Explaining regional variability in copepod recruitment: Implications for a changing climate

Characterizing environmental effects on copepod production and their ecological roles is complicated by multiple physical (e.g. temperature) and biological (e.g. food, predation) factors controlling multiple aspects of copepod physiology and demography. For example, data for two regions in eastern Canada (St. John's, Newfoundland and Halifax, Nova Scotia) indicate that subtle differences in environmental conditions lead to significant differences in seasonal copepod (Calanus finmarchicus) recruitment timing and magnitude. Here, we quantify how environmental variability influences C. finmarchicus physiology and demography leading to observed regional and seasonal variations in abundance off St. John's and Halifax. We apply a stochastic individual-based model (IBM) for copepod population dynamics to simulate the seasonal variation in C finmarchicus abundance of egg through copepodite 1(C1) stages at the two sites using year-specific local forcing from multi-year data. The model includes individual variability in development, egg production and mortality rates with resulting seasonal C1 abundance averaged among years and compared to analogous observations. We find temperature has a dominant effect on both development and egg production rates while egg recruitment is affected by temperature and female abundance at both sites. We show that mortality rate characterization has a strong influence on modeled abundances, and site-specific environmentally dependent mortality rates are necessary to produce results consistent with observations (temperature vs. food vs. cannibalism via females). Results indicate that prediction of climate change effects on copepod abundance and their ecological roles requires consideration of biological (e.g. chlorophyll a, female abundance) as well as physical (e.g. temperature) factors. In particular, estimates of abundances during the onset of C1 recruitment (i.e. their arrival on the larval fish prey field) are improved by 67-94% when the influence of biological factors on mortality rates are considered. (C) 2010 Published by Elsevier Ltd.