Effect of start age of breast cancer screening mammography on the risk of false-positive results

Objective. To estimate the false-positive (FP) risk according to the start age of mammography screening (45-46 or 50-51 years). Method. Data from eight regions of the Spanish breast cancer screening programme from 1990 to 2006 were included (1,565,364 women). Discrete time-hazard models were used to ascertain the effect of age and time-related, programme-related and personal variables on FP leading to any further procedure and to invasive procedures (FPI). In a subset we estimated the differential FP risk of starting screening at 45-46 years (175.656 women) or 50-51 (251,275). Results. A start age of 45-46 versus 50-51 years increased both FP (OR = 1.20: 95%Cl: 1.13-1.26) and FPI risks (OR = 1.43 (95%Cl: 1.18-1.73). Other factors increasing FP risk were premenopausal status (FP OR = 1.26: 95%Cl: 1.23-1.29 and FPI OR = 1.22; 95%Cl: 1.13-1.31), prior invasive procedures (FP OR = 1.52; 95%Cl: 1.47-1.57 and FPI (OR = 2.08; 95%Cl: 1.89-2.28) and family history (FP OR = 1.16: 95% Cl: 1.12-1.20 and FPI OR = 1.26; 95%Cl: 1.13-1.41). FP risk was increased by double reading (OR= 1.36: 95% Cl: 1.23-1.51) and FPI risk by double views (OR = 1.34; 95%Cl: 1.18-1.52). Both the cumulative FP and FPI risks were higher in women commencing screening at 45-46 years versus 50-51 years (33.30% versus 20.39% and 2.68% versus 1.76%). Conclusions. Starting screening earlier increases the cumulative risk of FP and FPI. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.