Article
Mathematics, Applied
Diogo H. Silva, Celia Anteneodo, Silvio C. Ferreira
Summary: This study investigates how the perception of preventive behavior affects epidemic outbreaks. The results show that local awareness can raise the epidemic threshold, delay the peak of prevalence, and reduce the outbreak size. However, network heterogeneity reduces the efficacy of local awareness mechanisms.
COMMUNICATIONS IN NONLINEAR SCIENCE AND NUMERICAL SIMULATION
(2023)
Article
Physics, Fluids & Plasmas
Bastian Prasse, Massimo A. Achterberg, Piet Van Mieghem
Summary: This study considers susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) and susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) epidemic models on networks. By defining an exponential growth metric, the predictability of the epidemic is quantified. The results show that accurate long-term predictions of epidemics are only possible after the peak rate of new infections, providing an important theoretical basis for understanding the predictability of epidemics.
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Kottakkaran Sooppy Nisar, Fizza Sahar, Muhammad Asif Zahoor Raja, Muhammad Shoaib
Summary: This research introduces a new fractional model (ICIEI-FCO) to analyze the influence of consciousness initiatives on epidemic incidences. An artificial neural network-based fractional model (ANN-FM) is used to estimate the effectiveness of epidemic outbreak awareness initiatives. The proposed model is examined for reliability, resolution, durability, and robustness using the suggested ANN-BLM approach.
JOURNAL OF KING SAUD UNIVERSITY SCIENCE
(2023)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Juan Armando Torres Munguia, Florina Cristina Badarau, Luis Rodrigo Diaz Pavez, Inmaculada Martinez-Zarzoso, Konstantin M. Wacker
Summary: This paper presents a new dataset of infectious disease outbreaks, including information on 70 infectious diseases and 2227 public health events that occurred in 233 countries and territories from January 1996 to March 2022. The spatial analysis of disease outbreaks can help policymakers identify regions at greatest risk and develop strategies to contain future outbreaks.
Article
Economics
Yuwei Zhang, Zhenping Li, Yuwei Zhao
Summary: The outbreak of COVID-19 emphasizes the importance of having sufficient medical supplies stockpiled in advance. However, maintaining adequate reserves also comes with significant inventory costs. This paper proposes a multi-mitigation strategy by introducing two types of suppliers, reserving suppliers and manufacturing suppliers, to ensure uninterrupted supply for hospitals and achieve cost savings.
SOCIO-ECONOMIC PLANNING SCIENCES
(2023)
Article
Physics, Multidisciplinary
Johannes Zierenberg, F. Paul Spitzner, Jonas Dehning, Viola Priesemann, Martin Weigel, Michael Wilczek
Summary: The spread of contagious diseases depends on the timing of contact between infected individuals and susceptible ones. This study explores how the timing of contacts interacts with the latent and infectious stages of the disease, and finds that it destabilizes epidemic outbreaks and modulates the basic reproduction number R (0).
NEW JOURNAL OF PHYSICS
(2023)
Article
Mathematics, Applied
Manli Jin, Yuguo Lin
Summary: This paper investigates a SEIR epidemic model perturbed by white noises and establishes the threshold for disease occurrence. When lambda < 0, the disease exponentially becomes extinct; when lambda > 0, the transition probabilities of the solution converge to the invariant measure with a polynomial convergence speed of any degree.
APPLIED MATHEMATICS LETTERS
(2021)
Article
Mathematics, Applied
Stefania Ottaviano, Stefano Bonaccorsi
Summary: We study the spread of an SIRS-type epidemic with vaccination on network by investigating the mean epidemic lifetime and providing a sufficient condition for fast extinction in the model. Using a first-order mean-field approximation and equitable partition concept, we explore the stability properties of the exact model and prove that the endemic equilibrium can be computed using a lower-dimensional dynamical system in graphs with equitable partition. Furthermore, we examine the domain of attraction of the endemic equilibrium in the special case of regular graphs.
MATHEMATICAL METHODS IN THE APPLIED SCIENCES
(2021)
Article
Mathematics, Applied
Hongjie Fan, Kai Wang, Yanling Zhu
Summary: In this paper, the SEQIR epidemic model with governmental measures is investigated, including vaccine subsidy, complete or semi-lockdown, etc. The globally asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium of the deterministic model is obtained. The stochastic model is proposed and the existence and uniqueness of the positive solution to it is proven. Conditions for disease extinction are obtained, showing that large noise can lead to exponential disease eradication. Numerical simulations are conducted to verify the results.
APPLIED MATHEMATICS LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Economics
Zhen Yu, Yuankun Li, Xubin Xie
Summary: The study found that pandemics have a significant long-term negative impact on the export of affected countries, taking at least five years to recover to pre-pandemic levels. The prejudice generated by pandemics has long-lasting adverse effects on exports, with a more pronounced negative impact on trading partners with greater linguistic and cultural differences, weaker political ties, and larger income gaps.
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND POLICY
(2021)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Tassallah Abdullahi, Geoff Nitschke, Neville Sweijd
Summary: Climate change is expected to worsen diarrhoea outbreaks in developing countries, particularly in Sub-Saharan countries like South Africa. Through machine learning methods, this study modeled the impact of climate change on diarrhoea outbreaks in South Africa and found that deep learning techniques outperformed traditional methods, with data augmentation and parameter tuning improving prediction accuracy and highlighting the importance of climate variables such as precipitation, humidity, evaporation, and temperature.
Article
Construction & Building Technology
Yan Huang, Zongzhi Li, Shengrui Zhang, Bei Zhou, Lei Zhang
Summary: This study introduces a bi-level model to identify the optimal headway-based dispatching strategy for bus transit under epidemic outbreaks. Heuristic algorithms are developed to execute the proposed models. Computational experiments are conducted for urban and CBD bus transit networks. The optimal headway-based strategy reduces travel cost, but social distancing rules are more effective for higher infection rates, and vaccination coverage mitigates infection risks.
SUSTAINABLE CITIES AND SOCIETY
(2023)
Article
Mathematics, Applied
Tongqian Zhang, Chengxi Dong, Xinzeng Wang
Summary: In this paper, a new stochastic SIRVI epidemic model considering weak immunity generated after vaccination is proposed and analyzed. The dynamics of the model under white noise disturbance is studied. It is proven that the disease will eventually disappear if R-1(s) < 1, and will persist if R-2(s) > 1. Furthermore, it is found that the presence of stochastic environmental disturbance can affect the transmission of infectious diseases, and relatively high noise intensity can suppress disease spread under certain conditions.
APPLIED MATHEMATICS LETTERS
(2024)
Article
Infectious Diseases
Lu Gao, Xiangdong Sun, Honglin Yang, Quangang Xu, Juan Li, Jingli Kang, Ping Liu, Yi Zhang, Youming Wang, Baoxu Huang
Summary: The study conducted a preliminary analysis of African swine fever outbreaks in China, finding significantly higher outbreak rates in small farms compared to medium and large farms. Swill feeding and mechanical dissemination were identified as major contributing factors. The response speed has been gradually increasing. Recommendations include improving biosecurity levels and enhancing supervision in breeding, transportation, and slaughter practices.
TRANSBOUNDARY AND EMERGING DISEASES
(2021)
Article
Mathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications
Anwarud Din, Yongjin Li, Abdullahi Yusuf
Summary: This study investigates the impact of environmental factors such as humidity and temperature on the dynamics of hepatitis B virus (HBV) transmission through stochastic modeling. It reveals that white noise and transmission coefficient delay play key roles in controlling infection, while delay factor contributes to periodic occurrence and re-infection of the disease. Results suggest that relatively large noise can lead to HBV extinction.
CHAOS SOLITONS & FRACTALS
(2021)
Review
Physics, Multidisciplinary
Marko Jusup, Petter Holme, Kiyoshi Kanazawa, Misako Takayasu, Ivan Romic, Zhen Wang, Suncana Gecek, Tomislav Lipic, Boris Podobnik, Lin Wang, Wei Luo, Tin Klanjscek, Jingfang Fan, Stefano Boccaletti, Matjaz Perc
Summary: In recent years, physics methods have been widely used to study societal phenomena. Social physics examines topics at the core of modern human societies and explores potential threats to society. The future of this field looks promising, with physicists playing an important role in studying social phenomena.
PHYSICS REPORTS-REVIEW SECTION OF PHYSICS LETTERS
(2022)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Boris Podobnik, Marko Jusup, Dean Korosak, Petter Holme, Tomislav Lipic
Summary: This article empirically documents a tipping point in the relationship between democratic norms and corruption suppression, and demonstrates how such a tipping point emerges from a micro-scale mechanistic model. The research suggests that under weak democratic norms, corruption is difficult to suppress, while strong democratic norms can effectively suppress corruption.
PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES
(2022)
Article
Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
Fan Fang, Tong Wang, Suoyi Tan, Saran Chen, Tao Zhou, Wei Zhang, Qiang Guo, Jianguo Liu, Petter Holme, Xin Lu
Summary: The study found that during the COVID-19 pandemic, social media networks experienced an increase in size and frequency of interactions. The number of unique recipients, average degree, and transitivity also increased during the severe stage of the outbreak. The similarity of topics discussed on Weibo increased during the local peak of the epidemic, and the number of communities focused on COVID-19 increased significantly. Furthermore, there was a statistically significant rebound effect in the emotional content of users' posts.
FRONTIERS IN PUBLIC HEALTH
(2022)
Article
Engineering, Multidisciplinary
Marcin Waniek, Petter Holme, Talal Rahwan
Summary: Social network analysis tools can infer various attributes by examining connections. Previous studies on hiding personal importance in static networks have overlooked the more general case of temporal networks. This research investigates the concealment of personal importance in temporal networks with changing edges. The study shows that finding the optimal hiding strategy is usually computationally infeasible, but manipulating contacts can increase privacy. Temporal networks provide more strategies for manipulation compared to static networks, making hiding easier.
IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON NETWORK SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING
(2022)
Article
Physics, Multidisciplinary
Francesco Picciolo, Franco Ruzzenenti, Petter Holme, Rossana Mastrandrea
Summary: Network theory has proven to be a useful paradigm for understanding the organization and functioning of complex systems in the real world. This study proposes a novel methodology for analyzing weighted motifs and applies it to various real networks. The identified similarities enable the classification of systems based on specific configurations associated with functioning mechanisms.
NEW JOURNAL OF PHYSICS
(2022)
Editorial Material
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Petter Holme
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
(2022)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Marcin Waniek, Petter Holme, Manuel Cebrian, Talal Rahwan
Summary: Influence through social networks is fundamental, but identifying the diffusion source is challenging as sources can strategically modify network structure. Efforts should focus on exposing concealed ties rather than planted entities to improve detection.
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Zhizheng Wang, Xiao Fan Liu, Zhanwei Du, Lin Wang, Ye Wu, Petter Holme, Michael Lachmann, Hongfei Lin, Zoie S. Y. Wong, Xiao-Ke Xu, Yuanyuan Sun
Summary: This paper proposes a computational framework that can automatically extract epidemiological information from open-access COVID-19 case reports, and provides an open-access online platform to implement the algorithm.
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Marcin Waniek, Petter Holme, Katayoun Farrahi, Remi Emonet, Manuel Cebrian, Talal Rahwan
Summary: This study shows that increasing the budget for contact tracing improves the identification of infected individuals, but has diminishing returns in terms of source detection. Disease variants with higher infectivity make it easier to find the source, but harder to identify infected individuals. There is a trade-off between using contact tracing to identify patient zero or detect infected individuals.
SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
(2022)
Article
Psychology, Biological
Fengyuan Liu, Petter Holme, Matteo Chiesa, Bedoor AlShebli, Talal Rahwan
Summary: Using algorithmic tools, researchers found pervasive gender inequalities among academic editors, with only 8% of editors-in-chief being women. Men editors were more likely to self-publish in the journal they edit. Career length explains the gender gap among editors, but not editors-in-chief.
NATURE HUMAN BEHAVIOUR
(2023)
Article
Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
Zhanwei Du, Qi Tan, Yuan Bai, Lin Wang, Benjamin J. Cowling, Petter Holme
Summary: The ease of COVID-19 non-pharmacological interventions and the increased susceptibility during the past COVID-19 pandemic may lead to a severe outbreak of influenza in the winter of 2022 and future seasons. The availability of Electronic Health Records (EHR) data in public health systems offers new opportunities to monitor individuals and mitigate outbreaks.
Article
Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
Yuan Bai, Mingda Xu, Caifen Liu, Mingwang Shen, Lin Wang, Linwei Tian, Suoyi Tan, Lei Zhang, Petter Holme, Xin Lu, Eric H. Y. Lau, Benjamin J. Cowling, Zhanwei Du
Summary: This study estimates the importation and exportation risks between Chinese cities using a stochastic metapopulation model based on the epidemic characteristics of COVID-19. It reveals the existence of high exportation risks in certain regions, emphasizing the importance of preparedness and control measures for COVID-19.
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Shupeng Gao, Lili Chang, Ivan Romic, Zhen Wang, Marko Jusup, Petter Holme
Summary: This article presents a solution to the problem of controlling Turing patterns in networks, utilizing an analytical framework and numerical algorithm. The authors demonstrate the effectiveness of their method and discuss factors that impact its performance. They also pave the way for multidisciplinary applications of their framework beyond reaction-diffusion models.
JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY INTERFACE
(2022)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Zhanwei Du, Yuan Bai, Lin Wang, Jose L. Herrera-Diestra, Zhilu Yuan, Renzhong Guo, Benjamin J. Cowling, Lauren A. Meyers, Petter Holme
Summary: This article proposes a data-driven COVID-19 surveillance strategy using Electronic Health Record (EHR) data to identify vulnerable individuals who are at high risk of early infection. The simulations demonstrate that this strategy performs as well as the most-connected strategy and can detect early warning signals and peak timings earlier than random acquaintance surveillance.
Article
Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods
Luis E. C. Rocha, Petter Holme, Claudio D. G. Linhares
Summary: This study examines the international migration patterns of sex-workers using network methods. The results reveal that the migration network of sex-workers has different structural patterns compared to the general population. Europe is divided into various network communities with specific connections to non-European countries. Moreover, there are asymmetrical relations between countries, with some predominantly offering services while others attract workers. The financial gains of migration are related to the GDP per capita of the country of origin.
JOURNAL OF COMPUTATIONAL SOCIAL SCIENCE
(2022)
