Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Jung Choi, Seok-Woo Son
Summary: This study evaluates the prediction skills of ENSO and PDO using large ensembles of retrospective decadal predictions. The results show that ENSO can be successfully predicted one year in advance using a multi-model ensemble reforecast, but predicting winter ENSO for multiple years requires a larger ensemble size. The prediction of PDO at a lead time of five-to-nine years is sourced from external radiative forcing instead of initialization, and the effect of model initialization only lasts for two years.
NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Jiale Lou, Matthew Newman, Andrew Hoell
Summary: Using model-analog technique, we examined multi-year predictability of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) since the late 1800s and found that ENSO exhibited notably high values of both amplitude and skill towards the end of the 19th century, and again in recent decades.
NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE
(2023)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Fenghua Ling, Jing-Jia Luo, Yue Li, Tao Tang, Lei Bai, Wanli Ouyang, Toshio Yamagata
Summary: This study challenges the long-standing problem of IOD prediction and proposes a multi-task deep learning model called MTL-NET. The model outperforms world-class dynamical models in predicting IOD and correctly captures the non-linear relationships between IOD and predictors.
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Riccardo Silini, Marcelo Barreiro, Cristina Masoller
Summary: The study shows that artificial neural networks (ANNs) can predict the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) effectively, with a prediction skill of up to 60 days in some cases. However, the amplitude of MJO is underestimated in the predictions.
NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Youngji Joh, Thomas L. Delworth, Andrew T. Wittenberg, William F. Cooke, Xiaosong Yang, Fanrong Zeng, Liwei Jia, Feiyu Lu, Nathaniel Johnson, Sarah B. Kapnick, Anthony Rosati, Liping Zhang, Colleen McHugh
Summary: This study explores the representation and prediction of the Kuroshio Extension (KE) using the GFDL SPEAR coupled model. The study shows that the model is able to skillfully predict the KE sea surface height variability on monthly and annual scales. The assimilation of subsurface observations is found to be crucial for accurately representing the narrow front and related oceanic variability of the KE jet in the coupled reanalysis.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Leon Hermanson, Doug Smith, Melissa Seabrook, Roberto Bilbao, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Etienne Tourigny, Vladimir Lapin, Viatcheslav V. Kharin, William J. Merryfield, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, Panos Athanasiadis, Dario Nicoli, Silvio Gualdi, Nick Dunstone, Rosie Eade, Adam Scaife, Mark Collier, Terence O'Kane, Vassili Kitsios, Paul Sandery, Klaus Pankatz, Barbara Frueh, Holger Pohlmann, Wolfgang Mueller, Takahito Kataoka, Hiroaki Tatebe, Masayoshi Ishii, Yukiko Imada, Tim Kruschke, Torben Koenigk, Mehdi Pasha Karami, Shuting Yang, Tian Tian, Liping Zhang, Tom Delworth, Xiaosong Yang, Fanrong Zeng, Yiguo Wang, Francois Counillon, Noel Keenlyside, Ingo Bethke, Judith Lean, Juerg Luterbacher, Rupa Kumar Kolli, Arun Kumar
Summary: As climate change accelerates, societies and climate-sensitive socioeconomic sectors need new methods to guide future adaptation efforts. Operational decadal predictions, like the ones provided by the WMO Lead Centre for Annual to Decadal Climate Predictions, can fill the gap between seasonal forecasts and climate projections. The collaboration produces skillful predictions that inform policy-makers about global climate trends and the probability of exceeding the Paris Agreement's temperature targets.
BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Zhen Lv, Jun-Chao Yang, Xiaopei Lin, Yu Zhang
Summary: This study suggests that the North Atlantic forcing plays a more significant role than the tropical Pacific forcing in the decadal prediction of sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the North Pacific. By removing the North Atlantic forcing, the prediction skill of NP SST decreases, indicating its strong contribution to the long-term prediction. The research emphasizes the need for improving the simulation of the Atlantic trans-basin effect for better predicting NP climate.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Giovanni Sgubin, Didier Swingedouw, Leonard F. Borchert, Matthew B. Menary, Thomas Noel, Harilaos Loukos, Juliette Mignot
Summary: Decadal Climate Predictions (DCP) have the potential to be effectively applied to targeted problems, with the study finding intermittent larger predictability conditions around the 1960s and after the 1980s. Systematic analysis shows that longer forecast periods generally imply better prediction skill, with the best predicted months mainly falling between late spring and early autumn.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Stephen G. G. Yeager, Ping Chang, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Nan Rosenbloom, Qiuying Zhang, Fred S. S. Castruccio, Abishek Gopal, M. Cameron Rencurrel, Isla R. R. Simpson
Summary: The impact of increased model horizontal resolution on climate prediction performance is examined by comparing results from low-resolution and high-resolution decadal prediction simulations. The results show general improvement in global skill and signal-to-noise characteristics, with notable improvements in the eastern tropical Pacific when resolution is increased. A key advance in the high-resolution ocean system is the reduction of unrealistic warming in the Southern Ocean, which has global ramifications for tropical Pacific multidecadal variability.
NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Matthew H. Rogers, Jason C. Furtado, Bruce T. Anderson
Summary: Persistent, multi-year shifts in atmospheric circulations, such as the Pacific Decadal Precession (PDP), have profound impacts on physical, biological, and socioeconomic systems. This study investigates the relationship between the PDP and central tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) variability. The results suggest that most climate models cannot accurately simulate the characteristics of the PDP and the dynamical connections between the tropical Pacific and the North Pacific climate variability.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Yujun He, Bin Wang, Lijuan Li, Juanjuan Liu, Yong Wang, Feifei Li
Summary: This study used the DRP-4DVar data assimilation method to make decadal predictions and found that the initialization of sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and Mediterranean plays a crucial role in predicting Sahel rainfall, and the skill of this prediction system is significantly higher than other systems that only use ocean analysis data.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Nick Dunstone, Julia Lockwood, Balakrishnan Solaraju-Murali, Katja Reinhardt, Eirini E. Tsartsali, Panos J. Athanasiadis, Alessio Bellucci, Anca Brookshaw, Louis-Philippe Caron, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, Barbara Fruh, Nube Gonzalez-Reviriego, Silvio Gualdi, Leon Hermanson, Stefano Materia, Andria Nicodemou, Dario Nicoli, Klaus Pankatz, Andreas Paxian, Adam Scaife, Doug Smith, Hazel E. Thornton
Summary: This study highlights the potential of decadal climate services and describes the development of four prototype climate service products in collaboration with users from agriculture, energy, infrastructure, and insurance sectors. However, to provide better services, more data and wider expertise are needed.
BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Nick Dunstone, Julia Lockwood, Balakrishnan Solaraju-Murali, Katja Reinhardt, Eirini E. Tsartsali, Panos J. Athanasiadis, Alessio Bellucci, Anca Brookshaw, Louis-Philippe Caron, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, Barbara Fruh, Nube Gonzalez-Reviriego, Silvio Gualdi, Leon Hermanson, Stefano Materia, Andria Nicodemou, Dario Nicoli, Klaus Pankatz, Andreas Paxian, Adam Scaife, Doug Smith, Hazel E. Thornton
Summary: This study highlights the potential of decadal climate services through four case studies and emphasizes the need for more user-centered products to meet the demands of various industries in adapting to climate change.
BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Yushi Morioka, Doroteaciro Iovino, Andrea Cipollone, Simona Masina, Swadhin K. Behera
Summary: Decadal sea ice variability in the west Antarctic seas can be skillfully predicted by initializing sea surface temperature, sea ice concentration, and subsurface ocean temperature and salinity from observations. Skillful prediction of decadal sea ice variability benefits from combined ocean and sea ice initializations.
COMMUNICATIONS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT
(2022)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Xia Lin, Francois Massonnet, Thierry Fichefet, Martin Vancoppenolle
Summary: The Sea Ice Evaluation Tool (SITool) is a performance metrics and diagnostics tool used to evaluate the skill of Arctic and Antarctic model reconstructions of sea ice. By assessing global sea ice reconstructions from nine models, it was found that model biases are larger than observational uncertainties, but overall performance is consistent. Changing the atmospheric forcing dataset could improve the simulated sea ice properties.
GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Sunil Kumar Pariyar, Noel Keenlyside, Wan-Ling Tseng, Huang-Hsiung Hsu, Ben-Jei Tsuang
Summary: This study investigates the impact of resolving air-sea interaction on the simulation of intraseasonal rainfall variability over the South Pacific. Results suggest that air-sea coupling and sea surface temperature variability play a crucial role in the intraseasonal rainfall variability. The coupled model best simulates the key characteristics of rainfall variability with reasonable propagation and periodicity.
Correction
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Ho-Nam Cheung, Noel Keenlyside, Torben Koenigk, Shuting Yang, Tian Tian, Zhiqing Xu, Yongqi Gao, Fumiaki Ogawa, Nour-Eddine Omrani, Shaobo Qiao, Wen Zhou
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Valentina Pivotti, Bruce T. Anderson, Annalisa Cherchi, Alessio Bellucci
Summary: The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a prominent mode of coupled variability that has significant impacts on global climate and weather patterns. Understanding and monitoring known ENSO precursors are crucial for accurate predictions. This study focuses on the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO)-related precursors, specifically the trade wind charging and the Northern Pacific meridional mode (TWC/NPMM). The findings show that the TWC/NPMM is a consistent precursor of ENSO, and its non-stationarity can influence the characteristic variability of ENSO. The study also demonstrates that certain HighResMIP models can reproduce this non-stationarity and its impact on ENSO variability.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Mugni Hadi Hariadi, Gerard van der Schrier, Gert-Jan Steeneveld, Dian Nur Ratri, Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan, Albert Klein Tank, Edvin Aldrian, Dodo Gunawan, Marie-Pierre Moine, Alessio Bellucci, Retish Senan, Etienne Tourigny, Dian Ariyani Putrasahan, Utoyo Ajie Linarka
Summary: This paper evaluates extreme rainfall climatic indices from regional climate models from CORDEX Southeast Asia and compares them with the results of high-resolution global climate models from the HighResMIP experiment. The observations indicate high rainfall intensity over areas affected by tropical cyclones and long dry periods in Indochina and Indonesia. The model simulations show that HighResMIP model experiments are more accurate in representing rainfall extremes compared to CORDEX models.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Martin P. King, Noel Keenlyside, Camille Li
Summary: The long-held assumption that ENSO has a remote influence on NAO in JFM months is questioned. This study uses filtered atmospheric data to examine this claim, finding statistically significant links between ENSO and both non-NAO and NAO variability. The teleconnection of extreme El Nino is identified as a non-NAO phenomenon. Implications for understanding ENSO teleconnections in the North Atlantic and refining evaluation methods are discussed.
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Edward Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, Mitchell Bushuk, Francois Massonnet, Lawrence C. Hamilton, Cecilia M. Bitz, Walter N. Meier, Uma S. Bhatt
Summary: We evaluated the skill of Arctic September sea ice forecasts in the Sea Ice Outlook from 2008 to 2022. The multi-model median forecast initialized in June showed slightly higher skill than a damped anomaly forecast, while the July and August initialized forecasts did not perform better. The individual dynamical and statistical forecasts had lower skill compared to the multi-model median forecast. The overall skill was lower than expected based on retrospective forecasts. Some forecasts initialized in early September 2021 and 2022 had physically improbable values. Spatial forecasts of sea ice concentration showed skill in multi-model forecasts and improvement in individual forecast skill in recent years. Initial conditions exhibited large spread in sea ice volume and a positive correlation between initialized sea ice volume and September SIE forecast. Forecast error was influenced by summer weather.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Filippa Fransner, Are Olsen, Marius Arthun, Francois Counillon, Jerry Tjiputra, Annette Samuelsen, Noel Keenlyside
Summary: The abundance of phytoplankton in the Barents Sea can be predicted up to five years in advance using the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model. This prediction is achieved through the advection of waters with anomalous nitrate concentrations and the influence of summer ice concentration on light availability. Skillful prediction of phytoplankton abundance is an important step in the development of numerical ecosystem predictions of the Barents Sea.
COMMUNICATIONS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Hyacinth C. Nnamchi, Riccardo Farneti, Noel S. Keenlyside, Fred Kucharski, Mojib Latif, Annika Reintges, Thomas Martin
Summary: An analysis of observations from 1900 to 2009 suggests that variations in Atlantic Ocean circulation on timescales of 10 to 15 years lead to the pan-Atlantic Decadal Oscillation, a pattern of north-south bands of temperature anomalies, and may exert an important influence. The study uncovers ocean circulation variability associated with the pan-Atlantic decadal oscillation and reveals that ocean circulation plays an active role in the climate oscillation. The findings challenge the prevailing theories based on thermodynamic air-sea interactions and bring a better understanding of the Atlantic climate.
COMMUNICATIONS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT
(2023)
Review
Environmental Sciences
Terence J. O'Kane, Adam A. Scaife, Yochanan Kushnir, Anca Brookshaw, Carlo Buontempo, David Carlin, Richenda K. Connell, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Nick Dunstone, Kristian Foerster, Antonio Graca, Alistair J. Hobday, Vassili Kitsios, Larissa van der Laan, Julia Lockwood, William J. Merryfield, Andreas Paxian, Mark R. Payne, M. Catherine Reader, Geoffrey R. Saville, Doug Smith, Balakrishnan Solaraju-Murali, Nico Caltabiano, Jessie Carman, Ed Hawkins, Noel Keenlyside, Arun Kumar, Daniela Matei, Holger Pohlmann, Scott Power, Marilyn Raphael, Michael Sparrow, Bo Wu
Summary: Thanks to recent efforts, near-term climate predictions (NTCP) now fill the gap between seasonal forecasts and climate change projections, offering seamless climate services. This technical achievement combines advanced initialization and ensemble prediction to forecast future climate up to a decade ahead. With a growing NTCP database, decision-makers in key sectors can now evaluate the utility of these predictions for climate risk assessment and long-term planning.
FRONTIERS IN CLIMATE
(2023)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Guillaume Ghisbain, Wim Thiery, Francois Massonnet, Diana Erazo, Pierre Rasmont, Denis Michez, Simon Dellicour
Summary: A quantitative study of past, present and future ecological suitability of Europe for bumblebees finds that for 38-76% of species now considered non-threatened, suitable territory could decrease by at least 30% by 2061-2080.
Article
Environmental Sciences
Tim Busker, Hans de Moel, Bart van den Hurk, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Summary: The Horn of Africa is facing a severe and prolonged drought, caused by consecutive failed rainy seasons. This study investigates the potential for early action for droughts by using seasonal forecasts, and shows that these forecasts have significant economic value for triggering early action in Kenya and Somalia.
SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Emma E. Aalbers, Erik van Meijgaard, Geert Lenderink, Hylke de Vries, Bart J. J. M. van den Hurk
Summary: Projections of changes in extreme droughts under future climate conditions are associated with large uncertainties. This study investigates the impact of global warming on soil moisture drought severity in west-central Europe. The results show that global warming will significantly increase drought risk in the region.
NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Bart J. J. M. van den Hurk, Marina Baldissera Pacchetti, Esther Boere, Alessio Ciullo, Liese Coulter, Suraje Dessai, Ertug Ercin, Henrique M. D. Goulart, Raed Hamed, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Elco Koks, Patryk Kubiczek, Anders Levermann, Reinhard Mechler, Maarten van Meersbergen, Benedikt Mester, Robin Middelanis, Katie Minderhoud, Jaroslav Mysiak, Sadhana Nirandjan, Gijs van den Oord, Christian Otto, Paul Sayers, Jacob Schewe, Theodore G. Shepherd, Jana Sillmann, Dana Stuparu, Thomas Vogt, Katrien Witpas
Summary: Physical climate storylines are proposed as a method to explore complex impact transmission pathways and event cascades under future climate conditions. They are useful for climate risk assessment in complex domains. Development guidelines are needed to consistently develop and interpret the storyline event analyses for effective role in climate risks assessments.
CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT
(2023)
Article
Geography, Physical
Xia Lin, Francois Massonnet, Thierry Fichefet, Martin Vancoppenolle
Summary: Atmospheric reanalyses are important for driving ocean-sea ice models and reconstructions of the polar ocean-sea ice system. Biases in the representation of sea ice in these reanalyses have been observed. This study investigates the sea ice concentration budget, surface fluxes, and ice drift simulations in different models to understand the improvements in the updated Japanese atmospheric reanalysis compared to a previous reanalysis. The findings suggest that changes in surface heat and wind fluxes play a significant role in reducing biases and improving the simulations in the Arctic and Antarctic regions.
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Dario Nicoli, Alessio Bellucci, Paolo Ruggieri, Panos J. Athanasiadis, Stefano Materia, Daniele Peano, Giusy Fedele, Riccardo Henin, Silvio Gualdi
Summary: Decadal climate predictions, obtained by constraining the initial condition of a dynamical model through a truthful estimate of the observed climate state, provide an accurate assessment of near-term climate change and are a useful tool to inform decision-makers on future climate-related risks.
GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT
(2023)