The impact of vaccine side effects on the natural history of immunization programmes: An imitation-game approach

When the incidence and prevalence of most common vaccine preventable childhood infectious diseases are constantly low, as is the case in many industrialized countries, the incidence of vaccine-associated side effects might become a key determinant in vaccine demand. We study an SIR transmission model with dynamic vaccine demand based on an imitation mechanism where the perceived risk of vaccination is modelled as a function of the incidence of vaccine side effects. The model shows some important differences compared to previous game dynamic models of vaccination, and allows noteworthy inferences as regards both the past and future lifetime of vaccination programmes. In particular it is suggested that a huge disproportion between the perceived risk of disease and vaccination is necessary in order to achieve high coverages. This disproportion is further increased in highly industrialised countries. Such considerations represent serious challenges for future vaccination programmes. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.