Effects of Management Intervention on Post-Disturbance Community Composition: An Experimental Analysis Using Bayesian Hierarchical Models

As human demand for ecosystem products increases, management intervention may become more frequent after environmental disturbances. Evaluations of ecological responses to cumulative effects of management interventions and natural disturbances provide critical decision-support tools for managers who strive to balance environmental conservation and economic development. We conducted an experiment to evaluate the effects of salvage logging on avian community composition in lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) forests affected by beetle outbreaks in Oregon, USA, 1996-1998. Treatments consisted of the removal of lodgepole pine snags only, and live trees were not harvested. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to quantify occupancy dynamics for 27 breeding species, while accounting for variation in the detection process. We examined how magnitude and precision of treatment effects varied when incorporating prior information from a separate intervention study that occurred in a similar ecological system. Regardless of which prior we evaluated, we found no evidence that the harvest treatment had a negative impact on species richness, with an estimated average of 0.2-2.2 more species in harvested stands than unharvested stands. Estimated average similarity between control and treatment stands ranged from 0.82-0.87 (1 indicating complete similarity between a pair of stands) and suggested that treatment stands did not contain novel assemblies of species responding to the harvesting prescription. Estimated treatment effects were positive for twenty-four (90%) of the species, although the credible intervals contained 0 in all cases. These results suggest that, unlike most post-fire salvage logging prescriptions, selective harvesting after beetle outbreaks may meet multiple management objectives, including the maintenance of avian community richness comparable to what is found in unharvested stands. Our results provide managers with prescription alternatives to respond to severe beetle outbreaks that continue to occur across extensive portions of the dry forests of western North America.