Estimating location and size of historical earthquake by combining archaeology and geology in Umm-El-Qanatir, Dead Sea Transform

We study the Byzantine-to-Ummayad (6th-8th century) archaeological site of Umm-El-Qanatir, located 10 km east of the Dead Sea Transform (DST) in northern Israel. The site was damaged by an earthquake-induced landslide, and in this work we use slope stability analysis to constrain the historical seismic acceleration that occurred along the northern segment of the DST. Umm-El-Qanatir archaeological site is located on a slope of a canyon and contains evidence for earthquake-related damage, including fallen columns and walls, horizontal shift of heavy masonry blocks, and complete burial of ceramic pots and farming tools beneath fallen ceilings. A water pool that collected spring water is displaced nearly one meter by the landslide. The artifacts from the village and the spring area indicate that people inhabited the site until the middle of the 8th century. We argue that the destruction, which forced the abandonment of Umm-El-Qanatir together with nearby settlements, was associated with the earthquake of January 18, 749 CE. In order to evaluate the ground acceleration related to the above earthquake, we back-analyze the stability of a failed slope, which cut and displaced the water-pool, using slope stability software (Slope/W). The results show that the slope is statically stable and that high values of horizontal seismic acceleration (> 0.3 g) are required to induce slope failure. Subsequently, we use the Newmark displacement method to calculate the earthquake magnitude needed to cause the slope failure as a function of distance from the site. The results (attributed to the 749 CE earthquake) show that a M-W > 7.0 earthquake up to 25 km from the site could have induced the studied landslide.