期刊
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
卷 112, 期 37, 页码 11496-11501出版社
NATL ACAD SCIENCES
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1501781112
关键词
regime shifts; North Pacific; marine ecosystems; abrupt change; climate change
资金
- Research on Changes of Variability and Environmental Risk (RECoVER) - EPSRC [EP/M008495/1]
- PhD Studentship - University of Exeter, United Kingdom
- Royal Society Wolfson Research Merit Award
- EU [603864]
- Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council [EP/M008495/1, EP/K003216/1] Funding Source: researchfish
- Natural Environment Research Council [NE/F005474/2, NE/F005474/1] Funding Source: researchfish
- EPSRC [EP/M008495/1, EP/K003216/1] Funding Source: UKRI
- NERC [NE/F005474/1, NE/F005474/2] Funding Source: UKRI
Marine ecosystems are sensitive to stochastic environmental variability, with higher-amplitude, lower-frequency-i.e., redder-variability posing a greater threat of triggering large ecosystem changes. Here we show that fluctuations in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index have slowed down markedly over the observational record (1900-present), as indicated by a robust increase in autocorrelation. This reddening of the spectrum of climate variability is also found in regionally averaged North Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs), and can be at least partly explained by observed deepening of the ocean mixed layer. The progressive reddening of North Pacific climate variability has important implications for marine ecosystems. Ecosystem variables that respond linearly to climate forcing will have become prone to much larger variations over the observational record, whereas ecosystem variables that respond nonlinearly to climate forcing will have become prone to more frequent regime shifts. Thus, slowing down of North Pacific climate variability can help explain the large magnitude and potentially the quick succession of well-known abrupt changes in North Pacific ecosystems in 1977 and 1989. When looking ahead, despite model limitations in simulating mixed layer depth (MLD) in the North Pacific, global warming is robustly expected to decrease MLD. This could potentially reverse the observed trend of slowing down of North Pacific climate variability and its effects on marine ecosystems.
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