Article
Agriculture, Dairy & Animal Science
M. A. Stephen, C. R. Burke, N. Steele, J. E. Pryce, S. Meier, P. R. Amer, C. V. C. Phyn, D. J. Garrick
Summary: In this study, the genetic and phenotypic relationships between anogenital distance (AGD) and body stature and fertility traits in dairy cattle were characterized. The results showed that AGD is a moderately heritable trait and is associated with reproductive success in lactating cows.
JOURNAL OF DAIRY SCIENCE
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Yuxin Zhang, Jianxi Huang, Hai Huang, Xuecao Li, Yunxiang Jin, Hao Guo, Quanlong Feng, Yuanyuan Zhao
Summary: This study investigates a new method that combines remote sensing data assimilation technology and a grassland process-based model to estimate regional grassland biomass, focusing on improving simulation accuracy and revealing mechanism interpretability of grassland growth processes. The aboveground grassland biomass of Xilinhot City shows specific spatial distribution patterns, and data assimilation improves accuracy.
Article
Engineering, Civil
Pengfei Shi, Tao Yang, Bin Yong, Chong-Yu Xu, Zhenya Li, Xiaoyan Wang, Youwei Qin, Xudong Zhou
Summary: The Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method is increasingly popular in uncertainty analysis of hydrological simulation. However, the estimation of the constant standard deviation (02) in the approach is subjective, hindering performance improvement. This study investigates the statistical meaning of parameter 02 and develops a new label called Confidence Level of Model (CLM) to interpret it. The MCMC method based on CLM performs well in generating regular posterior distributions and narrow, symmetrical confidence intervals.
JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
(2023)
Article
Agriculture, Dairy & Animal Science
Melissa A. Stephen, Chris R. Burke, Jennie E. Pryce, Nicole M. Steele, Peter R. Amer, Susanne Meier, Claire V. C. Phyn, Dorian J. Garrick
Summary: This study compared three methods for deriving phenotypes from incomplete data. The results showed that estimated heritabilities tended to be higher when left censoring was reduced. For sires, using some methods, phenotypes derived from one observation per offspring provided comparable sire rankings to three observations per offspring.
JOURNAL OF ANIMAL SCIENCE AND BIOTECHNOLOGY
(2023)
Article
Geochemistry & Geophysics
Hai Huang, Jianxi Huang, Yantong Wu, Wen Zhuo, Jianjian Song, Xuecao Li, Li Li, Wei Su, Han Ma, Shunlin Liang
Summary: This study aims to better quantify model uncertainty in a data assimilation system. The proposed Bayesian posterior-based ensemble Kalman filter improves the accuracy of winter wheat yield estimation compared to traditional methods and provides an important reference for similar agricultural landscapes worldwide at the regional scale.
IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON GEOSCIENCE AND REMOTE SENSING
(2023)
Article
Energy & Fuels
Xiaoyan Qiu, Hang Zhang, Yiwei Qiu, Yi Zhou, Tianlei Zang, Buxiang Zhou, Ruomei Qi, Jin Lin, Jiepeng Wang
Summary: Utility-scale hydrogen production via alkaline electrolysis is an effective way to reduce carbon emissions in various industries. The efficiency, flexibility, and safety of the alkaline electrolysis system are influenced by electrochemical, thermal, and mass transfer dynamics. However, the lack of a comprehensive parameter estimation method has hindered the accuracy and adaptability of existing models. To address this, a fast and accurate parameter estimation method based on Bayesian inference and Markov chain Monte Carlo is proposed. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of this method in improving estimation accuracy and providing fault diagnosis and sensitivity analysis for alkaline electrolysis systems.
Article
Construction & Building Technology
Hui Qin, Yu Tang, Zhengzheng Wang, Xiongyao Xie, Donghao Zhang
Summary: A probabilistic inversion method is proposed to infer the grouting layer thickness, relative permittivity, and electric conductivity values from GPR waveform data. The method successfully estimates the grouting layer thickness in a synthetic example, and the impact of modeling error on the inversion results is investigated. Correcting the modeling error allows the posterior model parameters to converge correctly to their true values and quantify associated uncertainties.
TUNNELLING AND UNDERGROUND SPACE TECHNOLOGY
(2021)
Article
Engineering, Mechanical
Adolphus Lye, Alice Cicirello, Edoardo Patelli
Summary: This tutorial paper reviews the use of advanced Monte Carlo sampling methods in Bayesian model updating for engineering applications, introducing different methods and comparing their performance. Three case studies demonstrate the advantages and limitations of these sampling techniques in parameter identification, posterior distribution sampling, and stochastic identification of model parameters.
MECHANICAL SYSTEMS AND SIGNAL PROCESSING
(2021)
Article
Physics, Multidisciplinary
Christopher G. Albert, Ulrich Callies, Udo von Toussaint
Summary: This study focuses on Bayesian analysis for calibrating process-oriented environmental models, emphasizing the representation of dependencies and distributions among parameters. Model parameters are estimated using Bayesian inference via Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling, providing a joint probability distribution for parameters. The Bayesian approach allows the incorporation of prior knowledge and highlights the extent to which parameters are constrained by observations.
Article
Soil Science
Siegfried C. K. Hofman, D. J. Brus
Summary: This study utilized a geo-statistical simulation approach to predict the variance of mean NO3-N content in agricultural fields, revealing a large variation in NO3-N variance among the sixteen fields.
Article
Computer Science, Artificial Intelligence
Arpit Kapoor, Eshwar Nukala, Rohitash Chandra
Summary: The major challenge in Bayesian neural networks is to develop effective sampling methods for addressing deep neural networks and big data-related problems. This paper proposes a synergy of neuroevolution and Bayesian neural networks, utilizing particle swarm optimization as efficient proposal distributions in tempered MCMC sampling. The results demonstrate improved prediction accuracy and reduced computational time compared to traditional methods for time-series and pattern classification problems.
APPLIED SOFT COMPUTING
(2022)
Article
Engineering, Geological
Chao Zhao, Wenping Gong, Tianzheng Li, C. Hsein Juang, Huiming Tang, Hui Wang
Summary: Accurate characterization of subsurface stratigraphic configuration is crucial to geotechnical engineering work, but uncertainty can be significant due to complexity and limited data availability. This paper presents a method for characterizing subsurface stratigraphy with limited borehole data, demonstrating its effectiveness and advantages through comparative analyses and a case study in Western Australia.
ENGINEERING GEOLOGY
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Hui Qin, Zhengzheng Wang, Yu Tang, Tiesuo Geng
Summary: The paper presents a probabilistic inversion algorithm using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations within the Bayesian framework to infer the posterior distribution of relative permittivity. It is found that using the FDTD model with waveform data successfully infers the correct model parameters, while using first-arrival traveltime data requires an unreasonable number of model evaluations and fails to recover the real relative permittivity field. The smooth constraint of model parameters as the prior distribution significantly improves the inversion results using first-arrival traveltime data by decreasing computing time and reducing uncertainties of the posterior distribution.
Article
Energy & Fuels
Benjamin P. M. Laevens, Frank P. Pijpers, Harm Jan Boonstra, Wilfried G. J. H. M. Sark, Olav ten Bosch
Summary: This study presents a novel method for determining the installation parameters of photovoltaic systems. By using openly available data and comparing with actual data, the results show that the method is accurate and reliable.
Article
Computer Science, Software Engineering
John Taylor Chavis, Amy Louise Cochran, Christopher James Earls
Summary: CU-MSDSp is a parallel RJMCMC implementation that aims to increase accessibility of RJMCMC to practitioners. It independently forms Markov Chains to approximate the posterior distribution of model parameters, and uses these approximations to estimate the posterior distribution of the model space. This software eliminates the need for designing a trans-dimensional proposal distribution, while ensuring the same theoretical guarantees as the non-parallel algorithm.
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Chad R. Wells, Abhishek Pandey, Alyssa S. Parpia, Meagan C. Fitzpatrick, Lauren A. Meyers, Burton H. Singer, Alison P. Galvani
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
(2019)
Editorial Material
Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
Abhishek Pandey, Alison P. Galvani
LANCET GLOBAL HEALTH
(2019)
Article
Immunology
Martial L. Ndeffo-Mbah, Abhishek Pandey
JOURNAL OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES
(2020)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Chad R. Wells, Abhishek Pandey, Martial L. Ndeffo Mbah, Bernard-A. Gauzere, Denis Malvy, Burton H. Singer, Alison P. Galvani
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
(2019)
Article
Infectious Diseases
Martial L. Ndeffo-Mbah, Abhishek Pandey, Katherine E. Atkins, Serap Aksoy, Alison P. Galvani
PLOS NEGLECTED TROPICAL DISEASES
(2019)
Letter
Infectious Diseases
Chad R. Wells, Meagan C. Fitzpatrick, Pratha Sah, Affan Shoukat, Abhishek Pandey, Abdulrahman M. El-Sayed, Burton H. Singer, Seyed M. Moghadas, Alison P. Galvani
LANCET INFECTIOUS DISEASES
(2020)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Chad R. Wells, Amit Huppert, Meagan C. Fitzpatrick, Abhishek Pandey, Baruch Velan, Burton H. Singer, Chris T. Bauch, Alison P. Galvani
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
(2020)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Seyed M. Moghadas, Affan Shoukat, Meagan C. Fitzpatrick, Chad R. Wells, Pratha Sah, Abhishek Pandey, Jeffrey D. Sachs, Zheng Wang, Lauren A. Meyers, Burton H. Singer, Alison P. Galvani
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
(2020)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Chad R. Wells, Pratha Sah, Seyed M. Moghadas, Abhishek Pandey, Affan Shoukat, Yaning Wang, Zheng Wang, Lauren A. Meyers, Burton H. Singer, Alison P. Galvani
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
(2020)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Seyed M. Moghadas, Meagan C. Fitzpatrick, Pratha Sah, Abhishek Pandey, Affan Shoukat, Burton H. Singer, Alison P. Galvani
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
(2020)
Letter
Medicine, General & Internal
Meagan C. Fitzpatrick, Abhishek Pandey, Chad R. Wells, Pratha Sah, Alison P. Galvani
Article
Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
Zhanwei Du, Abhishek Pandey, Yuan Bai, Meagan C. Fitzpatrick, Matteo Chinazzi, Ana Pastore y Piontti, Michael Lachmann, Alessandro Vespignani, Benjamin J. Cowling, Alison P. Galvani, Lauren Ancel Meyers
Summary: This study aimed to evaluate the economic trade-offs of expanding and accelerating testing for SARS-CoV-2 across the USA in different transmission scenarios. The findings suggest that weekly testing combined with a 2-week isolation period is the most cost-effective strategy under rapid transmission scenarios, while monthly testing with a 1-week isolation period is most cost-effective under low transmission scenarios.
LANCET PUBLIC HEALTH
(2021)
Article
Infectious Diseases
Anuj Mubayi, Abhishek Pandey, Christine Brasic, Anamika Mubayi, Parijat Ghosh, Aditi Ghosh
Summary: Obtaining reasonable estimates for transmission rates when using mathematical models to study infectious diseases is challenging due to factors such as environmental conditions, social behaviors, and public health interventions affecting the variability of these rates during outbreaks. Analytical estimates of time-dependent transmission rates can capture the dynamics of the problem better, showing large variations depending on available data and other epidemiological parameters. Time-dependent estimation of transmission rates can help understand disease progression more accurately.
TROPICAL MEDICINE AND INFECTIOUS DISEASE
(2021)
Article
Medicine, General & Internal
Alyssa S. Parpia, Isabel Martinez, Abdulrahman M. El-Sayed, Chad R. Wells, Lindsey Myers, Jeffrey Duncan, Jim Collins, Meagan C. Fitzpatrick, Alison P. Galvani, Abhishek Pandey
Summary: The study found that Black individuals in Michigan are experiencing 3.6 times the mortality rate of White individuals due to COVID-19, with Black individuals under 65 years without comorbidities having a mortality rate 12.6 times that of White counterparts. Even after adjusting for age, race, sex, and comorbidities, Black individuals are at higher risk of COVID-19 mortality than White individuals.
Letter
Medicine, General & Internal
Alison P. Galvani, Alyssa S. Parpia, Abhishek Pandey, Charlotte Zimmer, James G. Kahn, Meagan C. Fitzpatrick
