期刊
PLOS ONE
卷 12, 期 6, 页码 -出版社
PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0179057
关键词
-
资金
- National Natural Science Foundation of China [41571509]
- Ministry of Science and Technology of China [2016YFC1201300]
Terror events can cause profound consequences for the whole society. Finding out the regularity of terrorist attacks has important meaning for the global counter-terrorism strategy. In the present study, we demonstrate a novel method using relatively popular and robust machine learning methods to simulate the risk of terrorist attacks at a global scale based on multiple resources, long time series and globally distributed datasets. Historical data from 1970 to 2015 was adopted to train and evaluate machine learning models. The model performed fairly well in predicting the places where terror events might occur in 2015, with a success rate of 96.6%. Moreover, it is noteworthy that the model with optimized tuning parameter values successfully predicted 2,037 terrorism event locations where a terrorist attack had never happened before.
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