer et al.   GEOPHYSICAL AND ASTROPHYSICAL FLUID DYNAMICS

Accuracy of climate change predictions using high resolution simulations as surrogates of truth

(2011) Mio Matsueda et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Assessment of representations of model uncertainty in monthly and seasonal forecast ensembles

(2011) Antje Weisheimer et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Climate model genealogy

(2011) D. Masson et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

High-Resolution Global Climate Simulations with the ECMWF Model in Project Athena: Experimental Design, Model Climate, and Seasonal Forecast Skill

(2011) T. Jung et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Decadal climate prediction with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts coupled forecast system: Impact of ocean observations

(2011) F. J. Doblas-Reyes et al.   JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH

Large-Scale Dynamical Response to Subgrid-Scale Organization Provided by Cellular Automata

(2011) Lisa Bengtsson et al.   JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Using the Stochastic Multicloud Model to Improve Tropical Convective Parameterization: A Paradigm Example

(2011) Yevgeniy Frenkel et al.   JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Uncertainty in weather and climate prediction

(2011) J. Slingo et al.   PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES

Extended-Range Probabilistic Forecasts of Ganges and Brahmaputra Floods in Bangladesh

(2010) Peter J. Webster et al.   BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

Toward a New Generation of World Climate Research and Computing Facilities

(2010) J. Shukla et al.   BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

Accelerating Progress in Global Atmospheric Model Development through Improved Parameterizations

(2010) Christian Jakob   BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

EC-Earth

(2010) Wilco Hazeleger et al.   BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

On the Effective Number of Climate Models

(2010) Christopher Pennell et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

ENSEMBLES: A new multi-model ensemble for seasonal-to-annual predictions—Skill and progress beyond DEMETER in forecasting tropical Pacific SSTs

(2009) A. Weisheimer et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Toward Seamless Prediction: Calibration of Climate Change Projections Using Seasonal Forecasts

(2008) T. N. Palmer et al.   BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

A quantitative performance assessment of cloud regimes in climate models

(2008) K. D. Williams et al.   CLIMATE DYNAMICS

A stochastic convective approach to account for model uncertainty due to unresolved humidity variability

(2008) A. M. Tompkins et al.   JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH

A Stochastic Parameterization for Deep Convection Based on Equilibrium Statistics

(2008) R. S. Plant et al.   JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

A New Rossby Wave–Breaking Interpretation of the North Atlantic Oscillation

(2008) Tim Woollings et al.   JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

A Generalization of Lorenz’s Model for the Predictability of Flows with Many Scales of Motion

(2008) R. Rotunno et al.   JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

A Spectral Stochastic Kinetic Energy Backscatter Scheme and Its Impact on Flow-Dependent Predictability in the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System

(2008) J. Berner et al.   JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES