Article
Green & Sustainable Science & Technology
Jilin Cai, Lili Hao, Qingshan Xu, Keqi Zhang
Summary: A scalable Latin hypercube importance sampling (ELHIS) method is proposed in this paper, which combines importance sampling (IS) and Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) to reduce the computational costs of evaluating power system reliability, and shows good performance on test systems.
SUSTAINABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES AND ASSESSMENTS
(2022)
Article
Engineering, Civil
Mohsen Masoomzadeh, Mohammad Charkhtab Basim, Mohammad Reza Chenaghlou, Hesam Khajehsaeid
Summary: The hysteric behavior of shear links in Eccentric Braced Frames (EBFs) and the uncertainties in their behavioral parameters have been studied in this research. The study investigates the variations in structural responses due to these uncertainties and proposes a practical method using artificial neural networks (ANNs) to predict the responses with lower computational effort. The results show that the web thickness and yielding strength of shear links have significant effects on seismic structural responses.
Article
Immunology
Veronica A. Ferrando, Marcel E. Friedrich, Shrey Gandhi, Alexander Mellmann, Doerthe Masemann, Anmari Christersson, Darisuren Anhlan, Linda Brunotte, Monika Stoll, Timm Harder, Martin Beer, Yvonne Boergeling, Stephan Ludwig
Summary: Influenza A viruses, including the H1N1pdm09 virus, cause recurrent epidemics and occasional pandemics in humans. The reassortment of these viruses in swine and their ability to replicate in human lung tissue suggest a possible zoonotic potential. Reassortment frequently occurs in the PB1, PA, and NA segments, resulting in the generation of reassortants that can reach high titers in swine lung cells.
EMERGING MICROBES & INFECTIONS
(2023)
Review
Virology
Joshua Yi Yeo, Samuel Ken-En Gan
Summary: The H5N8 avian influenza first emerged in South Korea in 2014 and quickly spread worldwide, resulting in the first human infection in Russia during the 2020-2021 outbreak. Despite being clinically asymptomatic and without human-to-human transmission, the World Health Organization emphasized the importance of continued risk assessment in order to prevent potential pandemics. Efforts to understand the mechanisms of species jumping and prevent disastrous outbreaks are becoming increasingly urgent as the virus has the potential to reassort and generate new strains.
Article
Computer Science, Interdisciplinary Applications
Yong Pang, Liangliang Yang, Yitang Wang, Xiaonan Lai, Wei Sun, Xueguan Song
Summary: This research addresses the limitations of Latin hypercube design in constrained design space by developing Latin hypervolume designs with good space-filling and noncollapsing properties. Monte Carlo sampling is introduced to approximate the hypervolume in high-dimensional and irregular design spaces. The experiments demonstrate that the proposed method is considerably better compared to other methods in benchmark numerical examples and engineering modeling scenarios.
ENGINEERING WITH COMPUTERS
(2023)
Article
Soil Science
Adnan Khan, Matt Aitkenhead, Craig R. Stark, M. Ehsan Jorat
Summary: Soil properties are crucial for plant growth, ecosystems, and biota functioning. Digital Soil Mapping (DSM) uses Conditioned Latin Hypercube (CLH) sampling method to map soil properties. A study on Scotland's Finzean Estate determined the optimum sample size and suggested a range of 25-50 CLH samples.
Article
Chemistry, Multidisciplinary
Qizhuan Shao, Shuangquan Liu, Yigong Xie, Xinchun Zhu, Yilin Zhang, Junzhou Wang, Junjie Tang
Summary: In order to accurately analyze the load supply capability of power systems with high penetration of renewable energy generation, this paper proposes a probabilistic available load supply capability (ALSC) forecasting method. Firstly, optimal input features are selected using the maximal information coefficient (MIC) and a stacking ensemble learning model is applied for prediction. Secondly, forecasting distributions of wind power, photovoltaic power, and load are calculated using forecasting errors and the error statistics method. Finally, probabilistic ALSC is calculated using Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) and repeated power flow (RPF) by introducing multiple slack buses for power imbalance allocations. Case studies on the modified IEEE 39-bus system validate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed methods.
APPLIED SCIENCES-BASEL
(2023)
Article
Engineering, Industrial
Shinyoung Kwag, Eujeong Choi, Seunghyun Eem, Jeong-Gon Ha, Daegi Hahm
Summary: A new efficient seismic probabilistic safety assessment method was developed by improving the existing DQFM method, reducing sample size and improving accuracy of results. Through the ADSI method, the proposed method achieved three times efficiency improvement compared to the existing DQFM method.
RELIABILITY ENGINEERING & SYSTEM SAFETY
(2021)
Article
Engineering, Civil
Luis C. M. da Silva, Gabriele Milani, Paulo B. Lourenco
Summary: This paper presents a probabilistic-based numerical strategy for assessing the seismic fragility of masonry structures using non-linear time-history analysis. The strategy couples a discrete macro-element model at a structural-scale with a homogenization model at a meso-scale to ensure a probabilistic nature. The approach is computationally efficient and effective in evaluating the seismic response of masonry structures.
Article
Engineering, Chemical
Prapatsorn Borisut, Aroonsri Nuchitprasittichai, Jie Zhang, Xiao Feng, Minbo Yang
Summary: In this study, an adaptive Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) method was developed to optimize the required number of samples for surrogate-based optimization. The method generates additional sample points from areas with the highest output deviations. The results demonstrate that this approach requires fewer sample points than random sampling for achieving optimal solutions of similar quality in various chemical processes.
Article
Polymer Science
Yu Xie, Jianxiong Chen, Han Zhao, Feng Huang
Summary: Melt electrospinning writing (MEW) is a powerful technique for direct-writing complex and multiscaled structures, particularly in the biomedical field. This paper introduces the Kriging model to study the relationship between fiber diameter and various processing parameters, and demonstrates that the Kriging model outperforms the response surface model in terms of prediction accuracy. Additionally, implementing the Kriging model reduces fabrication time and material waste.
JOURNAL OF APPLIED POLYMER SCIENCE
(2022)
Article
Biodiversity Conservation
Wencong Yue, Yanzhong Yao, Meirong Su, Qiangqiang Rong, Chao Xu
Summary: A hybrid approach was used to identify future heterogeneity of urban ecosystem health (UEH) in cities. Multiple driving factors of UEH scores were considered, and the contribution of main indicators was determined. A case study in Dongguan City of China revealed that UEH scores would increase in the future, influenced by socio-economic development and ecological function. Heterogeneity of UEHRs and the synergy of land-use and economic growth were important factors affecting spatial variations of UEH scores.
ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS
(2023)
Article
Chemistry, Analytical
Yanan Hao, Vin Cent Tai, Yong Chai Tan
Summary: This research aims to optimize the camera calibration process by identifying the optimal distance and angle for capturing checkered board images. The results show that the distance factor has the most influence on the reprojection error, while the orientation factors also play a significant role. Three calibration methods were devised, resulting in a reduction of the reprojection error by 25% to 34%.
Article
Engineering, Mechanical
Luis Philipe Ribeiro Almeida, Eduardo Toledo de Lima Junior, Joao Carlos Cordeiro Barbirato
Summary: This paper investigates the use of the boundary element method (BEM) for plane problems in probabilistic fracture mechanics. BEM is an interesting technique that allows for crack propagation analysis, accurately modeling stress concentration in singular regions, and avoiding remeshing issues. The alternative BEM formulation used in this study employs a set of self-equilibrated forces, called dipole, to describe the cohesive zone. The nonlinear solution is accelerated using the tangent operator. The probabilistic assessment of crack propagation analysis is conducted in two stages: simulation-based estimation of random values for cohesive parameters and elastic modulus, followed by evaluating their influence on the structural response. The statistical correlation between random variables is taken into account. BEM models are coupled with structural reliability routines to compute failure probabilities, as well as random force-displacement and crack path curves.
JOURNAL OF THE BRAZILIAN SOCIETY OF MECHANICAL SCIENCES AND ENGINEERING
(2022)
Article
Thermodynamics
Emre Bulut, Emre Isa Albak, Gokhan Sevilgen, Ferruh Ozturk
Summary: This research investigates the effects of mass flow rate and number of channels on multi-channel serpentine cooling plates, using LHS and GRA to optimize design parameters for minimizing pressure drop, maximum temperature, and maximizing convective heat transfer coefficient. The optimized design showed a significant decrease in pressure drop, a slight decrease in convective heat transfer coefficient, and a slight decrease in maximum temperature compared to the base design, demonstrating the effectiveness of the proposed approach for designing better cooling plates.
CASE STUDIES IN THERMAL ENGINEERING
(2021)
Article
Pediatrics
Paul A. Gastanaduy, Sebastian Funk, Benjamin A. Lopman, Paul A. Rota, Manoj Gambhir, Bryan Grenfell, Prabasaj Paul
Letter
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Caroline O. Buckee, Satchit Balsari, Jennifer Chan, Merce Crosas, Francesca Dominici, Urs Gasser, Yonatan H. Grad, Bryan Grenfell, M. Elizabeth Halloran, Moritz U. G. Kraemer, Marc Lipsitch, C. Jessica E. Metcalf, Lauren Ancel Meyers, T. Alex Perkins, Mauricio Santillana, Samuel V. Scarpino, Cecile Viboud, Amy Wesolowski, Andrew Schroeder
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Huaiyu Tian, Yonghong Liu, Yidan Li, Chieh-Hsi Wu, Bin Chen, Moritz U. G. Kraemer, Bingying Li, Jun Cai, Bo Xu, Qiqi Yang, Ben Wang, Peng Yang, Yujun Cui, Yimeng Song, Pai Zheng, Quanyi Wang, Ottar N. Bjornstad, Ruifu Yang, Bryan T. Grenfell, Oliver G. Pybus, Christopher Dye
Editorial Material
Biochemistry & Molecular Biology
C. J. E. Metcalf, A. Wesolowski, A. K. Winter, J. Lessler, S. Cauchemez, W. J. Moss, A. R. McLean, B. T. Grenfell
TRENDS IN MICROBIOLOGY
(2020)
Article
Biochemistry & Molecular Biology
Benjamin L. Rice, Akshaya Annapragada, Rachel E. Baker, Marjolein Bruijning, Winfred Dotse-Gborgbortsi, Keitly Mensah, Ian F. Miller, Nkengafac Villyen Motaze, Antso Raherinandrasana, Malavika Rajeev, Julio Rakotonirina, Tanjona Ramiadantsoa, Fidisoa Rasambainarivo, Weiyu Yu, Bryan T. Grenfell, Andrew J. Tatem, C. Jessica E. Metcalf
Summary: The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has shown low burdens in sub-Saharan Africa compared to other regions, potentially influenced by factors such as climate and population demographics. Caution is needed when interpreting analyses that aggregate data from low- and middle-income settings. Heterogeneity in connectivity across sub-Saharan Africa may contribute to variance in the pace of viral spread.
Article
Cell Biology
Sang Woo Park, Margarita Pons-Salort, Kevin Messacar, Camille Cook, Lindsay Meyers, Jeremy Farrar, Bryan T. Grenfell
Summary: Acute flaccid myelitis (AFM) has emerged in the United States as a rare but serious neurological condition since 2012, with Enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) considered a main causative agent. Strong spatiotemporal association between EV-D68 and AFM was demonstrated, and the impact of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic likely reduced the sizes of EV-D68 and AFM outbreaks in 2020.
SCIENCE TRANSLATIONAL MEDICINE
(2021)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Rachel E. Baker, Wenchang Yang, Gabriel A. Vecchi, C. Jessica E. Metcalf, Bryan T. Grenfell
Summary: The role of climate in the COVID-19 pandemic has been limited due to high susceptibility, but future disease trajectories are dependent on both population susceptibility and the efficacy of non-pharmaceutical interventions. In the upcoming winter months, stricter NPIs may be necessary to minimize outbreak risk.
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
(2021)
Correction
Infectious Diseases
Maile T. Phillips, Katharine A. Owers, Bryan T. Grenfell, Virginia E. Pitzer
PLOS NEGLECTED TROPICAL DISEASES
(2021)
Article
Immunology
Siyang Xia, Cricket C. Gullickson, C. Jessica E. Metcalf, Bryan T. Grenfell, Michael J. Mina
Summary: Measles virus infection may increase the mortality rates of other childhood infectious diseases through immunomodulation. This study found a significant positive association between measles and nonmeasles infectious disease mortality rates in Brazil.
JOURNAL OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES
(2022)
Editorial Material
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Chadi M. Saad-Roy, C. Jessica E. Metcalf, Bryan T. Grenfell
Summary: Understanding viral evolution requires a combination of evolutionary biology and immuno-epidemiology.
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Luojun Yang, Sara M. Constantino, Bryan T. Grenfell, Elke U. Weber, Simon A. Levin, Vitor V. Vasconcelos
Summary: Behavioral responses play a crucial role in the dynamics of epidemics, including the adoption of mask wearing during the COVID-19 pandemic. This study explores the factors influencing mask adoption, such as social norms, perceived risk of infection, and formal mandates. The findings highlight the complex social dynamics involved and the importance of sociocultural factors and local policies in explaining cross-country variation in mask adoption speed and breadth.
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
(2022)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Rachel E. Baker, Chadi M. Saad-Roy, Sang Woo Park, Jeremy Farrar, C. Jessica E. Metcalf, Bryan T. Grenfell
Summary: COVID-19 nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as mask wearing, have been proven to effectively reduce the transmission of endemic infections. However, the implementation of NPIs in the long term may lead to the return of epidemics. The magnitude of these return epidemics depends on the infectivity of the pathogens. Therefore, managing the susceptible population remains an important long-term goal.
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
(2022)
Article
Biochemical Research Methods
David J. J. Haw, Matthew Biggerstaff, Pragati Prasad, Joseph Walker, Bryan Grenfell, Nimalan Arinaminpathy
Summary: Influenza pandemics often occur in multiple waves, with an initial wave followed by a resurgence accompanied by the annual flu season. This study examines whether data from the initial wave can be used to inform the need for non-pharmaceutical measures in subsequent waves. By analyzing data from the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in 10 states in the USA, the researchers developed a mathematical model to predict hospitalizations during the fall wave based on the spring wave. The model showed reasonable agreement with the actual data, suggesting that preemptive measures such as delaying school openings can be determined using this approach.
PLOS COMPUTATIONAL BIOLOGY
(2023)
Article
Biology
Wha-Eum Lee, Sang Woo Park, Daniel M. Weinberger, Donald Olson, Lone Simonsen, Bryan T. Grenfell, Cecile Viboud
Summary: Excess mortality studies provide important information on the health burden of pandemics and other large-scale events. This study separates the direct impact of SARS-CoV-2 infection on mortality from the indirect consequences of the pandemic in the United States using time series approaches. The results indicate that the largest consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic are due to the direct impact of SARS-CoV-2 infections, but the secondary impacts dominate among younger age groups and in mortality from external causes.
Article
Immunology
Hannah Clapham, James Hay, Isobel Routledge, Saki Takahashi, Marc Choisy, Derek Cummings, Bryan Grenfell, C. Jessica E. Metcalf, Michael Mina, Isabel Rodriguez-Barraquer, Henrik Salje, Clarence C. Tam
EMERGING INFECTIOUS DISEASES
(2020)