Evaluation of Use of Stage of Tobacco Epidemic to Predict Post-Immigration Smoking Behaviors

Introduction: This research uses the Lopez stage of tobacco epidemic model to evaluate post-immigration smoking behavior. Stage is a composite measure of tobacco norms of a country: smoking prevalence, cigarette consumption, and tobacco-related morbidity. The Lopez model characterizes the changing relationship between smoking prevalence and tobacco-related mortality and morbidity as a country progresses through the 4 successive stages of the tobacco epidemic. Methods: Survey data from Southeast Asian and Latino immigrants (from stage 1 and stage 2 countries) (n = 2,076) were used to evaluate stage of tobacco epidemic of country of emigration. Stage was compared with standard acculturation measures and community identification measures to understand post-immigration smoking behavior in the United States. Comparative analysis by stage and gender includes bivariate associations and logistic regression models to predict post-immigration smoking behavior. Results: Males: Pre-immigration prevalence and consumption rates of our study sample conform to prevalence and consumption of stage 1 and stage 2 countries predicted by the Lopez model. Post-immigration smoking uptake is equivalent to pre-immigration uptake for stage 1 males. The uptake rate for stage 2 males post-immigration is significantly lower (22.1%) than pre-immigration uptake (41.4%). Stage is a statistically significant predictor of post-immigration smoking uptake (OR = 3.08, CI = 1.82-5.22, p < .01). Females: Stage of country of birth is not significantly predictive of post-migration smoking uptake. Conclusions: The finding of stage to be a strong predictor of post-immigration smoking behavior among males provides a promising measurement tool. Prevalence and consumption of females in our study sample support the need for revisions to the stage model.