期刊
JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY
卷 265, 期 2, 页码 136-150出版社
ACADEMIC PRESS LTD- ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2010.04.003
关键词
Influenza pandemic; Optimal control; Antiviral treatment; Isolation
资金
- National Science Foundation (NSF) [DMS-0502349]
- National Security Agency (NSA) [H98230-06-1-0097]
- Alfred T. Sloan Foundation
- Office of the Provost of Arizona State University
- Division Of Mathematical Sciences
- Direct For Mathematical & Physical Scien [0838705] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
The implementation of optimal control strategies involving antiviral treatment and/or isolation measures can reduce significantly the number of clinical cases of influenza. Pandemic-level control measures must be carefully assessed specially in resource-limited situations. A model for the transmission dynamics of influenza is used to evaluate the impact of isolation and/or antiviral drug delivery measures during an influenza pandemic. Five pre-selected control strategies involving antiviral treatment and isolation are tested under the unlimited resource assumption followed by an exploration of the impact of these optimal policies when resources are limited in the context of a 1918-type influenza pandemic scenario. The implementation of antiviral treatment at the start of a pandemic tends to reduce the magnitude of epidemic peaks, spreading the maximal impact of an outbreak over an extended window in time. Hence, the controls' timing and intensity can reduce the pressures placed on the health care infrastructure by a pandemic reducing the stress put on the system during epidemic peaks. The role of isolation strategies is highlighted in this study particularly when access to antiviral resources is limited. (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
作者
我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。
推荐
暂无数据