Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Edward Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, Lettie A. Roach, Aaron Donohoe, Qinghua Ding
Summary: Despite a slight increase in Antarctic sea ice extent in recent years, there is a negative trend under the influence of global warming. The use of an Earth system model shows that both wind patterns and Southern Ocean sea surface temperatures play a role in Antarctic sea ice trends and variability, and nudging these factors can better simulate observational data.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Juan Dou, Renhe Zhang
Summary: The relationship between the variability of Antarctic sea ice concentration and sea surface temperature in the southern Indian Ocean is explored in this study. It is found that the sea ice concentration in certain areas of the southern Indian Ocean is significantly related to the sea surface temperature anomalies in the same region during spring. This relationship is independent of other climate factors and is driven by the warm and cold anomalies in the sea surface temperatures. The anomalies induce large-scale circulations and ultimately lead to changes in the sea ice concentration.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Kazuya Kusahara
Summary: Recent observations have shown changes in the Antarctic sea ice and ice shelf over the years. Analysis from an ocean-sea ice-ice shelf model reveals a clear anti-correlation between Antarctic sea ice extent and ice shelf basal melting, indicating that the summer sea ice extent can act as a proxy for predicting Antarctic coastal water masses and ice shelf melting.
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Kazuya Kusahara, Hiroaki Tatebe, Tomohiro Hajima, Fuyuki Saito, Michio Kawamiya
Summary: Future atmospheric warming can result in enhanced basal melting of Antarctic ice shelves, caused by a combination of warm deep water intrusions and warm surface water formation. This melting will lead to irreversible changes in the Antarctic ice shelves and Southern Ocean climate.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Peisong Zheng, Joel B. Pedro, Markus Jochum, Sune O. Rasmussen, Zhongping Lai
Summary: The study analyzed 67,000 years of climate data from Antarctic ice cores to understand the relationship between Greenland and Antarctic temperature variations, as well as mechanisms behind millennial-scale atmospheric CO2 concentration changes. Results show that Antarctic warming rates decrease significantly as the climate cools during glacial periods, while the rate of atmospheric CO2 rise remains relatively stable. This challenges the traditional view that a single mechanism based on the Southern Ocean dominates glacial variability in Antarctic temperature and atmospheric CO2 levels.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2021)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Jonathan King, Kevin J. Anchukaitis, Kathryn Allen, Tessa Vance, Amy Hessl
Summary: This study uses data assimilation to reconstruct the Southern Annular Mode over the last 2000 years and finds that its history reflects natural climate variability, except for the most-recent positive trend. The Southern Annular Mode is the leading mode of atmospheric variability in the extratropical Southern Hemisphere and has wide-ranging effects on ecosystems and societies. The study also suggests that the modern positive trend of the Southern Annular Mode is likely a response to anthropogenic climate change.
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
(2023)
Article
Geography, Physical
Hao Luo, Qinghua Yang, Longjiang Mu, Xiangshan Tian-Kunze, Lars Nerger, Matthew Mazloff, Lars Kaleschke, Dake Chen
Summary: The ensemble-based Data Assimilation System for the Southern Ocean (DASSO) has been developed to improve Antarctic sea-ice simulations and estimations. Results demonstrate the effectiveness of assimilating sea-ice observations in reconstructing the state of Antarctic sea ice, highlighting the importance of more reasonable error estimation.
JOURNAL OF GLACIOLOGY
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Xiaoping Pang, Yizhuo Chen, Qing Ji, Guoyuan Li, Lijian Shi, Musheng Lan, Zeyu Liang
Summary: An improved algorithm using ICESat-2 altimeter data was developed to estimate sea ice freeboard and thickness values in the Antarctic. The algorithm was found to be more accurate than the ICESat-2 data product algorithm when compared to ship-based observational data.
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Wilton Aguiar, Sang-Ki Lee, Hosmay Lopez, Shenfu Dong, Helene Seroussi, Dani C. Jones, Adele K. Morrison
Summary: Melting of the ice sheet in the Southern Ocean has implications for the formation and properties of the Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW). Models have been used to examine the effects of different spatial distributions and magnitudes of meltwater fluxes on AABW. The study finds that a realistic and spatially varying meltwater flux can sustain AABW with higher salinities compared to uniform meltwater flux simulations. Furthermore, the increasing meltwater discharge from the Antarctic ice sheet can contribute to the observed freshening of AABW.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Wilma G. C. Huneke, William R. Hobbs, Andreas Klocker, Kaitlin A. Naughten
Summary: Observed Antarctic sea ice trends up to 2015 show distinct patterns in different regions and seasons. Global climate models have failed to reproduce these trends, suggesting a missing mechanism. Our study suggests that basal meltwater can intensify coastal currents and westward transport of sea ice, resulting in anomalies consistent with observations.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Mitchell Bushuk, Michael Winton, F. Alexander Haumann, Thomas Delworth, Feiyu Lu, Yongfei Zhang, Liwei Jia, Liping Zhang, William Cooke, Matthew Harrison, Bill Hurlin, Nathaniel C. Johnson, Sarah B. Kapnick, Colleen McHugh, Hiroyuki Murakami, Anthony Rosati, Kai-Chih Tseng, Andrew T. Wittenberg, Xiaosong Yang, Fanrong Zeng
Summary: The study compares the seasonal prediction skill and predictability of Antarctic sea ice using three coupled dynamical prediction systems. Each system is capable of skillfully predicting regional Antarctic sea ice extent, with the recently developed SPEAR systems showing more skill than FLOR. Zonally advected upper-ocean heat content anomalies are found to provide a crucial source of prediction skill for the winter sea ice edge position.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Deborah Verfaillie, Charles Pelletier, Hugues Goosse, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Christopher Y. S. Bull, Quentin Dalaiden, Vincent Favier, Thierry Fichefet, Jonathan D. Wille
Summary: The Southern Hemisphere cryosphere responds differently to climate change depending on the phases of the Southern Annular Mode. Positive phases lead to increased ice-shelf melt, while negative phases have the opposite effect. The study suggests that changes in the Southern Annular Mode can cause net basal mass loss in the Antarctic ice shelves, with regional variations.
COMMUNICATIONS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT
(2022)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Abhijith U. Venugopal, Nancy A. N. Bertler, Jeffrey P. Severinghaus, Edward J. Brook, Giuseppe Cortese, James E. Lee, Thomas Blunier, Paul A. Mayewski, Helle A. Kjaer, Lionel Carter, Michael E. Weber, Richard H. Levy, Rebecca L. Pyne, Marcus J. Vandergoes
Summary: This study demonstrates the importance of high-resolution ice core records from coastal Antarctica in understanding environmental changes. The researchers find an abrupt increase in dust concentration in ice cores, which is linked to a shift in Southern Hemisphere westerly winds and a decrease in atmospheric CO2.
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Stephy Libera, Will Hobbs, Andreas Klocker, Amelie Meyer, Richard Matear
Summary: This study investigates the predictability of sea ice and upper ocean at interannual timescales in the Weddell Sea region using model data. The study finds that the predictability of the ocean is largely influenced by sea ice processes and depends on the depth and stratification of the Winter Water layer. Predictability is lost when warm Circumpolar Deep Water without sea ice-related memory enters the mixed layer. This suggests that both sea ice and the vertical structure of the upper ocean are likely to change in a warming climate.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Tian R. Tian, Alexander D. Fraser, Thomas Lavergne, Sonya L. Fiddes, Chen Zhao, Petra Heil
Summary: Sea ice kinematics has significant impacts on the global ocean-atmosphere system, affecting albedo, ice cover, heat transmission, and ice thickness distribution. A new ice motion product called S2S shows promise in representing ice drift trajectories, but its application in ice kinematics research is yet to be explored. This study investigates Antarctic sea ice differential kinematic parameters using the S2S ice motion product and compares them with parameters derived from daily maps. The results indicate a strong correlation between S2S-derived parameters and time scale, as well as a relationship with ice thickness, suggesting the potential for proxy measurements of ice thickness.
REMOTE SENSING OF ENVIRONMENT
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Nicolas C. Jourdain, Pierre Mathiot, Clara Burgard, Justine Caillet, Christoph Kittel
Summary: Projections of the Antarctic Ice Sheet show that increased basal melting in the Amundsen Sea has the highest impact on future melt rates. However, there is limited understanding of the processes influencing this increase. Through simulations, it is found that the ice-shelf melt rates in the late 21st century are typically 1.4-2.2 times higher than present-day, resulting in an average basal mass loss increase of 346 Gt yr(-1). This increase is attributed to the advection of warmer water from distant locations and regional changes in Ekman downwelling and ice-shelf melt-induced circulation, while increased iceberg melt has no significant role. These findings suggest that previous high-end melt projections may have overestimated future sea level rise.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2022)
Article
Oceanography
Frederic Vivier, Antonio Lourenco, Elisabeth Michel, Ragnheid Skogseth, Clement Rousset, Bruno Lansard, Pascale Bouruet-Aubertot, Jacqueline Boutin, Bruno Bombled, Yannis Cuypers, Olivier Crispi, Dennis Dausse, Herve Le Goff, Gurvan Madec, Martin Vancoppenolle, Fanny Van der Linden, Claire Waelbroeck
Summary: Storfjorden, Svalbard, is an important source region of Brine-enriched Shelf Water (BSW) for the Arctic Ocean deep water reservoir. Recent observations have revealed changes in the hydrographic state of the area, including a decrease in Melt Water and Storfjorden Surface Water at the surface and intrusion of Atlantic Water (AW) into the fjord. These changes may be related to wind stress anomalies around Svalbard.
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Edward Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, Mitchell Bushuk, Francois Massonnet, Lawrence C. Hamilton, Cecilia M. Bitz, Walter N. Meier, Uma S. Bhatt
Summary: We evaluated the skill of Arctic September sea ice forecasts in the Sea Ice Outlook from 2008 to 2022. The multi-model median forecast initialized in June showed slightly higher skill than a damped anomaly forecast, while the July and August initialized forecasts did not perform better. The individual dynamical and statistical forecasts had lower skill compared to the multi-model median forecast. The overall skill was lower than expected based on retrospective forecasts. Some forecasts initialized in early September 2021 and 2022 had physically improbable values. Spatial forecasts of sea ice concentration showed skill in multi-model forecasts and improvement in individual forecast skill in recent years. Initial conditions exhibited large spread in sea ice volume and a positive correlation between initialized sea ice volume and September SIE forecast. Forecast error was influenced by summer weather.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Editorial Material
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Thomas Jung, Francois Massonnet, Irina Sandu
QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY
(2023)
Article
Oceanography
Marion Lebrun, Martin Vancoppenolle, Gurvan Madec, Marcel Babin, Guislain Becu, Antonio Lourenco, Daiki Nomura, Frederic Vivier, Bruno Delille
Summary: By analyzing observational records from the Northern Hemisphere sea ice zone over the past decade, it was found that snow depth, melt pond presence, and ice thickness can explain the observed variance in under-ice light intensity. Most parameterizations can reproduce variations in under-ice light intensity, but large errors remain for individual records.
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS
(2023)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Guillaume Ghisbain, Wim Thiery, Francois Massonnet, Diana Erazo, Pierre Rasmont, Denis Michez, Simon Dellicour
Summary: A quantitative study of past, present and future ecological suitability of Europe for bumblebees finds that for 38-76% of species now considered non-threatened, suitable territory could decrease by at least 30% by 2061-2080.
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Kenza Himmich, Martin Vancoppenolle, Gurvan Madec, Jean-Baptiste Sallee, Paul R. Holland, Marion Lebrun
Summary: This study investigates the processes driving the onset of the Antarctic sea ice season using remote sensing and in situ observations. The findings show that seawater freezing and drifting ice import are key factors for the advance of sea ice. The timing of sea ice retreat plays a crucial role in determining the heat stored in the summer ocean mixed layer, which is tightly linked to the advance dates.
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
(2023)
Article
Geography, Physical
Max Thomas, Briana Cate, Jack Garnett, Inga J. Smith, Martin Vancoppenolle, Crispin Halsall
Summary: We studied the impact of partial dissolution on the transportation of chemicals in sea ice. A brine convection model that accounts for decoupling of chemicals from convecting brine was developed and evaluated using observational data. Different decoupling schemes were tested, and it was found that decoupling based on a constant fraction of brine concentration or proportional to brine salinity showed better performance in agreement with observations. Our findings reveal that decoupling from convecting brine can enrich chemical concentrations in growing sea ice, highlighting the usefulness of brine convection modeling in studying complex chemical behaviors in sea ice.
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Katherine Hutchinson, Julie Deshayes, Christian Ethe, Clement Rousset, Casimir de Lavergne, Martin Vancoppenolle, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Pierre Mathiot
Summary: By simulating the circulation of Antarctic ice shelves, it was found that a grid resolution of 1 degree is sufficient to produce melt rate patterns and total melt fluxes that agree well with high-resolution models and satellite measurements. Allowing sub-ice shelf circulation reduces salinity biases, produces previously unresolved water masses, and reorganizes shelf circulation to better match observations. This study provides a NEMO configuration for improved representation of Antarctic continental shelf circulation and the precursors of Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW).
GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT
(2023)
Article
Geography, Physical
Xia Lin, Francois Massonnet, Thierry Fichefet, Martin Vancoppenolle
Summary: Atmospheric reanalyses are important for driving ocean-sea ice models and reconstructions of the polar ocean-sea ice system. Biases in the representation of sea ice in these reanalyses have been observed. This study investigates the sea ice concentration budget, surface fluxes, and ice drift simulations in different models to understand the improvements in the updated Japanese atmospheric reanalysis compared to a previous reanalysis. The findings suggest that changes in surface heat and wind fluxes play a significant role in reducing biases and improving the simulations in the Arctic and Antarctic regions.
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Yafei Nie, Chengkun Li, Martin Vancoppenolle, Bin Cheng, Fabio Boeira Dias, Xianqing Lv, Petteri Uotila
Summary: In this study, the sensitivity of 18 key NEMO4.0-SI3 model parameters on simulated Antarctic sea ice concentration (SIC) and sea ice volume (SIV) budgets in the Southern Ocean was investigated. It was found that the simulated SIC and SIV budgets are sensitive to several parameters, including ice strength, thermal conductivity of snow, ice categories, and drag coefficients. Optimizing the drag coefficients can reduce the difference between simulated and observed SIC budgets by about 10%.
GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT
(2023)
Article
Geography, Physical
Hugues Goosse, Sofia Allende Contador, Cecilia M. Bitz, Edward Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, Clare Eayrs, Thierry Fichefet, Kenza Himmich, Pierre-Vincent Huot, Francois Klein, Sylvain Marchi, Francois Massonnet, Bianca Mezzina, Charles Pelletier, Lettie Roach, Martin Vancoppenolle, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig
Summary: The seasonal cycle of Antarctic sea ice extent is asymmetric, with slow growth after summer followed by rapid decrease after winter. This cycle is linked to the seasonal insolation, but sea ice processes and exchanges with the atmosphere and ocean also play a role. Idealized sensitivity experiments were performed to quantify these contributions and found that the retreat of sea ice extent is influenced by surface albedo and sea ice transport modifications.
Article
Environmental Sciences
Tian R. Tian, Alexander D. Fraser, Thomas Lavergne, Sonya L. Fiddes, Chen Zhao, Petra Heil
Summary: Sea ice kinematics has significant impacts on the global ocean-atmosphere system, affecting albedo, ice cover, heat transmission, and ice thickness distribution. A new ice motion product called S2S shows promise in representing ice drift trajectories, but its application in ice kinematics research is yet to be explored. This study investigates Antarctic sea ice differential kinematic parameters using the S2S ice motion product and compares them with parameters derived from daily maps. The results indicate a strong correlation between S2S-derived parameters and time scale, as well as a relationship with ice thickness, suggesting the potential for proxy measurements of ice thickness.
REMOTE SENSING OF ENVIRONMENT
(2023)
Article
Geography, Physical
Stefan Kern, Thomas Lavergne, Leif Toudal Pedersen, Rasmus Tonboe, Louisa Be, Maybritt Meyer, Luise Zeigermann
Summary: This paper reports the results of a comparison of 10 global sea-ice concentration (SIC) data products based on satellite passive microwave observations. It emphasizes the importance of considering the entire SIC range and known biases in the products, and highlights the superior linear agreement between SICCI-2 products and the passive microwave SIC and Landsat SIC at higher resolutions.
Review
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Wei Zhang, Yu Sun, Yapeng Wu, Junyu Dong, Xiaojiang Song, Zhiyi Gao, Renbo Pang, Boyu Guoan
Summary: This study employed a spatiotemporal deep-learning method to correct biases in numerical ocean wave forecasts. By using a correction model driven by both wave and wind fields and a novel pixel-switch loss function, the corrected results performed well in different seasons and improved the accuracy of the original forecasts.