期刊
MANAGEMENT SCIENCE
卷 58, 期 4, 页码 805-810出版社
INFORMS
DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.1110.1441
关键词
combining forecasts; optimal groups; information aggregation
资金
- National Science Foundation IGERT
- Army Research Office [W911NF1010379]
This paper characterizes the optimal composition of a group for making a combined forecast. In the model, individual forecasters have types defined according to a statistical criterion we call type coherence. Members of the same type have identical expected accuracy, and forecasters within a type have higher covariance than forecasters of different types. We derive the optimal group composition as a function of predictive accuracy, between- and within-type covariance, and group size. Group size plays a critical role in determining the optimal group: in small groups the most accurate type should be in the majority, whereas in large groups the type with the least within-type covariance should dominate.
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