How important are climate-induced changes in host availability for population processes in an obligate brood parasite, the European cuckoo?

In recent years, populations of long-distance migrant birds have declined markedly. Resource availability, both on breeding and wintering grounds, is likely to be important particularly since changing climates are affecting the timing and synchrony of such resources. We use novel analytical methods to examine whether large-scale population declines in the brood-parasite common cuckoo Cuculus canorus are the result of changes in the abundance or timing of breeding of its host species. We find that, due to climate-induced changes in the timing of breeding, availability of dunnock Prunella modularis nests has decreased, but that availability of reed warbler Acrocephalus scirpaceus has increased. Although there is no evidence that the timing of breeding of cuckoo has changed, these changes are likely to have had only a minimal impact on its population trend, but may explain an increase in the rate of parasitism of reed warbler nests in recent decades.